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Stewart FEC, Micheletti T, Cumming SG, Barros C, Chubaty AM, Dookie AL, Duclos I, Eddy I, Haché S, Hodson J, Hughes J, Johnson CA, Leblond M, Schmiegelow FKA, Tremblay JA, McIntire EJB. Climate-informed forecasts reveal dramatic local habitat shifts and population uncertainty for northern boreal caribou. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2023; 33:e2816. [PMID: 36752658 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2816] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/14/2022] [Revised: 12/02/2022] [Accepted: 12/14/2022] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Most research on boreal populations of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) has been conducted in areas of high anthropogenic disturbance. However, a large portion of the species' range overlaps relatively pristine areas primarily affected by natural disturbances, such as wildfire. Climate-driven habitat change is a key concern for the conservation of boreal-dependent species, where management decisions have yet to consider knowledge from multiple ecological domains integrated into a cohesive and spatially explicit forecast of species-specific habitat and demography. We used a novel ecological forecasting framework to provide climate-sensitive projections of habitat and demography for five boreal caribou monitoring areas within the Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada, over 90 years. Importantly, we quantify uncertainty around forecasted mean values. Our results suggest habitat suitability may increase in central and southwest regions of the NWT's Taiga Plains ecozone but decrease in southern and northwestern regions driven by conversion of coniferous to deciduous forests. We do not project that boreal caribou population growth rates will change despite forecasted changes to habitat suitability. Our results emphasize the importance of efforts to protect and restore northern boreal caribou habitat despite climate uncertainty while highlighting expected spatial variations that are important considerations for local people who rely on them. An ability to reproduce previous work, and critical thought when incorporating sources of uncertainty, will be important to refine forecasts, derive management decisions, and improve conservation efficacy for northern species at risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Frances E C Stewart
- Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, ON, Canada
- Pacific Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
| | - Tatiane Micheletti
- Department of Forest Resources Management, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Steven G Cumming
- Department of Wood and Forest Science, Laval University, Québec, QC, Canada
| | - Ceres Barros
- Department of Forest Resources Management, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | | | | | - Isabelle Duclos
- Environment and Climate Change Canada, Yellowknife, NT, Canada
| | - Ian Eddy
- Pacific Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
| | - Samuel Haché
- Canadian Wildlife Service, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Yellowknife, NT, Canada
| | - James Hodson
- Department of Environment and Natural Resources, Government of the Northwest Territories, Yellowknife, NT, Canada
| | - Josie Hughes
- Landscape Science and Technology Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | - Cheryl A Johnson
- Landscape Science and Technology Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | - Mathieu Leblond
- Landscape Science and Technology Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | - Fiona K A Schmiegelow
- Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada
- Yukon University, Yukon Research Centre, Whitehorse, YT, Canada
| | - Junior A Tremblay
- Department of Wood and Forest Science, Laval University, Québec, QC, Canada
- Wildlife Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Québec, QC, Canada
| | - Eliot J B McIntire
- Pacific Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
- Department of Forest Resources Management, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
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Micheletti T, Haché S, Stralberg D, Stewart FEC, Chubaty AM, Barros C, Bayne EM, Cumming SG, Docherty TDS, Dookie A, Duclos I, Eddy IMS, Gadallah Z, Haas CA, Hodson J, Leblond M, Mahon CL, Schmiegelow F, Tremblay JA, Van Wilgenburg SL, Westwood AR, McIntire EJB. Will this umbrella leak? A caribou umbrella index for boreal landbird conservation. CONSERVATION SCIENCE AND PRACTICE 2023. [DOI: 10.1111/csp2.12908] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/12/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Tatiane Micheletti
- Faculty of Forestry University of British Columbia Vancouver British Columbia Canada
| | - Samuel Haché
- Canadian Wildlife Service Environment and Climate Change Canada Yellowknife Northwest Territories Canada
| | - Diana Stralberg
- Northern Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service Natural Resources Canada Edmonton Alberta Canada
- Department of Renewable Resources University of Alberta Edmonton Alberta Canada
| | - Frances E. C. Stewart
- Biology Department Wilfrid Laurier University Canada
- Pacific Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service Natural Resources Canada Victoria British Columbia Canada
| | | | - Ceres Barros
- Faculty of Forestry University of British Columbia Vancouver British Columbia Canada
| | - Erin M. Bayne
- Department of Biological Sciences University of Alberta Edmonton Alberta Canada
| | - Steven G. Cumming
- Department of Wood and Forest Sciences Laval University Quebec City Quebec Canada
| | | | - Amanda Dookie
- Canadian Wildlife Service Environment and Climate Change Canada Gatineau Quebec Canada
| | - Isabelle Duclos
- Canadian Wildlife Service Environment and Climate Change Canada Yellowknife Northwest Territories Canada
| | - Ian M. S. Eddy
- Pacific Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service Natural Resources Canada Victoria British Columbia Canada
| | - Zuzu Gadallah
- Canadian Wildlife Service Environment and Climate Change Canada Gatineau Quebec Canada
| | - Claudia A. Haas
- Department of Environment and Natural Resources Government of the Northwest Territories Yellowknife Northwest Territories Canada
| | - James Hodson
- Department of Environment and Natural Resources Government of the Northwest Territories Yellowknife Northwest Territories Canada
| | - Mathieu Leblond
- Landscape Science and Technology Division Environment and Climate Change Canada Ottawa Ontario Canada
| | - C. Lisa Mahon
- Department of Biological Sciences University of Alberta Edmonton Alberta Canada
- Canadian Wildlife Service Environment and Climate Change Canada Whitehorse Yukon Territories Canada
| | - Fiona Schmiegelow
- Department of Renewable Resources University of Alberta Edmonton Alberta Canada
- Yukon Research Centre Yukon University Whitehorse Yukon Territories Canada
| | - Junior A. Tremblay
- Department of Wood and Forest Sciences Laval University Quebec City Quebec Canada
- Wildlife Research Division Environment and Climate Change Canada Quebec City Quebec Canada
| | | | - Alana R. Westwood
- School for Resource and Environmental Studies Dalhousie University K'jipuktuk (Halifax) Nova Scotia Canada
| | - Eliot J. B. McIntire
- Faculty of Forestry University of British Columbia Vancouver British Columbia Canada
- Pacific Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service Natural Resources Canada Victoria British Columbia Canada
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Barros C, Luo Y, Chubaty AM, Eddy IMS, Micheletti T, Boisvenue C, Andison DW, Cumming SG, McIntire EJB. Empowering ecological modellers with a
PERFICT
workflow: Seamlessly linking data, parameterisation, prediction, validation and visualisation. Methods Ecol Evol 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.14034] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/26/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Ceres Barros
- Faculty of Forestry University of British Columbia Vancouver British Columbia Canada
| | - Yong Luo
- Faculty of Forestry University of British Columbia Vancouver British Columbia Canada
- Canadian Forest Service (Pacific Forestry Centre) Natural Resources Canada Victoria British Columbia Canada
- Forest Analysis and Inventory Branch, BC Ministry of Forests, Lands Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development Victoria British Columbia Canada
| | | | - Ian M. S. Eddy
- Canadian Forest Service (Pacific Forestry Centre) Natural Resources Canada Victoria British Columbia Canada
| | - Tatiane Micheletti
- Faculty of Forestry University of British Columbia Vancouver British Columbia Canada
| | - Céline Boisvenue
- Faculty of Forestry University of British Columbia Vancouver British Columbia Canada
- Canadian Forest Service (Pacific Forestry Centre) Natural Resources Canada Victoria British Columbia Canada
| | - David W. Andison
- Bandaloop Landscape‐Ecosystem Services Ltd. Nelson British Columbia Canada
| | - Steven G. Cumming
- Faculté de Foresterie, de Géographie et de Géomatique, Département des Sciences du Bois et de la Forêt, Pavillon Abitibi‐Price Université Laval Québec Canada
| | - Eliot J. B. McIntire
- Faculty of Forestry University of British Columbia Vancouver British Columbia Canada
- Canadian Forest Service (Pacific Forestry Centre) Natural Resources Canada Victoria British Columbia Canada
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McIntire EJB, Chubaty AM, Cumming SG, Andison D, Barros C, Boisvenue C, Haché S, Luo Y, Micheletti T, Stewart FEC. PERFICT: A Re-imagined foundation for predictive ecology. Ecol Lett 2022; 25:1345-1351. [PMID: 35315961 PMCID: PMC9310704 DOI: 10.1111/ele.13994] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/10/2022] [Accepted: 02/10/2022] [Indexed: 12/02/2022]
Abstract
Making predictions from ecological models—and comparing them to data—offers a coherent approach to evaluate model quality, regardless of model complexity or modelling paradigm. To date, our ability to use predictions for developing, validating, updating, integrating and applying models across scientific disciplines while influencing management decisions, policies, and the public has been hampered by disparate perspectives on prediction and inadequately integrated approaches. We present an updated foundation for Predictive Ecology based on seven principles applied to ecological modelling: make frequent Predictions, Evaluate models, make models Reusable, Freely accessible and Interoperable, built within Continuous workflows that are routinely Tested (PERFICT). We outline some benefits of working with these principles: accelerating science; linking with data science; and improving science‐policy integration.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eliot J B McIntire
- Pacific Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada.,Faculty of Forestry, Forest Resources Management, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.,Département des sciences du bois et de la forêt, Pavillon Abitibi-Price, 2405, rue de la Terrasse, Université Laval, Québec City, Québec, Canada
| | - Alex M Chubaty
- Pacific Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada.,Département des sciences du bois et de la forêt, Pavillon Abitibi-Price, 2405, rue de la Terrasse, Université Laval, Québec City, Québec, Canada.,FOR-CAST Research & Analytics, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
| | - Steven G Cumming
- Département des sciences du bois et de la forêt, Pavillon Abitibi-Price, 2405, rue de la Terrasse, Université Laval, Québec City, Québec, Canada
| | - Dave Andison
- Faculty of Forestry, Forest Resources Management, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.,Bandaloop Landscape-Ecosystem Services Ltd., Nelson, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Ceres Barros
- Faculty of Forestry, Forest Resources Management, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Céline Boisvenue
- Pacific Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada.,Faculty of Forestry, Forest Resources Management, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Samuel Haché
- Canadian Wildlife Service, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Yellowknife, Northwest Territories, Canada
| | - Yong Luo
- Pacific Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada.,Forest Analysis and Inventory Branch, BC Ministry of Forests, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Tatiane Micheletti
- Faculty of Forestry, Forest Resources Management, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Frances E C Stewart
- Pacific Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada.,University of Victoria, School of Environmental Studies, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada.,Department of Biology, Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada
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