Enrollment, Childbearing Motivations, and Intentions of Couples in the Creighton Model Effectiveness, Intentions, and Behaviors Assessment (CEIBA) Study

Does a short luteal phase correlate with an increased risk of miscarriage? A cohort study

BACKGROUND

Miscarriage is defined as spontaneous loss of pregnancy prior to 20 weeks gestation. With an estimated risk of 15% of clinically confirmed pregnancies ending in miscarriage, it is the most common adverse event in pregnancy. Woman's age is the primary risk factor for miscarriage, while medical conditions, including hormonal abnormalities, are also associated. Progesterone is essential for maintaining pregnancy. A short luteal phase may reflect inadequate levels of progesterone production, but it is unclear whether a short luteal phase correlates with an increase in the risk of miscarriage.

METHODS

Using a cohort study design, we conducted a secondary data analysis from four cohorts of couples who used a standardized protocol to track biomarkers of the female cycles. A short luteal phase was defined as less than 10 days, with < 11, < 9, and < 8 days as alternate definitions in sensitivity analyses. We included women who experienced a pregnancy with a known outcome, identified the length of the luteal phase in up to 3 cycles prior to conception and assessed the relationship with miscarriage using a modified Poisson regression analysis, adjusting for demographic characteristics, smoking, alcohol use and previous pregnancy history.

RESULTS

In our sample of 252 women; the overall miscarriage rate was 18.7%. The adjusted incident risk ratio of miscarriage in women who had at least one short luteal phase < 10 days, compared to those who had none, was 1.01 (95% CI: 0.57, 1.80) Similar null risk was found when assessing alternative lengths of short luteal phase. Women who had short luteal phases < 10 days in all 3 cycles prior to the conception cycle had an incident risk ratio of 2.14 (95% CI: 0.7, 6.55).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study found that a short luteal phase in the three cycles prior to conception was not associated with higher rates of miscarriage in an international cohort of women tracking their cycles, but our sample size was limited. Further research to determine if short luteal phases or luteal phase deficiency is associated with early pregnancy losses among preconception cohorts with daily tracking of cycle parameters, in addition to progesterone and human chorionic gonadotropin levels, is warranted. Additionally, future studies should include women with recurrent short luteal phases as a more likely risk factor than isolated short luteal phases.

Characteristics of menstrual cycles with or without intercourse in women with no known subfertility

STUDY QUESTION

Does sexual intercourse enhance the cycle fecundability in women without known subfertility?

SUMMARY ANSWER

Sexual intercourse (regardless of timing during the cycle) was associated with cycle characteristics suggesting higher fecundability, including longer luteal phase, less premenstrual spotting and more than 2 days of cervical fluid with estrogen-stimulated qualities.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Human females are spontaneous ovulators, experiencing an LH surge and ovulation cyclically, independent of copulation. Natural conception requires intercourse to occur during the fertile window of a woman's menstrual cycle, i.e. the 6-day interval ending on the day of ovulation. However, most women with normal fecundity do not ovulate on Day 14, thus the timing of the hypothetical fertile window varies within and between women. This variability is influenced by age and parity and other known or unknown elements. While the impact of sexual intercourse around the time of implantation on the probability of achieving a pregnancy has been discussed by some researchers, there are limited data regarding how sexual intercourse may influence ovulation occurrence and menstrual cycle characteristics in humans.

STUDY DESIGN SIZE DURATION

This study is a pooled analysis of three cohorts of women, enrolled at Creighton Model FertilityCare centers in the USA and Canada: 'Creighton Model MultiCenter Fecundability Study' (CMFS: retrospective cohort, 1990-1996), 'Time to Pregnancy in Normal Fertility' (TTP: randomized trial, 2003-2006) and 'Creighton Model Effectiveness, Intentions, and Behaviors Assessment' (CEIBA: prospective cohort, 2009-2013). We evaluated cycle phase lengths, bleeding and cervical mucus patterns and estimated the fertile window in 2564 cycles of 530 women, followed for up to 1 year.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS SETTING METHODS

Participants were US or Canadian women aged 18-40 and not pregnant, who were heterosexually active, without known subfertility and not taking exogenous hormones. Most of the women were intending to avoid pregnancy at the start of follow-up. Women recorded daily vaginal bleeding, mucus discharge and sexual intercourse using a standardized protocol and recording system for up to 1 year, yielding 2564 cycles available for analysis. The peak day of mucus discharge (generally the last day of cervical fluid with estrogen-stimulated qualities of being clear, stretchy or slippery) was used to identify the estimated day of ovulation, which we considered the last day of the follicular phase in ovulatory cycles. We used linear mixed models to assess continuous cycle parameters including cycle, menses and cycle phase lengths, and generalized linear models using Poisson regression with robust variance to assess dichotomous outcomes such as ovulatory function, short luteal phases and presence or absence of follicular or luteal bleeding. Cycles were stratified by the presence or absence of any sexual intercourse, while adjusting for women's parity, age, recent oral contraceptive use and breast feeding.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

Most women were <30 years of age (75.5%; median 27, interquartile range 24-29), non-Hispanic white (88.1%), with high socioeconomic indicators and nulliparous (70.9%). Cycles with no sexual intercourse compared to cycles with at least 1 day of sexual intercourse were shorter (29.1 days (95% CI 27.6, 30.7) versus 30.1 days (95% CI 28.7, 31.4)), had shorter luteal phases (10.8 days (95% CI 10.2, 11.5) versus 11.4 days (95% CI 10.9, 12.0)), had a higher probability of luteal phase deficiency (<10 days; adjusted probability ratio (PR) 1.31 (95% CI 1.00, 1.71)), had a higher probability of 2 days of premenstrual spotting (adjusted PR 2.15 (95% CI 1.09, 4.24)) and a higher probability of having two or fewer days of peak-type (estrogenic) cervical fluid (adjusted PR 1.49 (95% CI 1.03, 2.15)).

LIMITATIONS REASONS FOR CAUTION

Our study participants were geographically dispersed but relatively homogeneous in regard to race, ethnicity, income and educational levels, and all had male partners, which may limit the generalizability of the findings. We cannot exclude the possibility of undetected subfertility or related gynecologic disorders among some of the women, such as undetected endometriosis or polycystic ovary syndrome, which would impact the generalizability of our findings. Acute illness or stressful events might have reduced the likelihood of any intercourse during a cycle, while also altering cycle characteristics. Some cycles in the no intercourse group may have actually had undocumented intercourse or other sexual activity, but this would bias our results toward the null. The Creighton Model FertilityCare System (CrM) discourages use of barrier methods, so we believe that most instances of intercourse involved exposure to semen; however, condoms may have been used in some cycles. Our dataset lacks any information about the occurrence of female orgasm, precluding our ability to evaluate the independent or combined impact of female orgasm on cycle characteristics.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

Sexual activity may change reproductive hormonal patterns, and/or levels of reproductive hormones may influence the likelihood of sexual activity. Future work may help with understanding the extent to which exposure to seminal fluid, and/or female orgasm and/or timing of intercourse could impact menstrual cycle function. In theory, large data sets from women using menstrual and fertility tracking apps could be informative if women can be appropriately incentivized to record intercourse completely. It is also of interest to understand how cycle characteristics may differ in women with gynecological problems or subfertility.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS

Funding for the research on the three cohorts analyzed in this study was provided by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation #029258 (Creighton Model MultiCenter Fecundability Study), the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development 1K23 HD0147901-01A1 (Time to Pregnancy in Normal Fertility) and the Office of Family Planning, Office of Population Affairs, Health and Human Services 1FPRPA006035 (Creighton Model Effectiveness, Intentions, and Behaviors Assessment). The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

N/A.

Cervical mucus patterns and the fertile window in women without known subfertility: a pooled analysis of three cohorts

STUDY QUESTION

What is the normal range of cervical mucus patterns and number of days with high or moderate day-specific probability of pregnancy (if intercourse occurs on a specific day) based on cervical mucus secretion, in women without known subfertility, and how are these patterns related to parity and age?

SUMMARY ANSWER

The mean days of peak type (estrogenic) mucus per cycle was 6.4, the mean number of potentially fertile days was 12.1; parous versus nulliparous, and younger nulliparous (<30 years) versus older nulliparous women had more days of peak type mucus, and more potentially fertile days in each cycle.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

The rise in estrogen prior to ovulation supports the secretion of increasing quantity and estrogenic quality of cervical mucus, and the subsequent rise in progesterone after ovulation causes an abrupt decrease in mucus secretion. Cervical mucus secretion on each day correlates highly with the probability of pregnancy if intercourse occurs on that day, and overall cervical mucus quality for the cycle correlates with cycle fecundability. No prior studies have described parity and age jointly in relation to cervical mucus patterns.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

This study is a secondary data analysis, combining data from three cohorts of women: 'Creighton Model MultiCenter Fecundability Study' (CMFS: retrospective cohort, 1990-1996), 'Time to Pregnancy in Normal Fertility' (TTP: randomized trial, 2003-2006), and 'Creighton Model Effectiveness, Intentions, and Behaviors Assessment' (CEIBA: prospective cohort, 2009-2013). We evaluated cervical mucus patterns and estimated fertile window in 2488 ovulatory cycles of 528 women, followed for up to 1 year.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

Participants were US or Canadian women age 18-40 years, not pregnant, and without any known subfertility. Women were trained to use a standardized protocol (the Creighton Model) for daily vulvar observation, description, and recording of cervical mucus. The mucus peak day (the last day of estrogenic quality mucus) was used as the estimated day of ovulation. We conducted dichotomous stratified analyses for cervical mucus patterns by age, parity, race, recent oral contraceptive use (within 60 days), partial breast feeding, alcohol, and smoking. Focusing on the clinical characteristics most correlated to cervical mucus patterns, linear mixed models were used to assess continuous cervical mucus parameters and generalized linear models using Poisson regression with robust variance were used to assess dichotomous outcomes, stratifying by women's parity and age, while adjusting for recent oral contraceptive use and breast feeding.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

The majority of women were <30 years of age (75.4%) (median 27; IQR 24-29), non-Hispanic white (88.1%), with high socioeconomic indicators, and nulliparous (70.8%). The mean (SD) days of estrogenic (peak type) mucus per cycle (a conservative indicator of the fertile window) was 6.4 (4.2) days (median 6; IQR 4-8). The mean (SD) number of any potentially fertile days (a broader clinical indicator of the fertile window) was 12.1 (5.4) days (median 11; IQR 9-14). Taking into account recent oral contraceptive use and breastfeeding, nulliparous women age ≥30 years compared to nulliparous women age <30 years had fewer mean days of peak type mucus per cycle (5.3 versus 6.4 days, P = 0.02), and fewer potentially fertile days (11.8 versus 13.9 days, P < 0.01). Compared to nulliparous women age <30 years, the likelihood of cycles with peak type mucus ≤2 days, potentially fertile days ≤9, and cervical mucus cycle score (for estrogenic quality of mucus) ≤5.0 were significantly higher among nulliparous women age ≥30 years, 1.90 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.18, 3.06); 1.46 (95% CI 1.12, 1.91); and 1.45 (95% CI 1.03, 2.05), respectively. Between parous women, there was little difference in mucus parameters by age. Thresholds set a priori for within-woman variability of cervical mucus parameters by cycle were examined as follows: most minus fewest days of peak type mucus >3 days (exceeded by 72% of women), most minus fewest days of non-peak type mucus >4 days (exceeded by 54% of women), greatest minus least cervical mucus cycle score >4.0 (exceeded by 73% of women), and most minus fewest potentially fertile days >8 days (found in 50% of women). Race did not have any association with cervical mucus parameters. Recent oral contraceptive use was associated with reduced cervical mucus cycle score and partial breast feeding was associated with a higher number of days of mucus (both peak type and non-peak type), consistent with prior research. Among the women for whom data were available (CEIBA and TTP), alcohol and tobacco use had minimal impact on cervical mucus parameters.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

We did not have data on some factors that may impact ovulation, hormone levels, and mucus secretion, such as physical activity and body mass index. We cannot exclude the possibility that some women had unknown subfertility or undiagnosed gynecologic disorders. Only 27 women were age 35 or older. Our study participants were geographically dispersed but relatively homogeneous with regard to race, ethnicity, income, and educational level, which may limit the generalizability of the findings.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

Patterns of cervical mucus secretion observed by women are an indicator of fecundity and the fertile window that are consistent with the known associations of age and parity with fecundity. The number of potentially fertile days (12 days) is likely greater than commonly assumed, while the number of days of highly estrogenic mucus (and higher probability of pregnancy) correlates with prior identifications of the fertile window (6 days). There may be substantial variability in fecundability between cycles for the same woman. Future work can use cervical mucus secretion as an indicator of fecundity and should investigate the distribution of similar cycle parameters in women with various reproductive or gynecologic pathologies.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

Funding for the three cohorts analyzed was provided by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation (CMFS), the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (TTP), and the Office of Family Planning, Office of Population Affairs, Health and Human Services (CEIBA). The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

N/A.

Menstrual bleeding, cycle length, and follicular and luteal phase lengths in women without known subfertility: A pooled analysis of three cohorts

BACKGROUND

There is variability between women for days of menstrual bleeding, cycle lengths, follicular phase lengths, and luteal phase lengths, related to age and parity.

OBJECTIVE

To describe total cycle length; anovulatory cycles; follicular and luteal phase lengths; and days and intensity of menstrual and non-menstrual bleeding in women without known subfertility over the course of 1 year.

METHODS

581 women (3,324 cycles) with no known subfertility (18-40 years of age) were followed for up to 1 year. Women recorded vaginal bleeding and mucus discharge daily. We used the peak day of cervical mucus as the estimated day of ovulation and the last day of the follicular phase. We used generalised linear mixed models stratified by age and parity to describe menstrual cycle parameters.

RESULTS

The majority of women were <30 years of age (74.5%), non-Hispanic White (88.6%), and nulliparous (70.4%). The mean menses length was 6.2 (1.5) days, median 6; cycle length 30.3 (6.7) days, median 29; follicular phase length 18.5 (6.5) days, median 17; and luteal phase length 11.7 (2.8) days, median 12. Nulliparous women aged ≥30 years vs nulliparous women aged <30 had shorter cycles (29.2 days, 95% confidence interval (CI) 27.8, 30.7 vs 31.5 days, 95% CI 30.8, 32.2) and shorter follicular phases (17.6 days, 95% CI 16.2, 18.9 vs 19.6 days, 95% CI 18.9, 20.2). Among all women, within-woman differences between the longest and shortest menses length >3 days, total cycle length >7 days, follicular phase >7 days, and luteal phase >3 days were found in 11.6%, 43.0%, 41.7%, and 58.8% of women, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings confirm variability between women of menstrual cycle parameters related to age and parity, and also highlight within-woman variability in the follicular and luteal phases.

Current and emerging pharmacotherapy for ischemic stroke prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation

Introduction: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with high morbidity and mortality rates due to thromboembolic complications, and anticoagulation is central to the management of this common arrhythmia to prevent acute thromboembolic events. The traditional anticoagulants: heparin, fondaparinux, and vitamin K antagonists (VKA, e.g. warfarin, acenocoumarol or phenprocoumin) have long served as pharmacotherapy for ischemic stroke prophylaxis. Areas covered: In this review article, the authors provide an overview on current and emerging pharmacotherapy for ischemic stroke prevention. Furthermore, they review the data from novel therapeutic targets in the coagulation cascade, and investigational anticoagulant drugs currently assessed in preclinical and clinical studies. Expert opinion: The introduction of nonvitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) was an important milestone, as these drugs show relative efficacy, safety, and convenience compared to the VKAs. Nevertheless, their clinical use still has some limitations with, for example, patients with severe renal impairment and those with mechanical heart valves, high bleeding risks, lack of standard laboratory monitoring and (some) reversal agents. To overcome some of these limitations, various attempts are now underway to discover new strategies and targets via the hemostatic pathway in order to develop new coagulation inhibiting drugs.