1
|
Zhang X, Ding H, Ji X, Chen L, Huang P, Lin Z, Zhu J, Zhou S, Liu Z, Zhang M, Xu Q. Predicting vulnerable carotid plaques by detecting wall shear stress based on ultrasonic vector flow imaging. J Vasc Surg 2024; 80:1475-1486.e1. [PMID: 38925348 DOI: 10.1016/j.jvs.2024.06.024] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/20/2024] [Revised: 06/17/2024] [Accepted: 06/17/2024] [Indexed: 06/28/2024]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Carotid plaque vulnerability is a significant factor in the risk of cardiocerebrovascular events, with intraplaque neovascularization (IPN) being a crucial characteristic of plaque vulnerability. This study investigates the value of ultrasound vector flow imaging (V-flow) for measuring carotid plaque wall shear stress (WSS) in predicting the extent of IPN. METHODS We enrolled 140 patients into three groups: 53 in the plaque group (72 plaques), 23 in the stenosis group (27 plaques), and 64 in the control group. V-flow was used to measure WSS parameters, including the average WSS (WSS mean) and the maximum WSS (WSS max), across three plaque locations: mid-upstream, maximum thickness, and mid-downstream. Contrast-enhanced ultrasound examination was used in 76 patients to analyze IPN and its correlation with WSS parameters. RESULTS WSS max in the stenosis group was significantly higher than that in the control and plaque groups at the maximum thickness part (P < .05) and WSS mean in the stenosis group was significantly lower than that in the control group at the mid-upstream and mid-downstream segments (P < .05). WSS mean in the plaque group was significantly lower than that of the control group at all three locations (P < .05). Contrast-enhanced ultrasound examination revealed that plaques with neovascularization enhancement exhibited significantly higher WSS values (P < .05), with a positive correlation between WSS parameters and IPN enhancement grades, particularly WSS max at the thickest part (r = 0.508). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis of WSS parameters for evaluating IPN showed that the efficacy of WSS max in evaluating IPN was better than that of WSS mean (P < .05), with an area under the curve of 0.7762 and 0.6973 (95% confidence intervals, 0.725-0.822 and 0.642-0.749, respectively). The cut-offs were 4.57 Pa and 1.12 Pa, sensitivities were 74.03% and 63.64%, and specificities were 75.00% and 68.18%. CONCLUSIONS V-flow effectively measures WSS in carotid plaques. WSS max provides a promising metric for assessing IPN, offering potential insights into plaque characteristics and showing some potential in predicting plaque vulnerability.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Xiang Zhang
- Department of Ultrasonography, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Shanghai University, Wenzhou People's Hospital, Wenzhou Third Clinical Institute Affiliated to Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, China
| | - Huanhuan Ding
- Department of Ultrasonography, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Shanghai University, Wenzhou People's Hospital, Wenzhou Third Clinical Institute Affiliated to Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, China
| | - Xiaoli Ji
- Department of Ultrasonography, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Shanghai University, Wenzhou People's Hospital, Wenzhou Third Clinical Institute Affiliated to Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, China
| | - Ling Chen
- Department of Ultrasonography, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Shanghai University, Wenzhou People's Hospital, Wenzhou Third Clinical Institute Affiliated to Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, China
| | - Peipei Huang
- Department of Ultrasonography, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Shanghai University, Wenzhou People's Hospital, Wenzhou Third Clinical Institute Affiliated to Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, China
| | - Zengqiao Lin
- Department of Ultrasonography, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Shanghai University, Wenzhou People's Hospital, Wenzhou Third Clinical Institute Affiliated to Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, China
| | - Jianbi Zhu
- Department of Ultrasonography, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Shanghai University, Wenzhou People's Hospital, Wenzhou Third Clinical Institute Affiliated to Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, China
| | - Shujing Zhou
- Department of Ultrasonography, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Shanghai University, Wenzhou People's Hospital, Wenzhou Third Clinical Institute Affiliated to Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, China
| | - Zezheng Liu
- Department of Ultrasonography, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Shanghai University, Wenzhou People's Hospital, Wenzhou Third Clinical Institute Affiliated to Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, China
| | - Miaomiao Zhang
- Department of Ultrasonography, Lingkun Street Community Health Service Center of Dongtou District, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, China
| | - Qi Xu
- Department of Ultrasonography, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Shanghai University, Wenzhou People's Hospital, Wenzhou Third Clinical Institute Affiliated to Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, China.
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Li L, Dai F, Xu J, Dong J, Wu B, He S, Liu H. Geometric consistency among atherosclerotic plaques in carotid arteries evaluated by multidimensional parameters. Heliyon 2024; 10:e37419. [PMID: 39309847 PMCID: PMC11414503 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e37419] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/29/2024] [Accepted: 09/03/2024] [Indexed: 09/25/2024] Open
Abstract
The three-dimensional (3D) geometry of carotid atherosclerotic plaques is associated with multiple cardiovascular diseases. However, it is unknown if carotid plaques of different sizes are consistent in 3D geometry, with a lack of quantitative observation. We aim to evaluate the geometric consistency of carotid plaques using the correlations between multidimensional parameters. 42 cases with asymptomatic stenosis caused by atherosclerotic plaque in the carotid artery were included. Carotid plaques and calcifications were identified on computed tomography angiography images and 3D reconstructed. Multidimensional geometric parameters (length, surface area, volume, etc.) were measured on the reconstructed 3D structures. Linear and non-linear (power function) fittings were used to investigate the relationships between multidimensional parameters. The analysis was performed based on cases and plaques, respectively. Spearman rank correlation analysis, R-squared, and p-values were used to evaluate the significance of the relationship. Significant relationship was defined as R-squared >0.25 and p < 0.05. In total, 112 atherosclerotic plaques and 74 calcifications were extracted. In plaque-based analysis, significant correlations were widely observed between paired multidimensional parameters of carotid plaques, where non-linear fitting showed higher R-squared values. Plaque volume and surface area were significantly correlated with total volume and total surface area of intra-plaque calcifications. In subject-based analysis, triglycerides and total cholesterol were significantly correlated with carotid plaque size. There is a consistency in geometry among carotid atherosclerotic plaques of different sizes. The size of a carotid plaque is associated with the patient's lipid profile.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Ling Li
- Department of Neurology, Zhoushan Hospital, Wenzhou Medical University, Zhoushan, 316000, Zhejiang Province, China
- Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China
| | - Fangyu Dai
- Department of Neurology, Zhoushan Hospital, Wenzhou Medical University, Zhoushan, 316000, Zhejiang Province, China
| | - Jie Xu
- Department of Neurology, Zhoushan Hospital, Wenzhou Medical University, Zhoushan, 316000, Zhejiang Province, China
| | - Jiaoxuan Dong
- Department of Neurology, Zhoushan Hospital, Wenzhou Medical University, Zhoushan, 316000, Zhejiang Province, China
| | - Bin Wu
- Department of Neurology, People's Hospital of Quzhou, Quzhou, 324002, Zhejiang Province, China
| | - Songbin He
- Department of Neurology, Zhoushan Hospital, Wenzhou Medical University, Zhoushan, 316000, Zhejiang Province, China
- Department of Neurology, Zhoushan Hospital, Zhejiang University, School of Medicine, Zhoushan, 316000, Zhejiang Province, China
| | - Haipeng Liu
- Centre for Intelligent Healthcare, Coventry University, Coventry, CV1 5RW, UK
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Shan D, Wang S, Wang J, Lu J, Ren J, Chen J, Wang D, Qi P. Computed tomography angiography-based radiomics model for predicting carotid atherosclerotic plaque vulnerability. Front Neurol 2023; 14:1151326. [PMID: 37396779 PMCID: PMC10312009 DOI: 10.3389/fneur.2023.1151326] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/26/2023] [Accepted: 05/30/2023] [Indexed: 07/04/2023] Open
Abstract
Vulnerable carotid atherosclerotic plaque (CAP) significantly contributes to ischemic stroke. Neovascularization within plaques is an emerging biomarker linked to plaque vulnerability that can be detected using contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS). Computed tomography angiography (CTA) is a common method used in clinical cerebrovascular assessments that can be employed to evaluate the vulnerability of CAPs. Radiomics is a technique that automatically extracts radiomic features from images. This study aimed to identify radiomic features associated with the neovascularization of CAP and construct a prediction model for CAP vulnerability based on radiomic features. CTA data and clinical data of patients with CAPs who underwent CTA and CEUS between January 2018 and December 2021 in Beijing Hospital were retrospectively collected. The data were divided into a training cohort and a testing cohort using a 7:3 split. According to the examination of CEUS, CAPs were dichotomized into vulnerable and stable groups. 3D Slicer software was used to delineate the region of interest in CTA images, and the Pyradiomics package was used to extract radiomic features in Python. Machine learning algorithms containing logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), light gradient boosting machine (LGBM), adaptive boosting (AdaBoost), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and multi-layer perception (MLP) were used to construct the models. The confusion matrix, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, accuracy, precision, recall, and f-1 score were used to evaluate the performance of the models. A total of 74 patients with 110 CAPs were included. In all, 1,316 radiomic features were extracted, and 10 radiomic features were selected for machine-learning model construction. After evaluating several models on the testing cohorts, it was discovered that model_RF outperformed the others, achieving an AUC value of 0.93 (95% CI: 0.88-0.99). The accuracy, precision, recall, and f-1 score of model_RF in the testing cohort were 0.85, 0.87, 0.85, and 0.85, respectively. Radiomic features associated with the neovascularization of CAP were obtained. Our study highlights the potential of radiomics-based models for improving the accuracy and efficiency of diagnosing vulnerable CAP. In particular, the model_RF, utilizing radiomic features extracted from CTA, provides a noninvasive and efficient method for accurately predicting the vulnerability status of CAP. This model shows great potential for offering clinical guidance for early detection and improving patient outcomes.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Dezhi Shan
- Department of Neurosurgery, Beijing Hospital, National Center of Gerontology, Institute of Geriatric Medicine, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China
- Graduate School of Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Siyu Wang
- Department of Ultrasound, Beijing Hospital, National Center of Gerontology, Institute of Geriatric Medicine, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Junjie Wang
- Department of Neurosurgery, Beijing Hospital, National Center of Gerontology, Institute of Geriatric Medicine, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Jun Lu
- Department of Neurosurgery, Beijing Hospital, National Center of Gerontology, Institute of Geriatric Medicine, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Junhong Ren
- Department of Ultrasound, Beijing Hospital, National Center of Gerontology, Institute of Geriatric Medicine, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Juan Chen
- Department of Radiology, Beijing Hospital, National Center of Gerontology, Institute of Geriatric Medicine, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Daming Wang
- Department of Neurosurgery, Beijing Hospital, National Center of Gerontology, Institute of Geriatric Medicine, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China
- Graduate School of Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Peng Qi
- Department of Neurosurgery, Beijing Hospital, National Center of Gerontology, Institute of Geriatric Medicine, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Yao Y, Zhang P. Novel ultrasound techniques in the identification of vulnerable plaques-an updated review of the literature. Front Cardiovasc Med 2023; 10:1069745. [PMID: 37293284 PMCID: PMC10244552 DOI: 10.3389/fcvm.2023.1069745] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/14/2022] [Accepted: 05/08/2023] [Indexed: 06/10/2023] Open
Abstract
Atherosclerosis is an inflammatory disease partly mediated by lipoproteins. The rupture of vulnerable atherosclerotic plaques and thrombosis are major contributors to the development of acute cardiovascular events. Despite various advances in the treatment of atherosclerosis, there has been no satisfaction in the prevention and assessment of atherosclerotic vascular disease. The identification and classification of vulnerable plaques at an early stage as well as research of new treatments remain a challenge and the ultimate goal in the management of atherosclerosis and cardiovascular disease. The specific morphological features of vulnerable plaques, including intraplaque hemorrhage, large lipid necrotic cores, thin fibrous caps, inflammation, and neovascularisation, make it possible to identify and characterize plaques with a variety of invasive and non-invasive imaging techniques. Notably, the development of novel ultrasound techniques has introduced the traditional assessment of plaque echogenicity and luminal stenosis to a deeper assessment of plaque composition and the molecular field. This review will discuss the advantages and limitations of five currently available ultrasound imaging modalities for assessing plaque vulnerability, based on the biological characteristics of the vulnerable plaque, and their value in terms of clinical diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment efficacy assessment.
Collapse
|
5
|
Li R, Zhang Y, Zheng S, Cheng L, Zhang Y, Chen Z, He W, Zhang W. Noninvasive assessment of carotid plaque with subharmonic aided pressure estimation from a US contrast agent: A preliminary study. Clin Transl Sci 2023; 16:502-511. [PMID: 36606307 PMCID: PMC10014698 DOI: 10.1111/cts.13465] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/14/2022] [Revised: 11/06/2022] [Accepted: 11/12/2022] [Indexed: 01/07/2023] Open
Abstract
Stroke is closely associated with carotid plaques. The assessment of carotid plaque is still the key issue of stroke prevention in clinical practice. This prospective cross-sectional study included patients with carotid plaque evaluated by ultrasonography (US). The intima-media thickness (IMT), lumen stenosis severity, thickness, and length of carotid plaque were measured by the routine US, and the amplitudes of subharmonics in the upstream shoulder, top, and downstream shoulder of all plaques and corresponding lumens were observed by Subharmonic Aided Pressure Estimation (SHAPE) US examination from the US contrast agent perflubutane microbubbles (Sonazoid), which analyzed the clinical parameters of patients, the subharmonic amplitude characteristics of all plaques and lumens, and the parameter differences between the ischemic stroke (IS) group and control group. From May 2021 to February 2022, 46 carotid plaques of 23 patients were included. For plaques, the subharmonic amplitude in the plaque (-60.52 ± 4.46) was lower than that in the opposing level lumen (-56.82 ± 5.68 dB), the subharmonic gradient across the plaque cap was negatively correlated with plaque thickness (r = -0.51, p < 0.001), and with the lumen stenosis severity (r = -0.42, p = 0.003). The median IMT of the IS group was thicker than the control group. The subharmonic gradient of the intraplaque of the IS group was larger than the control group (p = 0.004). In this analysis, we use the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to establish the cutoff value of the difference to predict a new monitoring method for plaque without invasion to predict IS. It still needs a large-scale study with long-term follow-up to validate these findings.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Rui Li
- Department of Ultrasound, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Yukang Zhang
- Department of Ultrasound, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Shuai Zheng
- Department of Ultrasound, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Linggang Cheng
- Department of Ultrasound, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Yanfen Zhang
- Department of Ultrasound, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Zhiguang Chen
- Department of Ultrasound, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Wen He
- Department of Ultrasound, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Wei Zhang
- Department of Ultrasound, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| |
Collapse
|
6
|
Tang BY, Ge J, Wu Y, Wen J, Tang XH. The Role of ADAM17 in Inflammation-Related Atherosclerosis. J Cardiovasc Transl Res 2022; 15:1283-1296. [PMID: 35648358 DOI: 10.1007/s12265-022-10275-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/19/2021] [Accepted: 05/06/2022] [Indexed: 10/18/2022]
Abstract
Atherosclerosis is a chronic inflammatory disease that poses a huge economic burden due to its extremely poor prognosis. Therefore, it is necessary to explore potential mechanisms to improve the prevention and treatment of atherosclerosis. A disintegrin and metalloprotease 17 (ADAM17) is a cell membrane-bound protein that performs a range of functions through membrane protein shedding and intracellular signaling. ADAM17-mediated inflammation has been identified to be an important contributor to atherosclerosis; however, the specific relationship between its multiple regulatory roles and the pathogenesis of atherosclerosis remains unclear. Here, we reviewed the activation, function, and regulation of ADAM17, described in detail the role of ADAM17-mediated inflammatory damage in atherosclerosis, and discussed several controversial points. We hope that these insights into ADAM17 biology will lead to rational management of atherosclerosis. ADAM17 promotes vascular inflammation in endothelial cells, smooth muscle cells, and macrophages, and regulates the occurrence and development of atherosclerosis.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Bai-Yi Tang
- Department of Cardiology, Third Xiang-Ya Hospital, Central South University, 138 Tongzipo Road, Changsha, 410013, Hunan, China
| | - Jin Ge
- Department of Cardiology, Third Xiang-Ya Hospital, Central South University, 138 Tongzipo Road, Changsha, 410013, Hunan, China
| | - Yang Wu
- Department of Cardiology, Third Hospital of Changsha, 176 W. Laodong Road, Changsha, 410015, Hunan, China
| | - Juan Wen
- Department of Cardiology, Third Xiang-Ya Hospital, Central South University, 138 Tongzipo Road, Changsha, 410013, Hunan, China.
| | - Xiao-Hong Tang
- Department of Cardiology, Third Xiang-Ya Hospital, Central South University, 138 Tongzipo Road, Changsha, 410013, Hunan, China.
| |
Collapse
|
7
|
Wang Q, Huang Y, Zhang Y, Wang Y, Xie Y, Zhang L, Lu Y, Chen M. Carotid artery vulnerable plaque model for cerebrovascular events by conventional ultrasound & contrast-enhanced ultrasound: A preliminary study. Clin Hemorheol Microcirc 2021; 80:197-209. [PMID: 34511491 DOI: 10.3233/ch-211216] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/11/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Conventional ultrasound and contrast-enhanced ultrasound play an important role in the application of carotid plaque. AIMS To establish carotid artery vulnerable plaques model by conventional ultrasound combined with contrast-enhanced ultrasound, identify high-risk plaques that may lead to cerebrovascular events, and provide clinical risk warning of high-risk plaques of stroke. METHODS 205 cases of patients selected in 5053 patients with symptoms from 2018 to 2019 who were verified carotid plaques by conventional ultrasound and contrast-enhanced ultrasound image characteristics, 147 cases as a training set, establishing the carotid artery plaque model, analyzing the characteristic of the plaques and the relationship between cerebrovascular event, with 58 cases as a test set, verify the model. Routine carotid ultrasound and contrast-enhanced carotid ultrasound were performed in all enrolled patients. RESULTS The gray-level characteristics of conventional ultrasound in the training concentration showed statistical differences in plaque morphology, fibrous cap morphology, uniformity and calcification degree in cerebrovascular events. The contrast enhanced ultrasound characteristics of plaques showed statistical differences in neovascularization and perfusion mode in cerebrovascular events. In the test set, there were statistical differences in the above conventional gray scale features and CEUS features. CONCLUSION The vulnerable plaque model established by conventional ultrasound combined with contrast-enhanced ultrasound has good diagnostic value for the characteristic plaque of carotid artery with cerebrovascular events.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Qin Wang
- Department of Medical Ultrasound, Tong Ren Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Yunqian Huang
- Department of Medical Ultrasound, Tong Ren Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Yuke Zhang
- Department of Medical Ultrasound, Tong Ren Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Yuqun Wang
- Department of Medical Ultrasound, Tong Ren Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Yanchun Xie
- Department of Medical Ultrasound, Tong Ren Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Lixia Zhang
- Department of Medical Ultrasound, Tong Ren Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Ying Lu
- Department of Medical Ultrasound, Tong Ren Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | - Man Chen
- Department of Medical Ultrasound, Tong Ren Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
| |
Collapse
|
8
|
Nies KPH, Smits LJM, Kassem M, Nederkoorn PJ, van Oostenbrugge RJ, Kooi ME. Emerging Role of Carotid MRI for Personalized Ischemic Stroke Risk Prediction in Patients With Carotid Artery Stenosis. Front Neurol 2021; 12:718438. [PMID: 34413828 PMCID: PMC8370465 DOI: 10.3389/fneur.2021.718438] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/31/2021] [Accepted: 07/09/2021] [Indexed: 01/04/2023] Open
Abstract
Rupture of a vulnerable carotid plaque is an important cause of ischemic stroke. Prediction models can support medical decision-making by estimating individual probabilities of future events, while magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) can provide detailed information on plaque vulnerability. In this review, prediction models for medium to long-term (>90 days) prediction of recurrent ischemic stroke among patients on best medical treatment for carotid stenosis are evaluated, and the emerging role of MRI of the carotid plaque for personalized ischemic stroke prediction is discussed. A systematic search identified two models; the European Carotid Surgery Trial (ECST) medical model, and the Symptomatic Carotid Atheroma Inflammation Lumen stenosis (SCAIL) score. We critically appraised these models by means of criteria derived from the CHARMS (CHecklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modeling Studies) and PROBAST (Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool). We found both models to be at high risk of bias. The ECST model, the most widely used model, was derived from data of large but relatively old trials (1980s and 1990s), not reflecting lower risks of ischemic stroke resulting from improvements in drug treatment (e.g., statins and anti-platelet therapy). The SCAIL model, based on the degree of stenosis and positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT)-based plaque inflammation, was derived and externally validated in limited samples. Clinical implementation of the SCAIL model can be challenging due to high costs and low accessibility of PET/CT. MRI is a more readily available, lower-cost modality that has been extensively validated to visualize all the hallmarks of plaque vulnerability. The MRI methods to identify the different plaque features are described. Intraplaque hemorrhage (IPH), a lipid-rich necrotic core (LRNC), and a thin or ruptured fibrous cap (TRFC) on MRI have shown to strongly predict stroke in meta-analyses. To improve personalized risk prediction, carotid plaque features should be included in prediction models. Prediction of stroke in patients with carotid stenosis needs modernization, and carotid MRI has potential in providing strong predictors for that goal.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Kelly P H Nies
- Department of Radiology, CARIM School for Cardiovascular Diseases, Maastricht University, Maastricht, Netherlands.,Department of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, Maastricht University Medical Center, Maastricht, Netherlands
| | - Luc J M Smits
- Department of Epidemiology, Maastricht University, Maastricht, Netherlands
| | - Mohamed Kassem
- Department of Radiology, CARIM School for Cardiovascular Diseases, Maastricht University, Maastricht, Netherlands.,Department of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, Maastricht University Medical Center, Maastricht, Netherlands
| | - Paul J Nederkoorn
- Department of Neurology, Amsterdam University Medical Center, Amsterdam, Netherlands
| | - Robert J van Oostenbrugge
- Department of Radiology, CARIM School for Cardiovascular Diseases, Maastricht University, Maastricht, Netherlands.,Department of Neurology, Maastricht University Medical Center, Maastricht, Netherlands
| | - M Eline Kooi
- Department of Radiology, CARIM School for Cardiovascular Diseases, Maastricht University, Maastricht, Netherlands.,Department of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, Maastricht University Medical Center, Maastricht, Netherlands
| |
Collapse
|