An investigation into the potential for upward range expansion in high-montane species on the roof of the world

Climate warming is occurring in high-mountain areas at a faster rate than the global average. To escape the increasing temperatures, alpine species may shift in distribution upwards, threatening cold-adapted nival plant specialists. However, little is known about the success of seedling emergence and establishment at high altitudes outside the current range, particularly in the highest mountain areas of the Himalayas. We selected four native alpine species occurring around 4000 m a.s.l. and sowed seeds at the natural growing site (GS), at a high elevation site (HS; 5000 m a.s.l.) and at high elevation with soil from the growing site (HS-S) in the Khumbu Valley, north-eastern Nepal. We monitored seedling emergence and establishment for two consecutive years. Seedling emergence and establishment varied between species. Emergence was similar between GS and HS and improved at HS-S. Establishment was low at high elevations with all but one species having high mortality after winter. Seedling emergence of low elevation plants is possible at high elevations in the Everest region, indicating species may be able to shift their distribution range upwards. However, successful establishment may be limited by the soil and high winter mortality at high elevations, although not in all species. Climate warming will potentially lead to upward migration of some Himalayan plant species, leading to altered community composition in high-mountain areas.

Recruitment Traits Could Influence Species' Geographical Range: A Case Study in the Genus Saxifraga L

The reasons why some species occur widespread, while related species have restricted geographical ranges have been attributed to habitat specialization or ecological niche breadth. For species in the genus Saxifraga, habitat specialization alone cannot explain the distributional differences observed. We hypothesize that recruitment traits (i.e., germination, emergence, and survival) may account for differences in geographical ranges and that early life stages correlate to survival. We studied recruitment responses in 13 widespread and 12 narrow-ranged Saxifraga species in the laboratory and common garden experiments using seeds collected from 79 populations in the European Alps. We found that in the laboratory cold temperature led to higher germination percentages compared with warm temperature for both distribution groups. This represents an exception to the general assumption that alpine species require warm cues for germination. In warm laboratory temperatures, widespread species germinated better than narrow-ranged species, indicating a greater tolerance of warm temperatures for the former. Subsequent to germination, recruitment traits between the two distribution groups were lower or null in the common garden, suggesting that the impact of recruitment on species' geographical ranges occurs at the earliest life stage. Mean time to emergence of narrow-ranged species showed lower variability than that of widespread species. Consistently, intraspecific variation of mean annual temperatures between seed collection sites was lower for narrow-ranged species, indicating a close relationship between home sites and emergence time. Emergence percentage was a strong predictor of survival only for widespread species, underlining that seed and seedling functional traits differ between distribution groups, which require further research. Our results support the view that early life stages are critical to population dynamics and thus can influence species' geographical ranges. The wider responses to climatic conditions in widespread species may have facilitated their spread across the Alps. Our results also suggest that all Saxifraga species face a considerable threat from climate warming due to their overall cold-adapted recruitment niche.