Biodiversity patterns of epipelagic copepods in the South Pacific Ocean: Strengths and limitations of current data bases

Basin-scale patterns of biodiversity for zooplankton in the ocean may provide valuable insights for understanding the impact of climate change and global warming on the marine ecosystem. However, studies on this topic remain scarce or unavailable in vast regions of the world ocean, particularly in large regions where the amount and quality of available data are limited. In this study, we used a 27-year (1993-2019) database on species occurrence of planktonic copepods in the South Pacific, along with associated oceanographic variables, to examine their spatial patterns of biodiversity in the upper 200 m of the ocean. The aim of this study was to identify ecological regions and the environmental predictors explaining such patterns. It was found that hot and cold spots of diversity, and distinctive species assemblages were linked to major ocean currents and large regions over the basin, with increasing species richness over the subtropical areas on the East and West sides of the South Pacific. While applying the spatial models, we showed that the best environmental predictors for diversity and species composition were temperature, salinity, chlorophyll-a concentration, oxygen concentration, and the residual autocorrelation. Nonetheless, the observed spatial patterns and derived environmental effects were found to be strongly influenced by sampling coverage over space and time, revealing a highly under-sampled basin. Our findings provide an assessment of copepods diversity patterns and their potential drivers for the South Pacific Ocean, but they also stress the need for strengthening the data bases of planktonic organisms, as they can act as suitable indicators of ecosystem response to climate change at basin scale.

Modeling present and future distribution of plankton populations in a coastal upwelling zone: the copepod Calanus chilensis as a study case

Predicting species distribution in the ocean has become a crucial task to assess marine ecosystem responses to ongoing climate change. In the Humboldt Current System (HCS), the endemic copepod Calanus chilensis is one of the key species bioindicator of productivity and water masses. Here we modeled the geographic distribution of Calanus chilensis for two bathymetric ranges, 0-200 and 200-400 m. For the 0-200 m layer, we used the Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) method, whereas, for the 200-400 m layer, we used the Ensembles of Small Models (ESMs) method and then projected the models into two future scenarios to assess changes in geographic distribution patterns. The models were evaluated using the multi-metric approach. We identified that chlorophyll-a (0.34), Mixed Layer Depth (0.302) and salinity (0.36) explained the distribution of C. chilensis. The geographic prediction of the BART model revealed a continuous distribution from Ecuador to the southernmost area of South America for the 0-200 m depth range, whereas the ESM model indicated a discontinuous distribution with greater suitability for the coast of Chile for the 200-400 m depth range. A reduction of the distribution range of C. chilensis is projected in the future. Our study suggests that the distribution of C. chilensis is conditioned by productivity and mesoscale processes, with both processes closely related to upwelling intensity. These models serve as a tool for proposing indicators of changes in the ocean. We further propose that the species C. chilensis is a high productivity and low salinity indicator at the HCS. We recommend further examining multiple spatial and temporal scales for stronger inference.