Prediction Model Risk-of-Bias Assessment Tool for coronary artery lesions in Kawasaki disease

Nomogram model based on serum chitotriosidase activity to predict coronary artery aneurysm in Kawasaki disease

OBJECTIVE

Kawasaki disease (KD) is a common children's disease with unknown etiology, which easily involves coronary artery and causes serious cardiovascular sequelae. The purpose was to investigate the relationship between chitotriosidase activity and coronary artery aneurysm (CAA) and develop and validate a nomogram to predict CAA in KD patients.

METHODS

A total of 338 KD patients were included in this study. Differences analysis compared baseline characteristics and multivariate logistic regression analysis to determine independent risk factors for CAA in KD patients. Based on this independent risk factor, the nomogram was constructed and validated.

RESULTS

Of 338 KD patients, 107 patients developed CAA. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified that low-density lipoprotein (LDL) [odds ratio (OR):1.456, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.062-1.996], age (OR: 0.986, 95% CI: 0.974-0.998), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) (OR: 1.098, 95% CI: 1.020-1.182), and chitotriosidase activity (OR: 1.115, 95% CI: 1.111-1.192) were independent predictors for CAA. The nomogram was established based on serum chitotriosidase activity and clinical characteristics, and this nomogram has demonstrated to be of potential value in clinical practice using the receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis.

CONCLUSION

LDL, age, NLR, and chitotriosidase activity were independent risk factors for CAA. Based on this independent risk factor, the nomogram was constructed to guide clinicians to effectively predict CAA and adopt appropriate interventions such as more aggressive anti-inflammatory and more frequent follow-up.

[Predictive indicators and risk model construction for coronary artery lesions in Kawasaki disease children over 5 years old]

OBJECTIVES

To study predictive indicators for coronary artery lesions (CAL) and construct a risk prediction model for CAL in Kawasaki disease (KD) children over 5 years old.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of KD children over 5 years old at Wuhan Children's Hospital of Tongji Medical College of Huazhong University of Science and Technology from January 2018 to January 2023 was conducted. Among them, 47 cases were complicated with CAL, and 178 cases were not. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to explore predictive indicators for CAL in KD children over 5 years old and construct a risk prediction model. The receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate the effectiveness of the prediction model. Finally, the Framingham risk scoring method was used to quantify the predictive indicators, calculate the contribution of each indicator to the prediction of CAL in KD children over 5 years old, and construct a risk prediction scoring model.

RESULTS

The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the duration of fever before the initial intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) treatment (OR=1.374, 95%CI: 1.117-1.689), levels of hypersensitive C-reactive protein (hs-CRP; OR=1.008, 95%CI: 1.001-1.015), and serum ferritin levels (OR=1.002, 95%CI: 1.001-1.003) were predictive indicators for CAL in KD children over 5 years old. The optimal cutoff values for predicting CAL were: duration of fever before initial IVIG treatment of 6.5 days (AUC=0.654, 95%CI: 0.565-0.744), hs-CRP of 110.50 mg/L (AUC=0.686, 95%CI: 0.597-0.774), and ferritin of 313.62 mg/L (AUC=0.724, 95%CI: 0.642-0.805). According to the Framingham risk scoring method, the low, medium, and high-risk states of CAL occurrence were defined as probabilities of <10%, 10%-20%, and >20%, respectively, with corresponding scores of 0-4 points, 5-6 points, and ≥7 points.

CONCLUSIONS

In KD children over 5 years old, those with a longer duration of fever before initial IVIG treatment, higher levels of hs-CRP, or elevated serum ferritin levels are more likely to develop CAL.

A bibliometric analysis of Kawasaki disease from 1974 to 2022

Objective

To analyse the research history, development trends and current status of relevant literature in the field of Kawasaki disease, and to provide the basis for future directions in Kawasaki disease (KD) research.

Methods

Literature on Kawasaki disease published between January 1974 and December 2022 was searched for in the Web of Science database, and CiteSpace was used to perform visual analyses.

Results

The search yielded a total of 6950 articles. The number of publications related to Kawasaki disease showed an increasing trend. A collaborative network analysis revealed that the United States, Japan and mainland China were the most influential countries in this field. The University of California system contributed the most publications and the journal with the most publications was Circulation. JW Newburger was an authoritative author in this field. "Coronary artery lesion", "Intravenous immunoglobulin" (IVIG) and "Risk factor" were three prominent keywords. Keyword bursts changed from "TNF" and "IVIG", which focused on aetiology and treatment, to "Long term management", which emphasized the recovery period, and to "Kawasaki-like disease" and "Multisystem inflammatory syndrome" during the novel coronavirus pandemic. Trends of highly cited references indicated that landmark articles in different periods focused on Kawasaki disease guidelines, gene polymorphisms and multisystem inflammatory syndrome caused by the novel coronavirus.

Conclusion

The aetiology of Kawasaki disease remains unclear, but viral infection is likely to play an important role. The combination of evolving sequencing technologies, large-scale epidemiological investigations and prospective cohort studies is likely to be important in exploring Kawasaki disease and improving its prognosis in future.

[Platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio as a biomarker for predicting coronary artery lesions in Chinese children with Kawasaki disease: a Meta analysis]

OBJECTIVES

To systematically evaluate the value of the platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) in predicting coronary artery lesions (CAL) in Chinese children with Kawasaki Disease (KD).

METHODS

A comprehensive search was conducted in databases including PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Wanfang Data, China Biomedical Literature Database, and China Science and Technology Journal Database from inception to December 2022. The quality of the included literature was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale, and a Meta analysis was performed using Stata 15.1.

RESULTS

A total of ten published reports, involving 3 664 Chinese children with KD, were included in this Meta analysis, of whom 1 328 developed CAL. The Meta analysis revealed a sensitivity of 0.78 (95%CI: 0.71-0.83), specificity of 0.71 (95%CI: 0.61-0.80), overall diagnostic odds ratio of 8.69 (95%CI: 5.02-15.06), and an area under the curve of the summary receiver operating characteristic of 0.82 (95%CI: 0.78-0.85) for PLR in predicting CAL in the children with KD. The sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve of summary receiver operating characteristic were lower for PLR alone compared to PLR in combination with other indicators. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated the stability of the Meta analysis results with no significant changes upon excluding individual studies. However, a significant publication bias was observed (P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

PLR demonstrates certain predictive value for CAL in Chinese children with KD.

Relationship between IL-17A gene polymorphism and susceptibility to Kawasaki disease

OBJECTIVES

Kawasaki disease (KD) is the most common autoimmune vasculitis syndrome in children, which supposed be a complex polygenic disorder. Interleukin-17 (IL-17) is a member of the pro-inflammatory cytokine family, which has a strong pro-inflammatory effect and can participate in various acute and chronic inflammatory responses. This study aims to investigate the relationship between the single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) locus rs3819025 in the IL-17A gene and the susceptibility to KD.

METHODS

A total of 120 patients with KD who met the diagnostic criteria (the KD group) and 120 healthy children (the control group) were enrolled retrospectively in this study. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and DNA direct sequencing were used to detect the SNPs of children in the 2 groups.

RESULTS

The frequencies of GG, GA, and AA genotypes of rs3819025 locus in the IL-17A gene in the KD group were 82.5%, 17.5%, and 0, respectively, and the frequencies of GG, GA, and AA genotypes in the control group were 72.5%, 22.5%, and 5.0%, respectively. There were significant differences in both genotype (χ2=7.524, P=0.023). The allele frequencies G and A of rs3819025 locus in the KD group were 91.25% and 8.75%, respectively, while those in the control group were 83.75% and 16.25%, respectively. There was significant difference between the 2 groups (χ2=6.171, P=0.013). The distribution frequencies of GG or GA genotype and G or A allele were 88.46% or 11.54% and 94.23% or 5.77% in the KD group with coronary artery lesion, respectively. The distribution frequencies of GG or GA genotype and G or A allele were 78.72% or 21.28% and 89.36% or 10.64% in the KD group without coronary artery lesion, respectively. There were no significant differences in genotype and allele frequencies of rs3819025 between the KD with coronary artery lesion group and the KD group without coronary artery lesion (both P>0.05). Besides, children with the allele A had a 2.023 times higher risk of KD than those without the allele A (χ2=6.171, P=0.013; OR=2.023, 95% CI 1.151 to 3.557).

CONCLUSIONS

The locus rs3819025 in the IL-17A gene is associated with the pathogenesis of KD. The allele A of the locus rs3819025 in the IL-17A gene may be a risk factor for KD.