Genetically Predicted C-Reactive Protein Associated With Postmenopausal Breast Cancer Risk: Interrelation With Estrogen and Cancer Molecular Subtypes Using Mendelian Randomization

Association between circulating inflammatory markers and adult cancer risk: a Mendelian randomization analysis

BACKGROUND

Tumour-promoting inflammation is a "hallmark" of cancer and conventional epidemiological studies have reported links between various inflammatory markers and cancer risk. The causal nature of these relationships and, thus, the suitability of these markers as intervention targets for cancer prevention is unclear.

METHODS

We meta-analysed 6 genome-wide association studies of circulating inflammatory markers comprising 59,969 participants of European ancestry. We then used combined cis-Mendelian randomization and colocalisation analysis to evaluate the causal role of 66 circulating inflammatory markers in risk of 30 adult cancers in 338,294 cancer cases and up to 1,238,345 controls. Genetic instruments for inflammatory markers were constructed using genome-wide significant (P < 5.0 × 10-8) cis-acting SNPs (i.e., in or ±250 kb from the gene encoding the relevant protein) in weak linkage disequilibrium (LD, r2 < 0.10). Effect estimates were generated using inverse-variance weighted random-effects models and standard errors were inflated to account for weak LD between variants with reference to the 1000 Genomes Phase 3 CEU panel. A false discovery rate (FDR)-corrected P-value ("q-value") <0.05 was used as a threshold to define "strong evidence" to support associations and 0.05 ≤ q-value < 0.20 to define "suggestive evidence". A colocalisation posterior probability (PPH4) >70% was employed to indicate support for shared causal variants across inflammatory markers and cancer outcomes. Findings were replicated in the FinnGen study and then pooled using meta-analysis.

FINDINGS

We found strong evidence to support an association of genetically-proxied circulating pro-adrenomedullin concentrations with increased breast cancer risk (OR: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.10-1.29, q-value = 0.033, PPH4 = 84.3%) and suggestive evidence to support associations of interleukin-23 receptor concentrations with increased pancreatic cancer risk (OR: 1.42, 95% CI: 1.20-1.69, q-value = 0.055, PPH4 = 73.9%), prothrombin concentrations with decreased basal cell carcinoma risk (OR: 0.66, 95% CI: 0.53-0.81, q-value = 0.067, PPH4 = 81.8%), and interleukin-1 receptor-like 1 concentrations with decreased triple-negative breast cancer risk (OR: 0.92, 95% CI: 0.88-0.97, q-value = 0.15, PPH4 = 85.6%). These findings were replicated in pooled analyses with the FinnGen study. Though suggestive evidence was found to support an association of macrophage migration inhibitory factor concentrations with increased bladder cancer risk (OR: 2.46, 95% CI: 1.48-4.10, q-value = 0.072, PPH4 = 76.1%), this finding was not replicated when pooled with the FinnGen study. For 22 of 30 cancer outcomes examined, there was little evidence (q-value ≥0.20) that any of the 66 circulating inflammatory markers examined were associated with cancer risk.

INTERPRETATION

Our comprehensive joint Mendelian randomization and colocalisation analysis of the role of circulating inflammatory markers in cancer risk identified potential roles for 4 circulating inflammatory markers in risk of 4 site-specific cancers. Contrary to reports from some prior conventional epidemiological studies, we found little evidence of association of circulating inflammatory markers with the majority of site-specific cancers evaluated.

FUNDING

Cancer Research UK (C68933/A28534, C18281/A29019, PPRCPJT∖100005), World Cancer Research Fund (IIG_FULL_2020_022), National Institute for Health Research (NIHR202411, BRC-1215-20011), Medical Research Council (MC_UU_00011/1, MC_UU_00011/3, MC_UU_00011/6, and MC_UU_00011/4), Academy of Finland Project 326291, European Union's Horizon 2020 grant agreement no. 848158 (EarlyCause), French National Cancer Institute (INCa SHSESP20, 2020-076), Versus Arthritis (21173, 21754, 21755), National Institutes of Health (U19 CA203654), National Cancer Institute (U19CA203654).

Genetically Determined Chronic Low-Grade Inflammation and Hundreds of Health Outcomes in the UK Biobank and the FinnGen Population: A Phenome-Wide Mendelian Randomization Study

Background

C-reactive protein (CRP) has been used as a biomarker of chronic low-grade inflammation in observational studies. We aimed to determine whether genetically determined CRP was associated with hundreds of human phenotypes to guide anti-inflammatory interventions.

Methods

We used individual data from the UK Biobank to perform a phenome-wide two-stage least squares (2SLS) Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis for CRP with 879 diseases. Summary-level data from the FinnGen consortium were utilized to perform phenome-wide two-sample MR analysis on 821 phenotypes. Systematic two-sample MR methods included MR-IVW, MR-WME, MR-Mod, and MR-PRESSO as sensitivity analyses combined with multivariable MR to identify robust associations. Genetic correlation analysis was applied to identify shared genetic risks.

Results

We found genetically determined CRP was robustly associated with 15 diseases in the UK Biobank and 11 diseases in the FinnGen population (P < 0.05 for all MR analyses). CRP was positively associated with tongue cancer, bronchitis, hydronephrosis, and acute pancreatitis and negatively associated with colorectal cancer, colon cancer, cerebral ischemia, electrolyte imbalance, Parkinson's disease, epilepsy, anemia of chronic disease, encephalitis, psychophysical visual disturbances, and aseptic necrosis of bone in the UK Biobank. There were positive associations with impetigo, vascular dementia, bipolar disorders, hypercholesterolemia, vertigo, and neurological diseases, and negative correlations with degenerative macular diseases, metatarsalgia, interstitial lung disease, and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, and others. in the FinnGen population. The electrolyte imbalance and anemia of chronic disease in UK Biobank and hypercholesterolemia and neurological diseases in FinnGen pass the FDR corrections. Neurological diseases and bipolar disorders also presented positive genetic correlations with CRP. We found no overlapping causal associations between the populations. Previous causal evidence also failed to support these associations (except for bipolar disorders).

Conclusions

Genetically determined CRP was robustly associated with several diseases in the UK Biobank and the FinnGen population, but could not be replicated, suggesting heterogeneous and non-repeatable effects of CRP across populations. This implies that interventions at CRP are unlikely to result in decreased risk for most human diseases in the general population but may benefit specific high-risk populations. The limited causal evidence and potential double-sided effects remind us to be cautious about CRP interventions.

A Nomogram Combining a Four-Gene Biomarker and Clinical Factors for Predicting Survival of Melanoma

Background

Currently there is no effective prognostic indicator for melanoma, the deadliest skin cancer. Thus, we aimed to develop and validate a nomogram predictive model for predicting survival of melanoma.

Methods

Four hundred forty-nine melanoma cases with RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) data from TCGA were randomly divided into the training set I (n = 224) and validation set I (n = 225), 210 melanoma cases with RNA-seq data from Lund cohort of Lund University (available in GSE65904) were used as an external test set. The prognostic gene biomarker was developed and validated based on the above three sets. The developed gene biomarker combined with clinical characteristics was used as variables to develop and validate a nomogram predictive model based on 379 patients with complete clinical data from TCGA (Among 470 cases, 91 cases with missing clinical data were excluded from the study), which were randomly divided into the training set II (n = 189) and validation set II (n = 190). Area under the curve (AUC), concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, and Kaplan-Meier estimate were used to assess predictive performance of the nomogram model.

Results

Four genes, i.e., CLEC7A, CLEC10A, HAPLN3, and HCP5 comprise an immune-related prognostic biomarker. The predictive performance of the biomarker was validated using tROC and log-rank test in the training set I (n = 224, 5-year AUC of 0.683), validation set I (n = 225, 5-year AUC of 0.644), and test set I (n = 210, 5-year AUC of 0.645). The biomarker was also significantly associated with improved survival in the training set (P < 0.01), validation set (P < 0.05), and test set (P < 0.001), respectively. In addition, a nomogram combing the four-gene biomarker and six clinical factors for predicting survival in melanoma was developed in the training set II (n = 189), and validated in the validation set II (n = 190), with a concordance index of 0.736 ± 0.041 and an AUC of 0.832 ± 0.071.

Conclusion

We developed and validated a nomogram predictive model combining a four-gene biomarker and six clinical factors for melanoma patients, which could facilitate risk stratification and treatment planning.