Estimating survival in continuous space from mark-dead-recovery data - Towards a continuous version of the multinomial dead recovery model

Understanding spatially varying survival is crucial for understanding the ecology and evolution of migratory animals, which may ultimately help to conserve such species. We develop an approach to estimate an annual survival probability function varying continuously in geographic space, if the recovery probability is constant over space. This estimate is based on a density function over continuous geographic space and the discrete age at death obtained from dead recovery data. From the same density function, we obtain an estimate for animal distribution in space corrected for survival, i.e., migratory connectivity. This is possible, when migratory connectivity can be separated from recovery probability. In this article, we present the method how spatially and continuously varying survival and the migratory connectivity corrected for survival can be obtained, if a constant recovery probability can be assumed reasonably. The model is a stepping stone in developing a model allowing for disentangling spatially heterogeneous survival and migratory connectivity corrected for survival from a spatially heterogeneous recovery probability. We implement the method using kernel density estimates in the R-package CONSURE. Any other density estimation technique can be used as an alternative. In a simulation study, the estimators are unbiased but show edge effects in survival and migratory connectivity. Applying the method to a real-world data set of European robins Erithacus rubecula results in biologically reasonable continuous heat-maps for survival and migratory connectivity.

Broad-scale climate variation drives the dynamics of animal populations: a global multi-taxa analysis

Climate is a major extrinsic factor affecting the population dynamics of many organisms. The Broad-Scale Climate Hypothesis (BSCH) was proposed by Elton to explain the large-scale synchronous population cycles of animals, but the extent of support and whether it differs among taxa and geographical regions is unclear. We reviewed publications examining the relationship between the population dynamics of multiple taxa worldwide and the two most commonly used broad-scale climate indices, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Our review and synthesis (based on 561 species from 221 papers) reveals that population changes of mammals, birds and insects are strongly affected by major oceanic shifts or irregular oceanic changes, particularly in ENSO- and NAO-influenced regions (Pacific and Atlantic, respectively), providing clear evidence supporting Elton's BSCH. Mammal and insect populations tended to increase during positive ENSO phases. Bird populations tended to increase in positive NAO phases. Some species showed dual associations with both positive and negative phases of the same climate index (ENSO or NAO). These findings indicate that some taxa or regions are more or less vulnerable to climate fluctuations and that some geographical areas show multiple weather effects related to ENSO or NAO phases. Beyond confirming that animal populations are influenced by broad-scale climate variation, we document extensive patterns of variation among taxa and observe that the direct biotic and abiotic mechanisms for these broad-scale climate factors affecting animal populations are very poorly understood. A practical implication of our research is that changes in ENSO or NAO can be used as early signals for pest management and wildlife conservation. We advocate integrative studies at both broad and local scales to unravel the omnipresent effects of climate on animal populations to help address the challenge of conserving biodiversity in this era of accelerated climate change.

Mitigating impacts of invasive alien predators on an endangered sea duck amidst high native predation pressure

Anthropogenically introduced invasive species represent a major threat to global biodiversity by causing population declines and extinctions of native species. The negative impacts of introduced predators are well documented, yet a fundamental knowledge gap exists regarding the efficiency of potential mitigation methods to restore the ecosystem. Other understudied aspects concern prey behavioural antipredator responses and the historical context of native predator-prey interactions, which may moderate invasion impacts on native prey. Invasion impacts of American mink (Neovison vison) and raccoon dog (Nyctereutes procyonoides) into the Baltic Sea archipelago are poorly understood, and the efficiency of removal efforts as a means to alleviate depredation pressure on native prey is debated. Here, we examine the effectiveness of invasive predator removal on ground-nesting female common eider (Somateria mollissima) mortality, breeding success and breeding propensity over a 9-year period, while controlling for predation risk imposed by the main native predator, the white-tailed eagle (Haliaeetus albicilla). Our results clearly show that intensified removal of American minks and raccoon dogs decreased the number of female eiders killed during nesting, while improving both nesting success and breeding propensity. Such obvious positive effects of invasive predator removal are particularly noteworthy against the backdrop of a soaring eagle population, indicating that the impacts of invasives may become accentuated when native predators differ taxonomically and by hunting mode. This study shows that invasive alien predator removal is an effective conservation measure clearly aiding native fauna even under severe native predation pressure. Such cost-effective conservation actions call for governmental deployment across large areas.