Variability in thermal tolerance of clutches from different mothers indicates adaptation potential to climate warming in sea turtles

The current climate warming is a challenge to biodiversity that could surpass the adaptation capacity of some species. Hence, understanding the means by which populations undergo an increase in their thermal tolerance is critical to assess how they could adapt to climate warming. Specifically, sea turtle populations could respond to increasing temperatures by (1) colonizing new nesting areas, (2) nesting during cooler times of the year, and/or (3) by increasing their thermal tolerance. Differences in thermal tolerance of clutches laid by different females would indicate that populations have the potential to adapt by natural selection. Here, we used exhaustive information on nest temperatures and hatching success of leatherback turtle (Dermochelys coriacea) clutches over 14 years to assess the occurrence of individual variability in thermal tolerance among females. We found an effect of temperature, year, and the interaction between female identity and nest temperature on hatching success, indicating that clutches laid by different females exhibited different levels of vulnerability to high temperatures. If thermal tolerance is a heritable trait, individuals with higher thermal tolerances could have greater chances of passing their genes to following generations, increasing their frequency in the population. However, the high rate of failure of clutches at temperatures above 32°C suggests that leatherback turtles are already experiencing extreme heat stress. A proper understanding of mechanisms of adaptation in populations to counteract changes in climate could greatly contribute to future conservation of endangered populations in a rapidly changing world.

Adaptation of sea turtles to climate warming: Will phenological responses be sufficient to counteract changes in reproductive output?

Sea turtles are vulnerable to climate change since their reproductive output is influenced by incubating temperatures, with warmer temperatures causing lower hatching success and increased feminization of embryos. Their ability to cope with projected increases in ambient temperatures will depend on their capacity to adapt to shifts in climatic regimes. Here, we assessed the extent to which phenological shifts could mitigate impacts from increases in ambient temperatures (from 1.5 to 3°C in air temperatures and from 1.4 to 2.3°C in sea surface temperatures by 2100 at our sites) on four species of sea turtles, under a "middle of the road" scenario (SSP2-4.5). Sand temperatures at sea turtle nesting sites are projected to increase from 0.58 to 4.17°C by 2100 and expected shifts in nesting of 26-43 days earlier will not be sufficient to maintain current incubation temperatures at 7 (29%) of our sites, hatching success rates at 10 (42%) of our sites, with current trends in hatchling sex ratio being able to be maintained at half of the sites. We also calculated the phenological shifts that would be required (both backward for an earlier shift in nesting and forward for a later shift) to keep up with present-day incubation temperatures, hatching success rates, and sex ratios. The required shifts backward in nesting for incubation temperatures ranged from -20 to -191 days, whereas the required shifts forward ranged from +54 to +180 days. However, for half of the sites, no matter the shift the median incubation temperature will always be warmer than the 75th percentile of current ranges. Given that phenological shifts will not be able to ameliorate predicted changes in temperature, hatching success and sex ratio at most sites, turtles may need to use other adaptive responses and/or there is the need to enhance sea turtle resilience to climate warming.

Short-term resilience to climate-induced temperature increases for equatorial sea turtle populations

Projection models are being increasingly used to manage threatened taxa by estimating their responses to climate change. Sea turtles are particularly susceptible to climate change as they have temperature-dependent sex determination and increased sand temperatures on nesting beaches could result in the 'feminisation' of hatchling sex ratios for some populations. This study modelled likely long-term trends in sand temperatures and hatchling sex ratios at an equatorial nesting site for endangered green turtles (Chelonia mydas) and critically endangered hawksbill turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata). A total of 1078 days of sand temperature data were collected from 28 logger deployments at nest depth between 2018 and 2022 in Papua New Guinea (PNG). Long-term trends in sand temperature were generated from a model using air temperature as an environmental proxy. The influence of rainfall and seasonal variation on sand temperature was also investigated. Between 1960 and 2019, we estimated that sand temperature increased by ~0.6°C and the average hatchling sex ratio was relatively balanced (46.2% female, SD = 10.7). No trends were observed in historical rainfall anomalies and projections indicated no further changes to rainfall until 2100. Therefore, the sex ratio models were unlikely to be influenced by changing rainfall patterns. A relatively balanced sex ratio such as this is starkly different to the extremely female-skewed hatchling sex ratio (>99% female) reported for another Coral Sea nesting site, Raine Island (~850 km West). This PNG nesting site is likely rare in the global context, as it is less threatened by climate-induced feminisation. Although there is no current need for 'cooling' interventions, the mean projected sex ratios for 2020-2100 were estimated 76%-87% female, so future interventions may be required to increase male production. Our use of long-term sand temperature and rainfall trends has advanced our understanding of climate change impacts on sea turtles.

Negative Effects on Neurogenesis, Ovariogenesis, and Fitness in Sea Turtle Hatchlings Associated to ex situ Incubation Management

Sea turtle egg relocation and hatchery incubation (hereafter termed ex situ incubation) is an effective strategy to protect clutches when in situ egg incubation is not viable. Nevertheless, it negatively affects the ontogenesis of male gonads and brain areas homologous to the mammalian hippocampus, as well as body size and fitness. Thus, it is imperative to analyze the effects of ex situ incubation on other developmental aspects and extend these observations to females. This work evaluated the effect of ex situ management on neurogenesis (cell proliferation in the dorsal and medial ventricular zones, neuronal integration in the dorsomedial and medial cortices), ovary cell proliferation, body size (mass and length) and self-righting ability. Additionally, this study examined if the incubation microenvironment is different between in situ and ex situ nests and whether it could contribute to explain the biological traits. An analysis of principal components showed differences in biological variables of hatchlings between in situ and ex situ clutches, driven by contrasting temperatures and silt composition. Each biological variable was also analyzed with linear mixed models using in situ vs. ex situ clutches, abiotic variables and their interaction. Turtles from ex situ clutches showed: (1) fewer proliferating cells in the dorsal and medial ventricular zones; (2) less mature neurons in the dorsomedial and medial cortices; (3) ovaries with a lesser number of proliferating cells; (4) lower body mass and length at emergence; and (5) slower self-righting time. Together, the results suggest that ex situ incubation in hatcheries is related to a slowing down of neurogenesis, ovariogenesis, body size and self-righting ability in hatchlings. Future studies should evaluate the effect of ex situ incubation on cognitive and reproductive performance to understand the long-term consequences of altered organogenesis. These studies should also disentangle the differential contribution of egg movement, reburial, nesting environment and parental origin to development. This information would likely result in better conservation strategies for sea turtles.

Metabolic Rates and Thermal Thresholds of Embryonic Flatback Turtles (Natator depressus) from the North West Shelf of Australia

AbstractNest microclimates influence embryonic development and survival in many lineages, including reptiles with temperature-dependent sex determination. These microclimates are dependent on physical drivers and biological processes, such as embryonic metabolism, that generate heat. The flatback turtle (Natator depressus) has among the largest hatchlings of the seven extant sea turtle species, making it an excellent candidate for quantifying the contribution of embryonic metabolism to the nest microclimate. Consequently, we measured embryonic metabolic rates, development rates, and the relationship between temperature and sex determination for a N. depressus population nesting at Cemetery Beach in Western Australia, a mainland beach characterized by high sand temperatures. Total oxygen consumed at 29.5°C during an average 52-d incubation period was 2,622 mL, total carbon dioxide produced was 1,886 mL, and estimated embryonic heat production reached 38 mW at 90% of development. Adjustment of metabolic rates to 32°C and 34°C increased peak heat production by 18% and 27%, respectively. The pivotal temperature (T_PIV) producing an equal sex ratio was 30.3°C, mixed sexes were produced between 29.3°C and 31.2°C, and only females were produced above 31.2°C. The T_PIV was similar (within 0.2°C) to that of an island rookery within the same genetic stock (North West Shelf), but the peak development rate (2.5% d^-1) was estimated to be achieved at a temperature ~2.5°C higher (34.7°C) than the island rookery. Our results add to a growing consensus that thermal thresholds vary among sea turtle populations, even within the same genetic stock. Furthermore, we show that metabolic heat will have an appreciable impact on the nest microclimate, which has implications for embryonic survival and fitness under a future climate with warmer sand temperatures.

Impact of marine heatwaves for sea turtle nest temperatures

There are major concerns about the ecological impact of extreme weather events. In the oceans, marine heatwaves (MHWs) are an increasing threat causing, for example, recent devastation to coral reefs around the world. We show that these impacts extend to adjacent terrestrial systems and could negatively affect the breeding of endangered species. We demonstrate that during an MHW that resulted in major coral bleaching and mortality in a large, remote marine protected area, anomalously warm temperatures also occurred on sea turtle nesting beaches. Granger causality testing showed that variations in sea surface temperature strongly influenced sand temperatures on beaches. We estimate that the warm conditions on both coral reefs and sandy beaches during the MHW were unprecedented in the last 70 years. Model predictions suggest that the most extreme female-biased hatchling sex ratio and the lowest hatchling survival in nests in the last 70 years both occurred during the heatwave. Our work shows that predicted increases in the frequency and intensity of MHWs will likely have growing impacts on sea turtle nesting beaches as well as other terrestrial coastal environments.

Climate change and marine turtles: recent advances and future directions

Climate change is a threat to marine turtles that is expected to affect all of their life stages. To guide future research, we conducted a review of the most recent literature on this topic, highlighting knowledge gains and research gaps since a similar previous review in 2009. Most research has been focussed on the terrestrial life history phase, where expected impacts will range from habitat loss and decreased reproductive success to feminization of populations, but changes in reproductive periodicity, shifts in latitudinal ranges, and changes in foraging success are all expected in the marine life history phase. Models have been proposed to improve estimates of primary sex ratios, while technological advances promise a better understanding of how climate can influence different life stages and habitats. We suggest a number of research priorities for an improved understanding of how climate change may impact marine turtles, including: improved estimates of primary sex ratios, assessments of the implications of female-biased sex ratios and reduced male production, assessments of the variability in upper thermal limits of clutches, models of beach sediment movement under sea level rise, and assessments of impacts on foraging grounds. Lastly, we suggest that it is not yet possible to recommend manipulating aspects of turtle nesting ecology, as the evidence base with which to understand the results of such interventions is not robust enough, but that strategies for mitigation of stressors should be helpful, providing they consider the synergistic effects of climate change and other anthropogenic-induced threats to marine turtles, and focus on increasing resilience.