A Nomogram for the Prediction of Prognosis in Patients With Distant Metastases of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

Optimized Nomogram for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Prognosis Prediction in Younger Patients (Aged 18-59): Development and Validation

PURPOSE

To develop a nomogram model for the predicted overall survival (OS) in patients aged 18 to 59 years with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) and assess the value of the clinical application.

METHODS

In total, 1334 registers of NPC patients from 2010 to 2015 were retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Univariate and multivariate Cox analysis were used to screen out independent risk factors affecting patients. Cox analysis predicted OS for patients with NPC at 3, 5, and 8 years. Nomogram performance was validated using the concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

Age, sex, race, marital, histological type, tumor size, AJCC stage, and radiotherapy were independent risk factors. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.69 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.68-0.71] for the training set, and the C-index of the AJCC stage was 0.63 (95% CI: 0.62-0.65), both statistically significant (P < .01). The area under the curve for the nomogram at these intervals (0.755, 0.729, and 0.729, respectively) was higher than that of the AJCC stage (0.667, 0.646, and 0.646, respectively), indicating better predictive accuracy. The calibration curves revealed a high degree of agreement between the observation and the prediction. Compared to the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage, DCA showed better clinical utility.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram as novel predictor for nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients' survival.

Nomogram Predicting the Benefits of Adding Concurrent Chemotherapy to Intensity-Modulated Radiotherapy After Induction Chemotherapy in Stages II-IVb Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

Background

To compare the efficacy of induction chemotherapy plus concurrent chemoradiotherapy (IC+CCRT) versus induction chemotherapy plus radiotherapy (IC+RT) in patients with locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC).

Patients and Methods

One thousand three hundred twenty four patients with newly-diagnosed NPC treated with IC+CCRT or IC+RT were enrolled. Progression-free survival (PFS), distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS), overall survival (OS), locoregional relapse-free survival (LRFS), and acute toxicities during radiotherapy were compared using propensity score matching (PSM). A nomogram was developed to predict the 3- and 5-year PFS with or without concurrent chemotherapy (CC).

Results

PSM assigned 387 patients to the IC+CCRT group and IC+RT group, respectively. After 3 years, no significant difference in PFS (84.7 vs. 87.5%, P = 0.080), OS (95.5 vs. 97.6%, P = 0.123), DMFS (89.7 vs. 92.8%, P = 0.134), or LRFS (94.0 vs. 94.1%, P = 0.557) was noted between the groups. Subgroup analysis indicated comparable survival outcomes in low-risk NPC patients (II–III with EBV DNA <4,000 copies/ml) between the groups, although IC+RT alone was associated with fewer acute toxicities. However, IC+CCRT was associated with significantly higher 3−year PFS, OS, DMFS, and LRFS rates, relative to IC+RT alone, in high-risk NPC patients (IVa-b or EBV DNA ≥4,000 copies/ml). Multivariate analysis showed that T category, N category, EBV DNA level, and treatment group were predictive of PFS, and were hence incorporated into the nomogram. The nomogram predicted that the magnitude of benefit from CC could vary significantly.

Conclusions

IC+RT had similar efficacy as IC+CCRT in low-risk NPC patients, but was associated with fewer acute toxicities. However, in high-risk patients, IC+CCRT was superior to IC+RT.

A novel nomogram to predict survival in patients with recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma after salvage endoscopic surgery

OBJECTIVES

To develop and validate a nomogram to predict survival in patients with recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) after salvage endoscopic surgery.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 229 eligible patients with recurrent NPC were divided into training (n = 115) and validation (n = 114) cohorts. A multivariate Cox proportional risk regression model was used to identify significant prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) in the training cohort. A nomogram was then developed based on the regression model. The performance of the nomogram was assessed with regard to discrimination and calibration. Patients were divided into low-risk or high-risk groups based on the risk scores derived from the nomogram. Furthermore, decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to assess the clinical utility of the nomogram.

RESULTS

Six significant predictors were identified: diabetes mellitus, body mass index (BMI), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), T stage, lymph node metastasis, and tumor necrosis. The nomogram incorporating these six predictors demonstrated favorable discrimination and calibration in the training cohort, with a C-index of 0.746 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.656-0.836), which was subsequently confirmed in the validation cohort (C-index 0.768 [95% CI 0.675-0.861]). Furthermore, the nomogram successfully distinguished patients into low- and high-risk groups. DCA indicated that the nomogram was clinically useful.

CONCLUSIONS

The novel nomogram demonstrated its potential as an individual tool to predict survival in patients with recurrent NPC after salvage endoscopic surgery.

Pattern and prognosis of distant metastases in nasopharyngeal carcinoma: A large-population retrospective analysis

Currently, the features and prognosis of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) with distant metastases are still rarely reported. Thus, the main purpose of our study was to investigate the metastasis patterns of different histological types of NPC and to clarify the prognostic characteristics of metastases at different sites. Patients were enrolled from the SEER program from 2010 to 2016. Chi‐squared tests were used to compare features between groups. The tendency to develop combined metastases was assessed with the odds ratio. The Kaplan‐Meier method was used for the survival analysis. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were used to select the independent prognostic risk factors for inclusion in the nomogram. In the present study, we found the following: (1) tumors are highly likely to metastasize if they have a larger volume, the regional lymph nodes are relatively large, or the regional lymph nodes are biopsied but not removed; (2) the bone and the brain were the most and least common metastatic sites among all histological types and N stages. Metastasis at two sites was the most common pattern, and bone metastasis was generally associated with metastasis to the liver or brain; (3) the prognostic analyses in metastatic patients showed that cancer‐specific survival (CSS) was relatively worse in patients with multiple metastases, and in those with liver metastasis regardless of the number of other metastatic sites; (4) A nomogram was constructed for clinical use based on four independent prognostic risk indicators, including histology, radiation therapy, chemotherapy, and metastatic status. Our findings provide a reference for clinical decision‐making and future diagnostic screening tests for NPC with distant metastases.

A nomogram to predict cadmium-induced renal tubular dysfunction

Cadmium-induced renal dysfunction varies between individuals. It would be valuable to figure out those susceptible individuals or predict the risk of cadmium induced renal dysfunction. In the present study, we used a nomogram model to identify high-risk of cadmium-induced renal tubular dysfunction. 342 subjects living in low and moderately cadmium polluted areas were included in this study. The daily cadmium intake from food (FCd) was estimated using food survey. The cadmium in blood (BCd) and urine (UCd) were detected by using flame atomic absorption spectrometry. Urinary β₂Microglobulin (UBMG) was chosen as indicator of renal dysfunction. Logistic regression was used to select the independent risk factors for renal dysfunction. Bootstrap self-sampling and calibration curves were performed to quantify our modeling strategy. Age, sex, BCd and TCd were used to construct the nomogam in total population; age, BCd and TCd were adopted in women; age and BCd were used in men. The internal validation showed the C-index was 0.76 (95% 47 confidence interval (CI): 0.71–0.82) in total population, 0.74 (95% CI: 0.69–0.79) in men and 0.78 (95% CI: 0.72–0.84) in women. The area under the curve of the nomogram was 0.77 (95% CI: 0.71–0.83) in total population, 0.82(95% CI: 0.74–0.90) in women and 0.74(95% CI: 0.66–0.82) in men. Nomogram may be a rapid and simple risk assessment tool for predicting high-risk of renal tubular dysfunction in subjects exposed cadmium.