Do Elderly Patients With Stage I-II Hepatocellular Carcinoma Benefit From More Radical Surgeries? A Population-Based Analysis

OHCCPredictor: an online risk stratification model for predicting survival duration of older patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Although the elderly constitute more than a third of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients, they have not been adequately represented in treatment and prognosis studies. Thus, there is not enough evidence to guide the treatment of such patients. The objective of this study is to identify the prognostic factors of older patients with HCC and to construct a new prognostic model for predicting their overall survival (OS).

METHODS

2,721 HCC patients aged ≥ 65 were extracted from the public database-Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) and randomly divided into a training set and an internal validation set with a ratio of 7:3. 101 patients diagnosed from 2008 to 2017 in the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University School of Medicine were identified as the external validation set. Univariate cox regression analyses and multivariate cox regression analyses were adopted to identify these independent prognostic factors. A predictive nomogram-based risk stratification model was proposed and evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curves, and a decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

These attributes including age, sex, marital status, T stage, N stage, surgery, chemotherapy, tumor size, alpha-fetoprotein level, fibrosis score, bone metastasis, lung metastasis, and grade were the independent prognostic factors for older patients with HCC while predicting survival duration. We found that the nomogram provided a good assessment of OS at 1, 3, and 5 years in older patients with HCC (1-year OS: (training set: AUC = 0.823 (95%CI 0.803-0.845); internal validation set: AUC = 0.847 (95%CI 0.818-0.876); external validation set: AUC = 0.732 (95%CI 0.521-0.943)); 3-year OS: (training set: AUC = 0.813 (95%CI 0.790-0.837); internal validation set: AUC = 0.844 (95%CI 0.812-0.876); external validation set: AUC = 0.780 (95%CI 0.674-0.887)); 5-year OS: (training set: AUC = 0.839 (95%CI 0.806-0.872); internal validation set: AUC = 0.800 (95%CI 0.751-0.849); external validation set: AUC = 0.821 (95%CI 0.727-0.914)). The calibration curves showed that the nomogram was with strong calibration. The DCA indicated that the nomogram can be used as an effective tool in clinical practice. The risk stratification of all subgroups was statistically significant (p < 0.05). In the stratification analysis of surgery, larger resection (LR) achieved a better survival curve than local destruction (LD), but a worse one than segmental resection (SR) and liver transplantation (LT) (p < 0.0001). With the consideration of the friendship to clinicians, we further developed an online interface (OHCCPredictor) for such a predictive function ( https://juntaotan.shinyapps.io/dynnomapp_hcc/ ). With such an easily obtained online tool, clinicians will be provided helpful assistance in formulating personalized therapy to assess the prognosis of older patients with HCC.

CONCLUSIONS

Age, sex, marital status, T stage, N stage, surgery, chemotherapy, tumor size, AFP level, fibrosis score, bone metastasis, lung metastasis, and grade were independent prognostic factors for elderly patients with HCC. The constructed nomogram model based on the above factors could accurately predict the prognosis of such patients. Besides, the developed online web interface of the predictive model provide easily obtained access for clinicians.

Safety and oncological benefits of hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma in octogenarians

BACKGROUND

The number of octogenarians requiring surgery for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is increasing. However, the safety of hepatectomy in octogenarians remains controversial. The aim of this retrospective study was to determine the effect of age on the short- and long-term outcomes of hepatectomy for HCC to evaluate the safety of hepatectomy for octogenarians.

METHODS

Data from a total of 845 patients who underwent initial hepatectomy for HCC between April 1990 and March 2021 were retrospectively reviewed. Patients were categorized based on the age at the time of surgery (<80 years, n = 790; ≥80 years, n = 55), and the short- and long-term postoperative outcomes of the two groups were compared to evaluate whether hepatectomy is appropriate for octogenarian patients.

RESULTS

The proportion of octogenarian patients undergoing hepatectomy increased from 2.6% in 1990-1995 to 16.8% in 2016-2020 (P < 0.001), and the overall incidences of anatomical and major hepatectomy have increased. There was no significant difference in the morbidity rate between the octogenarians and the group of patients <80 years old (60.0% vs. 54.4%, P = 0.420), and the 90-day mortality rate was 0% in the octogenarian group. Furthermore, the two groups had similar overall survival and recurrence-free survival rates (P = 0.173 and 0.671, respectively).

CONCLUSION

Favorable postoperative outcomes following initial hepatectomy for HCC are achieved in appropriately selected octogenarians.