A Nomogram Based on Serum Biomarkers and Clinical Characteristics to Predict Survival in Patients With Non-Metastatic Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

Enhancing Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Survival Prediction: Integrating Pre- and Post-Treatment MRI Radiomics with Clinical Data

Recurrences are frequent in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) despite high remission rates with treatment, leading to considerable morbidity. This study aimed to develop a prediction model for NPC survival by harnessing both pre- and post-treatment magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) radiomics in conjunction with clinical data, focusing on 3-year progression-free survival (PFS) as the primary outcome. Our comprehensive approach involved retrospective clinical and MRI data collection of 276 eligible NPC patients from three independent hospitals (180 in the training cohort, 46 in the validation cohort, and 50 in the external cohort) who underwent MRI scans twice, once within 2 months prior to treatment and once within 10 months after treatment. From the contrast-enhanced T1-weighted images before and after treatment, 3404 radiomics features were extracted. These features were not only derived from the primary lesion but also from the adjacent lymph nodes surrounding the tumor. We conducted appropriate feature selection pipelines, followed by Cox proportional hazards models for survival analysis. Model evaluation was performed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, the Kaplan-Meier method, and nomogram construction. Our study unveiled several crucial predictors of NPC survival, notably highlighting the synergistic combination of pre- and post-treatment data in both clinical and radiomics assessments. Our prediction model demonstrated robust performance, with an accuracy of AUCs of 0.66 (95% CI: 0.536-0.779) in the training cohort, 0.717 (95% CI: 0.536-0.883) in the testing cohort, and 0.827 (95% CI: 0.684-0.948) in validation cohort in prognosticating patient outcomes. Our study presented a novel and effective prediction model for NPC survival, leveraging both pre- and post-treatment clinical data in conjunction with MRI features. Its constructed nomogram provides potentially significant implications for NPC research, offering clinicians a valuable tool for individualized treatment planning and patient counseling.

Development and validation of a practical score to predict 3-year distant metastatic free survival in nasopharyngeal carcinoma incorporating the number of lymph node regions

INTRODUCTION

The improvement in diagnosis and treatment for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) has shifted the pattern of failure toward distant metastasis. This study aimed to develop a simplified prognostic scoring model to predict distant metastatic free survival (DMFS) for NPC patients.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Patients with non-metastatic NPC were identified from a retrospective cohort diagnosed between 2010 and 2018. Flexible parametric survival analysis was used to identify potential predictors for DMFS and establish a scoring model. The prognostic accuracy between the 8th AJCC system and the scoring model was compared using Harrell's C-index.

RESULTS

Of the total 393 patients, the median follow-up time was 85 months. The 3-year DMFS rate was 83.3%. Gender, T-stage, pre-EBV (cut-off 2300 copies/ml), and the number of metastatic lymph node regions were identified as independent risk factors for distant metastasis and were included in the final scoring model. Our established model achieved a high C-index in predicting DMFS (0.79) and was well-calibrated. The score divided patients into two categories: low-risk (score 0-4) and high-risk (score 5-7), corresponding with the predicted 3-year DMFS of 96% and 64.5%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

A feasible and applicative prognostic score was established and validated to discriminate NPC patients into low- and high-risk groups.

Combined pretreatment neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio and platelet-lymphocyte ratio predicts survival and prognosis in patients with non-metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma: a retrospective study

The clinical significance of the combination of neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) is unclear. This study investigated the predictive value of pretreatment NLR (pre-NLR) combined with pretreatment PLR (pre-PLR) for the survival and prognosis of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). A total of 765 patients with non-metastatic NPC from two hospitals were retrospectively analyzed. The pre-NLR-PLR groups were as follows: HRG, high pre-NLR and high pre-PLR. MRG, high pre-NLR and low pre-PLR or low pre-NLR and high pre-PLR. LRG, neither high pre-NLR nor high pre-PLR. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to identify the cutoff-value and discriminant performance of the model. We compared survival rates and factors affecting the prognosis among different groups. The 5-year overall survival (OS), local regional recurrence-free survival (LRRFS) and distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) of NPC patients in HRG were significantly poorer than those in MRG and LRG. The pre-NLR-PLR score was positively correlated with T stage, clinical stage, ECOG, and pathological classification. Multivariate cox regression analysis showed that pre-NLR-PLR scoring system, ECOG, pre-ALB, pre-CRP and pre-LMR were independent risk factors affecting 5-year OS, LRRFS and DMFS. The ROC curve showed that area under the curve (AUC) values of pre-NLR-PLR of 5-year OS, LRRFS and DMFS were higher than those of pre-NLR and pre-PLR. pre-NLR-PLR is an independent risk factor for the prognosis of NPC. The pre-NLR-PLR scoring system can be used as an individualized clinical assessment tool to predict the prognosis of patients with non-metastatic NPC more accurately and easily.

Conditional survival nomogram for monitoring real-time survival of young non-metastatic nasopharyngeal cancer survivors

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to clarify the improvement of the overall survival (OS) over time in young non-metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) survivors by conditional survival (CS) analysis and to construct a CS-nomogram for updating individualized real-time prognosis.

METHODS

The study included 3409 young non-metastatic NPC patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database (2004-2019). OS was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. CS was calculated based on CS(y|x) = OS(y + x)/OS(x), defined as the probability that a patient would survive for another y years after surviving for x years since diagnosis. We identified predictors using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and developed the CS-nomogram using multivariate Cox regression and the CS formula.

RESULTS

CS analysis showed a continuous increase in 10-year OS for young non-metastatic NPC from the initial 60.4% to 65.0%, 70.2%, 74.2%, 78.2%, 82.6%, 86.9%, 91.1%, 96.2% and 97.0% (surviving 1-9 years after diagnosis, respectively). After screening by LASSO regression, age, race, marital status, histological type, T- and N-status were used as predictors to construct the CS-nomogram. The model accurately estimated the real-time prognosis of survivors during follow-up with a stable time-dependent area under the curve (AUC).

CONCLUSIONS

CS analysis based on SEER database calibrated the real-time prognosis of young non-metastatic NPC survivors, revealing a dynamic improvement during follow-up time. We developed a novel CS-nomogram to update survival data for real-time optimization of monitoring strategies, medical resource allocation, and patient counseling. However, it was important to note that the model still needed external data validation and continuous improvement.

Prognostic value of EBV DNA and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio in patients with non-metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma: a retrospective study

PURPOSE

Analyzing the prognostic value of Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) DNA load and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) in non-metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients, thereby developing a reliable and effective marker.

METHODS

We compared survival rates among different groups using the Kaplan-Meier method and the Log-rank test. The factors affecting the prognosis of NPC patients were determined using univariate and multivariate cox regression analysis. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to identify the cutoff-value and discriminant performance of the model.

RESULTS

The ROC curve indicated a cut-off value of 775 copies/ml for EBV DNA and 203.3 for PLR. Kaplan-Meier and Log-rank tests showed that 3-year overall survival (OS), local recurrence-free survival (LRFS) and distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) of NPC patients in high risk group (HRG) were significantly poorer than those in medium risk group (MRG) and low risk group (LRG). The 3-year OS of NPC patients was significantly correlated with age, N stage and EBV DNA-PLR. The 3-year LRFS were significantly correlated with sex, N stage, histology type, and EBV DNA-PLR. The 3-year DMFS were correlated with histology type. The ROC curve showed that area under the curve (AUC) values of EBV DNA-PLR of 3-year OS, LRFS and DMFS in NPC were higher than those of PLR and EBV DNA.

CONCLUSION

EBV DNA-PLR is an independent risk factor for the prognosis of NPC. Compared with PLR or EBV DNA alone, the combination of EBV DNA and PLR may be more accurate in predicting the prognosis of NPC patients.

Outcome prediction models incorporating clinical variables for Head and Neck Squamous cell Carcinoma: A systematic review of methodological conduct and risk of bias

Multiple outcome prediction models have been developed for Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (HNSCC). This systematic review aimed to identify HNSCC outcome prediction model studies, assess their methodological quality and identify those with potential utility for clinical practice. Inclusion criteria were mucosal HNSCC prognostic prediction model studies (development or validation) incorporating clinically available variables accessible at time of treatment decision making and predicting tumour-related outcomes. Eligible publications were identified from PubMed and Embase. Methodological quality and risk of bias were assessed using the checklist for critical appraisal and data extraction for systematic reviews of prediction modelling studies (CHARMS) and prediction model risk of bias assessment tool (PROBAST). Eligible publications were categorised by study type for reporting. 64 eligible publications were identified; 55 reported model development, 37 external validations, with 28 reporting both. CHARMS checklist items relating to participants, predictors, outcomes, handling of missing data, and some model development and evaluation procedures were generally well-reported. Less well-reported were measures accounting for model overfitting and model performance measures, especially model calibration. Full model information was poorly reported (3/55 model developments), specifically model intercept, baseline survival or full model code. Most publications (54/55 model developments, 28/37 external validations) were found to have high risk of bias, predominantly due to methodological issues in the PROBAST analysis domain. The identified methodological issues may affect prediction model accuracy in heterogeneous populations. Independent external validation studies in the local population and demonstration of clinical impact are essential for the clinical implementation of outcome prediction models.

A nomogram to predict survival and guide individualized induction chemotherapy in T3-4N1M0 nasopharyngeal carcinoma

Induction chemotherapy (IC) plus concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) and CCRT alone were the optional treatment regimens for T3-4N1M0 nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients. Therefore, we established a nomogram to predict clinical prognosis and guide individualized IC in T3-4N1M0 NPC. Overall, 699 T3-4N1M0 NPC patients treated with CCRT with or without IC between January 2010 and December 2018 were examined. Overall survival (OS) was the main endpoint. A nomogram was developed that included prognostic variables selected by multivariable analysis. The risk score, which was calculated according to the nomogram, was used for risk stratification. The survival difference of patients undergoing CCRT with or without IC was then compared in risk-stratified subgroups. The nomogram yielded C-indexes of 0.708 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.682-0.734) in the training cohort and 0.670 (95% CI: 0.625-0.715) in the validation cohort. Calibration curves for 1-, 3- and 5-year OS suggested a good association between the nomogram predicted and observed probabilities. High-risk patients stratified by nomogram benefited from IC (IC + CCRT vs CCRT: 5-year OS: 77.8% vs 58.8%; P = 0.040; 5-year disease-free survival: 75.0% vs 58.2%; P = 0.017), whereas in the low-risk group, the application of IC was associated with worse locoregional recurrence-free survival and distant metastasis-free survival. This nomogram can serve as a reliable model for prognostic prediction and can be used to guide individualized treatment of T3-4N1M0 NPC. High-risk patients are candidates for IC before CCRT, while the use of IC for low-risk patients should be considered carefully.

Nedaplatin-based chemotherapy or cisplatin-based chemotherapy combined with intensity-modulated radiotherapy achieve similar efficacy for stage II-IVa nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients

This retrospective study compared the efficacy and safety of nedaplatin-based chemoradiotherapy and cisplatin-based chemoradiotherapy in stage II-IVa nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients. Patients treated with cisplatin-based or nedaplatin-based chemoradiotherapy between January 2012 and December 2015 were evaluated. Survival was estimated by the Kaplan‒Meier method and compared by the log-rank test. Multivariate analysis was performed using the Cox proportional hazards model. A cohort of 538 NPC patients was enrolled. There were no significant differences in the 5-year overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), locoregional relapse-free survival (LRRFS), or distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) between the cisplatin and nedaplatin groups. During the whole treatment course, patients in the cisplatin group had higher incidences of grade 3‒4 vomiting and anorexia, while patients in the nedaplatin group had higher incidences of grade 3‒4 leucopenia and mucositis. In terms of late toxicities, patients in the cisplatin group had a higher incidence of xerostomia. In multivariate analysis, T stage, N stage, and clinical stage were prognostic factors for OS, PFS, and DMFS. In subgroup analyses, nedaplatin-based chemotherapy achieved comparable treatment outcomes in specific populations stratified by age, sex, ECOG PS score and clinical stage. Cisplatin and nedaplatin are effective choices for stage II-IVa NPC patients, with a different spectrum of side effects.

Nomogram for distant metastasis-free survival in patients with locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a nomogram to predict distant metastasis-free survival of patients with locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma.

METHODS

We collected the total clinical data of 820 nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients, of whom 482 formed the training cohort from one hospital and 328 made up the validation cohort from another hospital. By analyzing the prognosis of all patients after intensity-modulated radiotherapy by univariate and multivariate Cox regression models, a nomogram related to DMFS was created in the training cohort. The discriminatory and calibration power of the nomogram was successively assessed in the training and validation cohorts by the C‑index and calibration curve. The predictive ability for 3‑year DMFS was compared between the nomogram and TNM stage using ROC curves. Patients were divided into different risk groups based on scores calculated from the nomogram.

RESULTS

Age, lymph node gross tumor volume (GTVnd), and gross tumor volume of the nasopharynx (GTVnx) were the factors included in the nomogram. The C‑index of the nomogram was 0.721 in the training cohort and 0.750 in the validation cohort. The calibration curves were satisfactory. Patients in the high-risk group were more likely to develop metastases.

CONCLUSION

A nomogram incorporating age, GTVnd, and GTVnx showed good performance for predicting DMFS in patients with locoregionally advanced NPC.

Institutionally validated nomogram predicting prognosis for older patients with nonmetastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma

Aim: Older adult patients with nonmetastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) have poor outcomes relative to younger patients. The authors' group established a nomogram to predict the overall survival of older adults with NPC and inform patient management. Methods: Cases with NPC (n = 782) were enrolled in this study; clinical data in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database from 2010 to 2015 served as the training cohort (n = 657), and patients from Jiangxi Cancer Hospital (n = 125) served as the external validation cohort. Results: Training and external validation cohort C-index, receiver operator characteristics curves and calibration curves showed that our nomogram has great predictive ability. Conclusions: Compared with tumor-node-metastasis staging, this nomogram can help clinicians better predict the prognosis of older adults with nonmetastatic NPC.

Development and validation of a risk prediction score for patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma

Background

We aimed to develop and validate a predictive model for the overall survival (OS) of patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC).

Methods

Overall, 519 patients were retrospectively reviewed in this study. In addition, a random forest model was used to identify significant prognostic factors for OS among NPC patients. Then, calibration plot and concordance index (C-index) were utilized to evaluate the predictive accuracy of the nomogram model.

Results

We used a random forest model to select the three most important features, dNLR, HGB and EBV DNA, which were significantly associated with the OS of NPC patients. Furthermore, the C-index of our model for OS were 0.733 (95% CI 0.673 ~ 0.793) and 0.772 (95% CI 0.691 ~ 0.853) in the two cohorts, which was significantly higher than that of the TNM stage, treatment, and EBV DNA. Based on the model risk score, patients were divided into two groups, associated with low-risk and high-risk. Kaplan–Meier curves demonstrated that the two subgroups were significantly associated with OS in the primary cohort, as well as in the validation cohort. The nomogram for OS was established using the risk score, TNM stage and EBV DNA in the two cohorts. The nomogram achieved a higher C-index of 0.783 (95% CI 0.730 ~ 0.836) than that of the risk score model 0.733 (95% CI 0.673 ~ 0.793) in the primary cohort (P = 0.005).

Conclusions

The established risk score model and nomogram resulted in more accurate prognostic prediction for individual patient with NPC.

LncRNA FOXD3-AS1 Promotes the Malignant Progression of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Through Enhancing the Transcription of YBX1 by H3K27Ac Modification

BACKGROUND

Long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs) can affect the progression of various tumors, including nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). Here, lncRNA FOXD3-AS1 is highly expressed in NPC tissues through bioinformatics analysis and related to the malignant progression of NPC.

METHODS

Bioinformatics analysis and real-time reverse transcription quantitative PCR(RT-qPCR) assay were applied to identify the expression of FOXD3-AS1 in NPC tissues and cells. Specific short hairpin RNAs (shRNAs) or overexpression plasmids were used to knockdown or upregulate FOXD3-AS1 in NPC cells. The effect of FOXD3-AS1 on proliferation and metastasis of NPC was confirmed by CCK8, colony formation, transwell assays in vitro and mouse tumor growth and metastasis models in vivo, of which the mechanism was explored by RNA pull down, mass spectrometry (MS), RNA Immunoprecipitation (RIP), chromatin immunoprecipitation (CHIP) and luciferase assays.

RESULTS

FOXD3-AS1 was highly expressed in NPC tissues and cells. Knockdown of FOXD3-AS1 significantly inhibited proliferation, migration, and invasion of NPC cells in vitro and vivo. FOXD3-AS1 could specifically bind to YBX1 and have a positive effect on the expression of YBX1. Bioinformatics analysis showed that the promoter of YBX1 had a high enrichment of H3K27ac, which promote mRNA transcription and protein translation of YBX1. Moreover, overexpression of YBX1 could reverse the proliferation, migration and invasion arrest caused by FOXD3-AS1 knockdown.

CONCLUSION

LncRNA FOXD3-AS1 is highly expressed and promotes malignant phenotype in NPC, which may provide a new molecular mechanism for NPC.

Establishment of a Prognostic Nomogram for Patients With Locoregionally Advanced Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Incorporating TNM Stage, Post-Induction Chemotherapy Tumor Volume and Epstein-Barr Virus DNA Load

Objectives

To establish and validate an effective nomogram to predict clinical outcomes for patients with locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (LA-NPC).

Materials and Methods

The clinicopathological parameters and follow-up information of 402 locoregionally advanced NPC patients (training cohort, n = 302; validation cohort, n = 100) were retrospectively enrolled. The nomogram was built with the important prognostic variables identified by Cox regression analysis. Overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were the primary and secondary endpoints, respectively. The predictive power and clinical utility of the nomogram were assessed using the Harrell concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis. We compared the eighth staging system model with the nomogram to analyze whether the model could improve the accuracy of prognosis

Results

Epstein–Barr virus (EBV) DNA load, the gross tumor volume (GTVnx), and cervical lymph node tumor volume (GTVnd) after induction chemotherapy were the independent predictors of OS and PFS. The calibration curves indicated superb agreement between the nomogram-predicted probabilities and observed actual probabilities of survival. The C-index and area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) of the nomogram integrating these significant factors and N stage, and TNM stage were higher than those of the eighth TNM system alone. In addition, the decision curve analyses demonstrated the clinical value and higher overall net benefit of the nomogram. High-risk groups identified by the nomogram had significantly poorer OS and PFS than the low-risk group (p < 0.05).

Conclusions

The multidimensional nomogram incorporating TNM stage, EBV DNA load, and tumor volume after induction chemotherapy led to a more precise prognostic prediction and could be helpful for stratifying risk and guiding treatment decisions in locoregionally advanced NPC patients who have undergone induction chemotherapy and concurrent chemoradiation.