Modeling forest landscape futures: Full scale simulation of realistic socioeconomic scenarios in Estonia

For political and administrative governance of land-use decisions, high-resolution and reliable spatial models are required over large areas and for various time horizons. We present a process-centered simulation model 'NextStand' (a forest landscape model, FLM) and its R-script, which predicts regional forest characteristics at a forest stand resolution. The model uses whole area stand data and is optimized for realistic iterative timber harvesting decisions, based on stand compositions (developing over time) and locations. We used the model for simulating spatial predictions of the Estonian forests in North Europe (2.3 Mha, about 2 M stands); the decisions were parameterized by land ownership, protection regimes, and rules of clear-cut harvesting. We illustrate the model application as a potential broad-scale Decision Support Tool by predicting how the forest age composition, placement of clear-cut areas, and connectivity of old stands will develop until the year 2050 under future scenarios. The country-scale outputs had a generally low within-scenario variance, which enabled to estimate some main land-use effects and uncertainties at small computing efforts. In forestry terms, we show that a continuation of recent intensive forest management trends will produce a decline of the national timber supplies in Estonia, which greatly varies among ownership types. In a conservation perspective, the current level of 13% forest area strictly protected can maintain an overall area of old forests by 2050, but their isolation is a problem for biodiversity conservation. The behavior of low-intensity forest management units (owners) and strict governance of clear-cut harvesting rules emerged as key questions for regional forest sustainability. Our study confirms that high-resolution modeling of future spatial composition of forest land is feasible when one can (i) delineate predictable spatial units of transformation (including management) and (ii) capture their variability of temporal change with simple ecological and socioeconomic (including human decision-making) variables.

The Database of European Forest Insect and Disease Disturbances: DEFID2

Insect and disease outbreaks in forests are biotic disturbances that can profoundly alter ecosystem dynamics. In many parts of the world, these disturbance regimes are intensifying as the climate changes and shifts the distribution of species and biomes. As a result, key forest ecosystem services, such as carbon sequestration, regulation of water flows, wood production, protection of soils, and the conservation of biodiversity, could be increasingly compromised. Despite the relevance of these detrimental effects, there are currently no spatially detailed databases that record insect and disease disturbances on forests at the pan-European scale. Here, we present the new Database of European Forest Insect and Disease Disturbances (DEFID2). It comprises over 650,000 harmonized georeferenced records, mapped as polygons or points, of insects and disease disturbances that occurred between 1963 and 2021 in European forests. The records currently span eight different countries and were acquired through diverse methods (e.g., ground surveys, remote sensing techniques). The records in DEFID2 are described by a set of qualitative attributes, including severity and patterns of damage symptoms, agents, host tree species, climate-driven trigger factors, silvicultural practices, and eventual sanitary interventions. They are further complemented with a satellite-based quantitative characterization of the affected forest areas based on Landsat Normalized Burn Ratio time series, and damage metrics derived from them using the LandTrendr spectral-temporal segmentation algorithm (including onset, duration, magnitude, and rate of the disturbance), and possible interactions with windthrow and wildfire events. The DEFID2 database is a novel resource for many large-scale applications dealing with biotic disturbances. It offers a unique contribution to design networks of experiments, improve our understanding of ecological processes underlying biotic forest disturbances, monitor their dynamics, and enhance their representation in land-climate models. Further data sharing is encouraged to extend and improve the DEFID2 database continuously. The database is freely available at https://jeodpp.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ftp/jrc-opendata/FOREST/DISTURBANCES/DEFID2/.

Effects of drought, disturbance, and biotic neighborhood on experimental tree seedling performance

Forest biodiversity is likely maintained by a complex suite of interacting drivers that vary in importance across both space and time. Contributing factors include disturbance, interannual variation in abiotic variables, and biotic neighborhood effects. To probe ongoing uncertainties and potential interactions, we investigated tree seedling performance in a temperate mid-Atlantic forest ecosystem. We planted seedlings of five native tree species in mapped study plots, half of which were subjected to disturbance, and then monitored seedling survival, height growth, and foliar condition. The final year of data collection encompassed a drought, enabling comparison between intervals varying in water availability. Seedling performance was analyzed as a function of canopy cover and biotic neighborhood (conspecific and heterospecific abundance), including interactions, with separate generalized linear mixed models fit for each interval. All species exhibited: (a) pronounced declines in height growth during the drought year, (b) detrimental effects of adult conspecifics, and (c) beneficial effects of canopy openness. However, despite these consistencies, there was considerable variation across species in terms of the relevant predictors for each response variable in each interval. Our results suggest that drought may strengthen or reveal conspecific inhibition in some instances while weakening it or obscuring it in others, and that some forms of conspecific inhibition may manifest only under particular canopy conditions (although given the inconsistency of our findings, we are not convinced that conspecific inhibition is critical for diversity maintenance in our study system). Overall, our work reveals a complex forest ecosystem that appears simultaneously and interactively governed by biotic neighborhood structure (e.g., conspecific and/or heterospecific abundance), local habitat conditions (e.g., canopy cover), and interannual variability (e.g., drought).

Revegetation through seeding or planting: A worldwide systematic map

Roughly 2 billion ha of land are degraded and in need of ecological restoration worldwide. Active restoration frequently involves revegetation, which leads to the dilemma of whether to conduct direct seeding or to plant nursery-grown seedlings. The choice of revegetation method can regulate plant survival and performance, with economic implications that ultimately feed back to our capacity to conduct restoration. We followed a peer-reviewed protocol to develop a systematic map that collates, describes and catalogues the available studies on how seeding compares to planting in achieving restoration targets. We compiled a database with the characteristics of all retrieved studies, which can be searched to identify studies of particular locations and habitats, objectives of restoration, plant material, technical aspects, and outcomes measured. The search was made in eight languages and retrieved 3355 publications, of which 178 were retained. The systematic map identifies research gaps, such as a lack of studies in the global South, in tropical rainforests, and covering a long time period, which represent opportunities to expand field-based research. Additionally, many studies overlooked reporting on important technical aspects such as seed provenance and nursery cultivation methods, and others such as watering or seedling protection were more frequently applied for planting than for seeding, which limits our capacity to learn from past research. Most studies measured outcomes related to the target plants but avoided measuring general restoration outcomes or economic aspects. This represents a relevant gap in research, as the choice of revegetation method is greatly based on economic aspects and the achievement of restoration goals goes beyond the establishment of plants. Finally, we identified a substantial volume of studies conducted in temperate regions and over short periods (0-5 y). This research cluster calls for a future in-depth synthesis, potentially through meta-analysis, to reveal the overall balance between seeding and planting and assess whether the response to this question is mediated by species traits, environmental characteristics, or technical aspects. Besides identifying research clusters and gaps, the systematic map database allows managers to find the most relevant scientific literature on the appropriateness of seeding vs. planting for particular conditions, such as certain species or habitats.

Integrating plant physiology into simulation of fire behavior and effects

Wildfires are a global crisis, but current fire models fail to capture vegetation response to changing climate. With drought and elevated temperature increasing the importance of vegetation dynamics to fire behavior, and the advent of next generation models capable of capturing increasingly complex physical processes, we provide a renewed focus on representation of woody vegetation in fire models. Currently, the most advanced representations of fire behavior and biophysical fire effects are found in distinct classes of fine-scale models and do not capture variation in live fuel (i.e. living plant) properties. We demonstrate that plant water and carbon dynamics, which influence combustion and heat transfer into the plant and often dictate plant survival, provide the mechanistic linkage between fire behavior and effects. Our conceptual framework linking remotely sensed estimates of plant water and carbon to fine-scale models of fire behavior and effects could be a critical first step toward improving the fidelity of the coarse scale models that are now relied upon for global fire forecasting. This process-based approach will be essential to capturing the influence of physiological responses to drought and warming on live fuel conditions, strengthening the science needed to guide fire managers in an uncertain future.

Distinguishing Abrupt and Gradual Forest Disturbances With MODIS-Based Phenological Anomaly Series

Capturing forest disturbances over time is increasingly important to determine the ecosystem's capacity to recover as well as aiding a timely response of foresters. With changes due to climate change increasing the frequencies, a better understanding of forest disturbances and their role in historical development is needed to, on the one hand, develop forest management approaches promoting ecosystem resilience and, on the other hand, provide quick and spatially explicit information to foresters. A large, publicly available satellite imagery spanning more than two decades for large areas of the Earth's surface at varying spatial and temporal resolutions represents a vast, free data source for this. The challenge is 2-fold: (1) obtaining reliable information on forest condition and development from satellite data requires not only quantification of forest loss but rather a differentiated assessment of the extent and severity of forest degradation; (2) standardized and efficient processing routines both are needed to bridge the gap between remote-sensing signals and conventional forest condition parameters to enable forest managers for the operational use of the data. Here, we investigated abiotic and biotic disturbances based on a set of ground validated occurrences in various forest areas across Germany to build disturbance response chronologies and examine event-specific patterns. The proposed workflow is based on the R-package "npphen" for non-parametric vegetation phenology reconstruction and anomaly detection using MODIS EVI time series data. Results show the potential to detect distinct disturbance responses in forest ecosystems and reveal event-specific characteristics. Difficulties still exist for the determination of, e.g., scattered wind throw, due to its subpixel resolution, especially in highly fragmented landscapes and small forest patches. However, the demonstrated method shows potential for operational use as a semi-automatic system to augment terrestrial monitoring in the forestry sector. Combining the more robust EVI and the assessment of the phenological series at a pixel-by-pixel level allows for a changing species cover without false classification as forest loss.

Comparing methods that quantify forest disturbances in the United States' national forest inventory

Forest disturbances play a critical role in ecosystem dynamics. However, the methods for quantifying these disturbances at broad scales may underestimate disturbances that affect individual trees. Utilizing individual tree variables may provide early disturbance detection that directly affects tree demographics and forest dynamics. The goals of this study were to (1) describe different methods for quantifying disturbances at individual tree and condition-level scales, (2) compare the differences between disturbance variables, and (3) provide a methodology for selecting an appropriate disturbance variable from national forest inventories for diverse applications depending on user needs. To achieve these goals, we used all the remeasurements available from the USDA Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) database since the start of the annual inventory for the lower 48 US states. Variables used included disturbance code, treatment code, agent of mortality, and damage code. Chi-square tests of independence were used to verify how the choice of the variable that represents disturbance affects its magnitude. Disturbed plots, as classified by each disturbance variable, were mapped to observe their spatial distribution. We found that the Chi-square tests were significant when using all the states and comparing each state individually, indicating that different results exist depending on which variable is used to represent disturbance. Our results will be a useful tool to help researchers measure the magnitude and scale of disturbance since the manner in which disturbances are categorized will impact forest management plans, national and international reports of forest carbon stocks, and sequestration potential under future global change scenarios.