Tumor Macroscopic Morphology Is an Important Prognostic Factor in Predicting Chemotherapeutic Efficacy and Clinical Outcomes of Patients With Colorectal Neuroendocrine Neoplasms, One Multicenter Retrospective Cohort Study

Construction and evaluation of the prediction model for advanced disease in well-differentiated colorectal neuroendocrine neoplasms less than 2 cm in diameter

Objective

Advanced lesions are often ignored in well-differentiated colorectal neuroendocrine neoplasms (NENs) smaller than 2 cm, and we aimed to develop an effective nomogram for these lesions.

Methods

We extracted data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and used a logistic regression model to identify independent risk factors for advanced disease. All these identified factors were included to construct the prediction model, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration plot and DCA curve were utilized to assess the predictive value. The data obtained from the National Cancer Center were utilized for external validation.

Results

In total, 3223 patients were enrolled in the training set, including 2947 (91.4 %) with early disease and 276 (8.6 %) with advanced disease. The logistic analysis showed that age (odds ratio (OR) = 1.486, 95 % confidence interval (CI): 1.102-2.003, P = 0.009), tumor size (OR = 11.071, 95 % CI: 8.229-14.893, P < 0.001), tumor location (OR = 7.882, 95 % CI: 5.784-10.743, P < 0.001) and tumor grade (OR = 1.768, 95 % CI: 1.206-2.593, P = 0.004) were independent variables for advanced disease. All of them were included in the final prediction model. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.838 (95 % CI: 0.807-0.868). The calibration plot and Hosmer‒Lemeshow test (P = 0.108) indicated favorable consistency between the predicted probabilities and actual probabilities of advanced disease. The Brier score was 0.108, indicating acceptable overall performance. The DCA curve presented a significant clinical net benefit. In the validation set, both the ROC curve and calibration plot exhibited an acceptable discrimination ability (AUC = 0.807 (95 % CI 0.702-0.913) and calibration (Hosmer Lemeshow P = 0.997), respectively.

Conclusions

The prediction model had good value for identifying advanced disease from well-differentiated colorectal NENs smaller than 2 cm.

Clinical outcomes after endoscopic resection and the risk of lymph node metastasis in rectal neuroendocrine tumors: a single-center retrospective study

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The incidence of rectal neuroendocrine tumors (R-NETs) has increased in recent years. However, the predictors of lymph node (LN) metastasis and clinical outcomes, particularly following endoscopic treatment, remain unclear. Our study aims to elucidate the potential risk factors for LN metastasis and the clinical outcomes of patients undergoing endoscopic resection in R-NETs.

METHODS

A total of 128 patients with R-NETs were retrospectively identified from a single center between June 2012 and December 2021. Risk factors for LN metastasis in R-NETs were analyzed using multivariate analysis. Additionally, the clinical outcomes of endoscopic resections in patients with R-NETs were assessed.

RESULTS

In our study, 128 patients with R-NETs were retrospectively analyzed. The risk factors for LN metastasis determined by multivariate analysis were tumor size and patient age at diagnosis. Among the 111 patients treated with endoscopic resection and with tumor margin records available, 92 underwent endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) and 19 underwent conventional endoscopic mucosal resection (EMR). There was no significant difference between the two groups regarding the positive rates of basal tumor margin and lateral tumor margin. Furthermore, 64 patients who underwent endoscopic resection for R-NETs were successfully followed up (range, 1.64-76.71 months), during which only one patient developed local recurrence.

CONCLUSION

Tumor size and age at diagnosis were predictors for LN metastasis of R-NETs. Both ESD and EMR are alternative techniques with a favorable prognosis for R-NETs, even in cases with positive resection margins. However, due to the relatively small number of patients undergoing EMR and missing data in follow-up protocols, definitive conclusions require further large-scale studies.

Different lymph node staging systems for predicting the prognosis of colorectal neuroendocrine neoplasms

BACKGROUND

Colorectal neuroendocrine neoplasms (NENs) are a rare malignancy that primarily arises from the diffuse distribution of neuroendocrine cells in the colon and rectum. Previous studies have pointed out that the status of lymph node may be used to predict the prognosis.

AIM

To investigate the predictive values of lymph node ratio (LNR), positive lymph node (PLN), and log odds of PLNs (LODDS) staging systems on the prognosis of colorectal NENs treated surgically, and compare their predictive values.

METHODS

This cohort study included 895 patients with colorectal NENs treated surgically from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. The endpoint was mortality of patients with colorectal NENs treated surgically. X-tile software was utilized to identify most suitable thresholds for categorizing the LNR, PLN, and LODDS. Participants were selected in a random manner to form training and testing sets. The prognosis of surgically treating colorectal NENs was examined using multivariate cox analysis to assess the associations of LNR, PLN, and LODDS with the prognosis of colorectal NENs. C-index was used for assessing the predictive effectiveness. We conducted a subgroup analysis to explore the different lymph node staging systems' predictive values.

RESULTS

After adjusting all confounding factors, PLN, LNR and LODDS staging systems were linked with mortality in patients with colorectal NENs treated surgically (P < 0.05). We found that LODDS staging had a higher prognostic value for patients with colorectal NENs treated surgically than PLN and LNR staging systems. Similar results were obtained in the different G staging subgroup analyses. Furthermore, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values for LODDS staging system remained consistently higher than those of PLN or LNR, even at the 1-, 2-, 3-, 4-, 5- and 6-year follow-up periods.

CONCLUSION

LNR, PLN, and LODDS were found to significantly predict the prognosis of patients with colorectal NENs treated surgically.

Development of a scoring function for comparing simulated and experimental tumor spheroids

Progress continues in the field of cancer biology, yet much remains to be unveiled regarding the mechanisms of cancer invasion. In particular, complex biophysical mechanisms enable a tumor to remodel the surrounding extracellular matrix (ECM), allowing cells to invade alone or collectively. Tumor spheroids cultured in collagen represent a simplified, reproducible 3D model system, which is sufficiently complex to recapitulate the evolving organization of cells and interaction with the ECM that occur during invasion. Recent experimental approaches enable high resolution imaging and quantification of the internal structure of invading tumor spheroids. Concurrently, computational modeling enables simulations of complex multicellular aggregates based on first principles. The comparison between real and simulated spheroids represents a way to fully exploit both data sources, but remains a challenge. We hypothesize that comparing any two spheroids requires first the extraction of basic features from the raw data, and second the definition of key metrics to match such features. Here, we present a novel method to compare spatial features of spheroids in 3D. To do so, we define and extract features from spheroid point cloud data, which we simulated using Cells in Silico (CiS), a high-performance framework for large-scale tissue modeling previously developed by us. We then define metrics to compare features between individual spheroids, and combine all metrics into an overall deviation score. Finally, we use our features to compare experimental data on invading spheroids in increasing collagen densities. We propose that our approach represents the basis for defining improved metrics to compare large 3D data sets. Moving forward, this approach will enable the detailed analysis of spheroids of any origin, one application of which is informing in silico spheroids based on their in vitro counterparts. This will enable both basic and applied researchers to close the loop between modeling and experiments in cancer research.

Epidemiological trends and novel prognostic evaluation approaches of patients with stage II-IV colorectal neuroendocrine neoplasms: A population-based study with external validation

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to clarify the incidence trend of all-stage colorectal neuroendocrine neoplasms (CRNENs), overall survival (OS), and disease-specific survival (DSS) of patients with stage II-IV CRNENs, and to establish relevant nomograms for risk stratification.

METHODS

Among all patients diagnosed with CRNENs in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 1975 to 2019, temporal trends in incidence were assessed. Clinical data of 668 patients with stage II-IV CRNENs from 2010 to 2016 were extracted for survival analysis. Patients were randomly divided into a training cohort and a validation cohort at a ratio of 7:3. Univariate and multivariate cox regression analyses were utilized to identify independent prognostic factors affecting OS outcomes. Competing risk analysis was applied to investigate risk factors related to the DSS of CRNENs. Two nomograms specifically for OS and DSS were developed for patients with stage II-IV CRNENs, their prognostic capabilities were evaluated using calibration curves, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, the time-dependent area under the curve (AUC), and decision-curve analysis (DCA). Our hospital's independent cohort of 62 patients with CRNENs was used as the external validation cohort.

RESULTS

In the period of 1975-2019, the incidence of CRNENs increased steadily with an annual percentage change (APC) of 4.50 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.90-5.11, P < 0.05). In total, 668 patients with stage II-IV CRNENs were included in the survival analysis from 2010 and 2016. Independent adverse prognostic factors for both OS and DSS of CRNENs prior treatment included grade III/IV (HR for OS: 4.66, 95%CI: 2.92-7.42; HR for DSS: 4.79, 95%CI: 4.27-5.31), higher TNM stage ([stage III vs stage II] HR for OS: 2.22, 95%CI: 1.25-3.94; HR for DSS: 2.69, 95%CI: 1.96-3.42. [stage IV vs stage II] HR for OS: 3.99, 95%CI: 2.03-7.83; HR for DSS: 4.96, 95%CI: 4.14-5.78), liver metastasis (HR for OS: 1.61, 95%CI: 1.03-2.51; HR for DSS: 1.86, 95%CI: 1.39-2.32), and brain metastasis (HR for OS: 4.57, 95%CI: 1.66-12.58; HR for DSS: 5.01, 95%CI: 4.15-5.87). Advanced age was also identified as a risk factor for OS (HR: 2.03, 95%CI: 1.5-2.76) but not DSS. In terms of treatment, surgery can significantly prolong OS (HR: 0.62, 95%CI: 0.44-0.86) and DSS (HR: 0.67, 95%CI: 0.29-1.05), but chemotherapy and radiation failed to show significance. The respective nomograms for OS and DSS for stage II-IV CRNENs demonstrated high accuracy and robust prediction value in predicting 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year OS and DSS outcomes in training, internal validation, and external validation cohorts. Besides, two online tools regarding OS and DSS prediction were established, facilitating nomogram score calculation, risk group determination, as well as survival prediction for each individual patient.

CONCLUSION

Over the past 40 years, the incidence of CRNENs presented increased steadily, along with improved survival outcomes. Grade III-IV, higher TNM stage, liver metastasis, brain metastasis, and without receiving surgery were found to be associated with worse OS and DSS. Advanced age was a risk factor for OS but not DSS. Nomograms for patients with stage II-IV stage CRNENs are capable of predicting the 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS and DSS rates with high accuracy, and realize risk stratification.