Space-for-time substitutions in climate change ecology and evolution

In an epoch of rapid environmental change, understanding and predicting how biodiversity will respond to a changing climate is an urgent challenge. Since we seldom have sufficient long-term biological data to use the past to anticipate the future, spatial climate-biotic relationships are often used as a proxy for predicting biotic responses to climate change over time. These 'space-for-time substitutions' (SFTS) have become near ubiquitous in global change biology, but with different subfields largely developing methods in isolation. We review how climate-focussed SFTS are used in four subfields of ecology and evolution, each focussed on a different type of biotic variable - population phenotypes, population genotypes, species' distributions, and ecological communities. We then examine the similarities and differences between subfields in terms of methods, limitations and opportunities. While SFTS are used for a wide range of applications, two main approaches are applied across the four subfields: spatial in situ gradient methods and transplant experiments. We find that SFTS methods share common limitations relating to (i) the causality of identified spatial climate-biotic relationships and (ii) the transferability of these relationships, i.e. whether climate-biotic relationships observed over space are equivalent to those occurring over time. Moreover, despite widespread application of SFTS in climate change research, key assumptions remain largely untested. We highlight opportunities to enhance the robustness of SFTS by addressing key assumptions and limitations, with a particular emphasis on where approaches could be shared between the four subfields.

Bioclimatic controls of CO2 assimilation near range limits of the CAM succulent tree Aloidendron dichotomum

Aloidendron dichotomum appears to be undergoing the early stages of a range shift in response to anthropogenic climate change in south-western Africa. High mortality has been recorded in warmer populations, while population expansions have been recorded in cooler poleward parts of its range. This study aimed to determine the key environmental controls on A. dichotomum photosynthesis in areas of population expansion, to inform the potential attribution of directional population expansion to anthropogenic warming. Nocturnal acid accumulation and CO2 assimilation were measured in individuals growing under a range of temperature and watering treatments in a greenhouse experiment. In addition, nocturnal acid accumulation and phosphoenolpyruvate carboxylase activity were quantified in two wild populations at the most southerly and south-easterly range extents. Multiple lines of evidence confirmed that A. dichotomum performs Crassulacean acid metabolism. Total nocturnal acid accumulation was highest at night-time temperatures of ~21.5 °C, regardless of soil water availability, and night-time CO2 assimilation rates increased with leaf temperature, suggesting a causal link to the cool southern range limit. Leaf acidity at the start of the dark period was highly predictive of nocturnal acid accumulation in all individuals, implicating light availability during the day as an important determinant of nocturnal acid accumulation.

Glacial Expansion or Interglacial Expansion? Contrasting Demographic Models of Four Cold-Adapted Fir Species in North America and East Asia

Understanding and forecasting species’ response to climate change is a critical need for future conservation and management. Two expansion hypotheses, the glacial expansion versus the interglacial expansion, have been proposed to interpret how cold-adapted organisms in the northern hemisphere respond to Quaternary climatic fluctuations. To test these two hypotheses, we originally used two pairs of high-low elevation firs from North America (Abies lasiocarpa and Abies balsamea) and East Asia (Abies chensiensis and Abies nephrolepis). Abies lasiocarpa and Abies chensiensis are widely distributed in high-elevation regions of western North America and central China. Abies balsamea and Abies nephrolepis occur in central North America and northeast China, with much lower elevations. These fir species are typical cold-adapted species and sensitive to climate fluctuations. Here, we integrated the mtDNA and cpDNA polymorphisms involving 44 populations and 585 individuals. Based on phylogeographic analyses, recent historical range expansions were indicated in two high-elevation firs (Abies lasiocarpa and Abies chensiensis) during the last glaciation (43.8–28.4 or 21.9–14.2 kya, 53.1–34.5 or 26.6–17.2 kya). Such glacial expansions in high-elevation firs were further confirmed by the evidence of species distribution modelling, geographic-driven genetic patterns, palynological records, and current distribution patterns. Unlike the north American firs, the SDM models indicated unremarkable expansion or contraction in East Asia firs for its much more stable conditions during different historical periods. Taken together, our findings highly supported that high-elevation firs experienced glacial expansion during the Quaternary climate change in East Asia and North America, as interglacial expansion within low-elevation firs. Under this situation, the critically endangered fir species distributed in high elevation would have no enough higher elevational space to migrate. Facing the increasing global warming, thus we proposed ex-situ conservation of defining conservation units as the most meaningful strategy.