Lung Metastases in Newly Diagnosed Esophageal Cancer: A Population-Based Study

Comparing the prognosis of esophageal adenocarcinoma with bone and liver metastases: A competing risk analysis

BACKGROUND

About half of the patients with esophageal cancer are presenting with metastasis at initial diagnosis. However, few studies have concerned on the prognostic factors of metastatic esophageal adenocarcinoma (mEAC). This research aimed to investigate the effects of single bone metastasis (BM) and single liver metastasis (LM) on prognosis of mEAC patients.

METHODS

Data were obtained from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program database. We compared the effects of LM and BM on overall survival (OS), EAC-specific survival (CSS), and EAC-specific death (EASD) by multivariate Cox regression, Kaplan-Meier analysis, and competing risk regression models.

RESULTS

A total of 1,278 EAC patients were recruited in this study. Of which 78.95% (1009/1278) were EASD, and 12.68% (162/1278) were non-EAC-specific death (non-EASD). In multivariate Cox regression analysis, surgery, chemotherapy, and AJCC.T2 (vs. T1) were identified as protective factors for OS&CSS, while divorced/separated, single/unmarried (vs. married), grade III-IV (vs. grade I-II) and BM (vs. LM) were identified as risk factors. Competing risk regression analysis further confirmed that surgery and chemotherapy were beneficial to the patients with mEAC, and BM (vs. LM) was a risk factor for mEAC patients when considering the existence of the competitive risk events.

CONCLUSION

Our study indicated that mEAC patients with BM face a worse prognosis compared to those with LM. Additionally, surgery and chemotherapy emerge as protective factors for mEAC patients. These findings offer evidence-based insights for clinical management and contribute to the field.

Use machine learning to predict pulmonary metastasis of esophageal cancer: a population-based study

BACKGROUND

This study aims to establish a predictive model for assessing the risk of esophageal cancer lung metastasis using machine learning techniques.

METHODS

Data on esophageal cancer patients from 2010 to 2020 were extracted from the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results (SEER) database. Through univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses, eight indicators related to the risk of lung metastasis were selected. These indicators were incorporated into six machine learning classifiers to develop corresponding predictive models. The performance of these models was evaluated and compared using metrics such as The area under curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and F1 score.

RESULTS

A total of 20,249 confirmed cases of esophageal cancer were included in this study. Among them, 14,174 cases (70%) were assigned to the training set while 6075 cases (30%) constituted the internal test set. Primary site location, tumor histology, tumor grade classification system T staging criteria N staging criteria brain metastasis bone metastasis liver metastasis emerged as independent risk factors for esophageal cancer with lung metastasis. Amongst the six constructed models, the GBM algorithm-based machine learning model demonstrated superior performance during internal dataset validation. AUC, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity values achieved by this model stood at respectively at 0.803, 0.849, 0.604, and 0.867.

CONCLUSION

We have developed an online calculator based on the GBM model ( https://lvgrkyxcgdvo7ugoyxyywe.streamlit.app/)to aid clinical decision-making and treatment planning.

Prediction of hepatic metastasis in esophageal cancer based on machine learning

This study aimed to establish a machine learning (ML) model for predicting hepatic metastasis in esophageal cancer. We retrospectively analyzed patients with esophageal cancer recorded in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 2010 to 2020. We identified 11 indicators associated with the risk of liver metastasis through univariate and multivariate logistic regression. Subsequently, these indicators were incorporated into six ML classifiers to build corresponding predictive models. The performance of these models was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. A total of 17,800 patients diagnosed with esophageal cancer were included in this study. Age, primary site, histology, tumor grade, T stage, N stage, surgical intervention, radiotherapy, chemotherapy, bone metastasis, and lung metastasis were independent risk factors for hepatic metastasis in esophageal cancer patients. Among the six models developed, the ML model constructed using the GBM algorithm exhibited the highest performance during internal validation of the dataset, with AUC, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of 0.885, 0.868, 0.667, and 0.888, respectively. Based on the GBM algorithm, we developed an accessible web-based prediction tool (accessible at https://project2-dngisws9d7xkygjcvnue8u.streamlit.app/ ) for predicting the risk of hepatic metastasis in esophageal cancer.

Nomograms for Predicting Risk and Survival of Esophageal Cancer Lung Metastases: a SEER Analysis

Background: The overall survival rate is notably low for esophageal cancer patients with lung metastases (LM), presenting significant challenges in their treatment. Methods: Through the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program, individuals diagnosed with esophageal cancer between 2010 and 2015 were enrolled. Based on whether esophageal cancer metastasized to the lungs, we used propensity score matching (PSM) to balance correlated variables. Propensity score matching was a critical step in our study that helped to minimize the impact of possible confounders on the study results. We balanced variables related to lung metastases using the PSM method to ensure more accurate comparisons between the study and control groups. Specifically, we performed PSM in the following steps. First, we performed a univariate logistic regression analysis to screen for variables associated with lung metastasis. For each patient, we calculated their propensity scores using a logistic regression model, taking into account several factors, including gender, T-stage, N-stage, surgical history, radiotherapy history, chemotherapy history, and bone/brain/liver metastases. We used a 1:1 matching ratio based on the propensity score to ensure more balanced baseline characteristics between the study and control groups after matching. After matching, we validated the balance of baseline characteristics to ensure that the effect of confounders was minimized. We used logistic regression to identify risk variables for LM, while Cox regression was used to find independent prognostic factors. We then created nomograms and assessed their accuracy using the calibration curve, receiver operating curves (ROC), and C index. Results: In the post-PSM cohort, individuals diagnosed with LM experienced a median overall survival (OS) of 5.0 months (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.3-5.7), which was significantly lower than those without LM (P<0.001). LM has been associated to sex, T stage, N stage, surgery, radiation, chemotherapy, and bone/brain/liver metastases. LM survival was affected by radiation, chemotherapy, and bone/liver metastases. The nomograms' predictive power was proved using the ROC curve, C-index, and validation curve. Conclusion: Patients with LM have a worse chance of surviving esophageal cancer. The nomograms can effectively predict the risk and prognosis of lung metastases from esophageal cancer.

Atypical Presentation of Metastatic Carcinoma Causing Patellar Destruction and Synovial Carcinomatosis: A Case Report

Introduction

This case report describes the third documented example of primary esophageal carcinoma metastasizing to the patella and the first documented example of esophageal carcinoma metastasizing to synovium.

Case Report

A 67-year-old man with a history of metastatic esophageal carcinoma presents with right knee pain and an aggressive, destructive lesion involving the superior patella. Biopsy revealed esophageal carcinoma. After ineffective radiation, he underwent resection of the tumor-filled bone and quadricep advancement. Two months later, a recurrent tumor involving the entire patella and significant knee synovitis was observed. He underwent a total patellectomy with a radical anterior synovectomy. Further assessment showed that the entire synovium was replaced with metastatic carcinoma.

Conclusion

This report describes an atypical presentation of metastasis with patella and synovium involvement.

A population-based investigation: How to identify high-risk T1-2N0 esophageal cancer patients?

Purpose

Newly diagnosed T1-2N0 esophageal cancer (EC) is generally deemed as early local disease, with distant metastases (DM) easily overlooked. This retrospective study aimed to describe the metastatic patterns, identify risk factors and established a risk prediction model for DM in T1-2N0 EC patients.

Methods

A total of 4623 T1-2N0 EC patients were identified in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database from 2004 to 2018. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for DM. A nomogram was developed for presentation of the final model.

Results

Of 4623 T1-2N0 patients, 4062 (87.9%) had M0 disease and 561 (12.1%) had M1 disease. The most common metastatic site was liver (n = 156, 47.3%), followed by lung (n = 89, 27.0%), bone (n = 70, 21.2%) and brain (n = 15, 4.5%). Variables independently associated with DM included age at diagnosis, gender, tumor grade, primary site, tumor size and T stage. A nomogram based on the variables had a good predictive accuracy (area under the curve: 0.750). Independent risk factors for bone metastases (BoM), brain metastases (BrM), liver metastases (LiM) and lung metastases (LuM) were identified, respectively.

Conclusions

We identified independent predictive factors for DM, as well as for BoM, BrM, LiM and LuM. Above all, a practical and convenient nomogram with a great accuracy to predict DM probability for T1-2N0 EC patients was established.

A nomogram model to individually predict prognosis for esophageal cancer with synchronous pulmonary metastasis

Background

Esophageal cancer (EC) is a life-threatening disease worldwide. The prognosis of EC patients with synchronous pulmonary metastasis (PM) is unfavorable, but few tools are available to predict the clinical outcomes and prognosis of these patients. This study aimed to construct a nomogram model for the prognosis of EC patients with synchronous PM.

Methods

From the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database, we selected 431 EC patients diagnosed with synchronous PM. These cases were randomized into a training cohort (303 patients) and a validation cohort (128 patients). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses, along with the Kaplan-Meier method, were used to estimate the prognosis and cancer-specific survival (CSS) among two cohorts. Relative factors of prognosis in the training cohort were selected to develop a nomogram model which was verified on both cohorts by plotting the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves as well as the calibration curves. A risk classification assessment was completed to evaluate the CSS of different groups using the Kaplan-Meier method.

Results

The nomogram model contained four risk factors, including T stage, bone metastasis, liver metastasis, and chemotherapy. The 6-, 12- and 18-month CSS were 55.1%, 26.7%, and 5.9% and the areas under the ROC curve (AUC) were 0.818, 0.781, and 0.762 in the training cohort. Likewise, the AUC values were 0.731, 0.764, and 0.746 in the validation cohort. The calibration curves showed excellent agreement both in the training and validation cohorts. There was a substantial difference in the CSS between the high-risk and low-risk groups (P<0.01).

Conclusion

The nomogram model serves as a predictive tool for EC patients with synchronous PM, which would be utilized to estimate the individualized CSS and guide therapeutic decisions.

Deep Learning for the Diagnosis of Esophageal Cancer in Endoscopic Images: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Esophageal cancer, one of the most common cancers with a poor prognosis, is the sixth leading cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide. Early and accurate diagnosis of esophageal cancer, thus, plays a vital role in choosing the appropriate treatment plan for patients and increasing their survival rate. However, an accurate diagnosis of esophageal cancer requires substantial expertise and experience. Nowadays, the deep learning (DL) model for the diagnosis of esophageal cancer has shown promising performance. Therefore, we conducted an updated meta-analysis to determine the diagnostic accuracy of the DL model for the diagnosis of esophageal cancer. A search of PubMed, EMBASE, Scopus, and Web of Science, between 1 January 2012 and 1 August 2022, was conducted to identify potential studies evaluating the diagnostic performance of the DL model for esophageal cancer using endoscopic images. The study was performed in accordance with PRISMA guidelines. Two reviewers independently assessed potential studies for inclusion and extracted data from retrieved studies. Methodological quality was assessed by using the QUADAS-2 guidelines. The pooled accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value, and the area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) were calculated using a random effect model. A total of 28 potential studies involving a total of 703,006 images were included. The pooled accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive value of DL for the diagnosis of esophageal cancer were 92.90%, 93.80%, 91.73%, 93.62%, and 91.97%, respectively. The pooled AUROC of DL for the diagnosis of esophageal cancer was 0.96. Furthermore, there was no publication bias among the studies. The findings of our study show that the DL model has great potential to accurately and quickly diagnose esophageal cancer. However, most studies developed their model using endoscopic data from the Asian population. Therefore, we recommend further validation through studies of other populations as well.

The risk and prognostic factors for liver metastases in esophageal cancer patients: A large-cohort based study

BACKGROUND

This retrospective study aimed to explore risk factors for liver metastases (LiM) in patients with esophageal cancer (EC) and to identify prognostic factors in patients initially diagnosed with LiM.

METHODS

A total of 28 654 EC patients were retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database from 2010 to 2018. A multivariate logistic regression model was utilized to identify risk factors for LiM. A Cox regression model was used to identify prognostic factors for patients with LiM.

RESULTS

Of 28 654 EC patients, 4062 (14.2%) had LiM at diagnosis. The median overall survival (OS) for patients with and without LiM was 6.00 (95% CI: 5.70-6.30) months and 15.00 (95% CI: 14.64-15.36) months, respectively. Variables significantly associated with LiM included gender, age, tumor site, histology, tumor grade, tumor size, clinical T stage, clinical N stage, bone metastases (BoM), brain metastases (BrM) and lung metastases (LuM). Variables independently predicting survival for EC patients with LiM were age, histology, tumor grade, BoM, BrM, LuM, and chemotherapy. A risk prediction model and two survival prediction models were then constructed revealing satisfactory predictive accuracy.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on the largest known cohort of EC, independent predictors of LiM and prognostic indicators of survival for patients with LiM were identified. Two models for predicting survival as well as a risk prediction model were developed with robust predictive accuracy.

Clinical Features of Recurrence Pattern with Lung Metastasis After Radical Esophagectomy for Thoracic Esophageal Cancer

BACKGROUND

One of the difficulties in the treatment of esophageal cancer surgery is the high rate of postoperative recurrence. After esophagectomy, distant metastatic recurrence frequently occurs in the lung. This study aimed to determine the clinical features of a recurrence pattern with lung metastasis.

METHODS

The current study analyzed data from 138 patients who had postoperative recurrence of esophageal cancer after a radical esophagectomy. According to the recurrence pattern at the time of initial diagnosis, the patients were classified into two groups as follows: those with lung metastasis and those without.

RESULTS

Twenty-three of the 138 investigated patients had a recurrence pattern with lung metastasis. Salvage surgery and postoperative pneumonia (p = 0.041 and 0.030, respectively) were identified as risk factors for recurrence pattern with lung metastasis in multivariate analysis. When we compared the sites of primary esophageal tumors, we found that the frequencies of distant metastases, such as lung and liver metastases, as well as pleural/peritoneal dissemination, were higher in the mid and distal esophageal tumors. Patients with a recurrence pattern showing lung metastasis alone had a better overall and post-recurrence survival than those with other recurrence patterns (p < 0.001 and p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients who had postoperative recurrence after esophagectomy for thoracic esophageal cancer, salvage surgery, and postoperative pneumonia were significantly related to recurrence pattern with lung metastasis. Postoperative recurrence with lung metastasis alone had a better prognosis than other recurrence patterns; therefore, when pulmonary recurrence is suspected, performing intensive examinations for early diagnosis is critical.

Two Novel Nomograms Predicting the Risk and Prognosis of Pancreatic Cancer Patients With Lung Metastases: A Population-Based Study

Background

Pancreatic cancer (PC) is one of the most common malignant types of cancer, with the lung being the frequent distant metastatic site. Currently, no population-based studies have been done on the risk and prognosis of pancreatic cancer with lung metastases (PCLM). As a result, we intend to create two novel nomograms to predict the risk and prognosis of PCLM.

Methods

PC patients were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER) database from 2010 to 2016. A multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify risk factors for PCLM at the time of diagnosis. The multivariate Cox regression analysis was carried out to assess PCLM patient's prognostic factors for overall survival (OS). Following that, we used area under curve (AUC), time-dependent receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves, calibration plots, consistency index (C-index), time-dependent C-index, and decision curve analysis (DCA) to evaluate the effectiveness and accuracy of the two nomograms. Finally, we compared differences in survival outcomes using Kaplan-Meier curves.

Results

A total of 803 (4.22%) out of 19,067 pathologically diagnosed PC patients with complete baseline information screened from SEER database had pulmonary metastasis at diagnosis. A multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that age, histological subtype, primary site, N staging, surgery, radiotherapy, tumor size, bone metastasis, brain metastasis, and liver metastasis were risk factors for the occurrence of PCLM. According to multivariate Cox regression analysis, age, grade, tumor size, histological subtype, surgery, chemotherapy, liver metastasis, and bone metastasis were independent prognostic factors for PCLM patients' OS. Nomograms were constructed based on these factors to predict 6-, 12-, and 18-months OS of patients with PCLM. AUC, C-index, calibration curves, and DCA revealed that the two novel nomograms had good predictive power.

Conclusion

We developed two reliable predictive models for clinical practice to assist clinicians in developing individualized treatment plans for patients.

Risk Factors, Prognostic Factors, and Nomograms for Bone Metastasis in Patients with Newly Diagnosed Clear Cell Renal Cell Carcinoma: A Large Population-Based Study

Background

This study aimed to investigate risk factors and prognostic factors in patients with clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC) with bone metastasis (BM) and establish nomograms to provide a quantitative prediction of the risk of BM and survival probability.

Methods

The clinicopathological characteristics of patients with ccRCC between January 2010 and December 2015 were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. Independent factors for BM in ccRCC patients were identified using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Prognostic factors for predicting cancer-specific death were evaluated using univariate and multivariate analyses based on a competing risk regression model. We then constructed a diagnostic nomogram and a prognostic nomogram. The two nomograms were evaluated using calibration curves, receiver operating characteristic curves, and decision curve analysis.

Results

Our study included 34,659 patients diagnosed with ccRCC in the SEER database, with 1,415 patients who presented with bone metastasis. Risk factors for BM in patients with ccRCC included age, stage T, stage N, brain metastasis, liver metastasis, lung metastasis, tumor size, and laterality. Independent prognostic factors for patients with ccRCC patients with BM were Fuhrman grade, tumor size, T stage, N stage, brain metastases, lung metastasis, and surgery. For the diagnostic nomogram, the area under the curve values in the training and testing cohorts were 0.863 (95% CI, 0.851–0.875) and 0.859 (95% CI, 0.839–0.878), respectively. In the prognostic cohort, the area under the curve values for 1-, 2-, and 3-year cancer-specific survival rates in the training cohort were 0.747, 0.774, and 0.780, respectively, and 0.671, 0.706, and 0.696, respectively, in the testing cohort. Through calibration curves and decision curve analyses, the nomograms displayed excellent performance.

Conclusions

Several factors related to the development and prognosis of BM in patients with ccRCC were identified. The nomograms constructed in this study are expected to become effective and precise tools for clinicians to improve cancer management.

Models for Predicting Early Death in Patients With Stage IV Esophageal Cancer: A Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Based Cohort Study

Background

Despite enormous progress in the stage IV esophageal cancer (EC) treatment, some patients experience early death after diagnosis. This study aimed to identify the early death risk factors and construct models for predicting early death in stage IV EC patients.

Methods

Stage IV EC patients diagnosed between 2010 and 2015 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were selected. Early death was defined as death within 3 months of diagnosis, with or without therapy. Early death risk factors were identified using logistic regression analyses and further used to construct predictive models. The concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, and decision curve analyses (DCA) were used to assess model performance.

Results

Out of 4411 patients enrolled, 1779 died within 3 months. Histologic grade, therapy, the status of the bone, liver, brain and lung metastasis, marriage, and insurance were independent factors for early death in stage IV EC patients. Histologic grade and the status of the bone and liver metastases were independent factors for early death in both chemoradiotherapy and untreated groups. Based on these variables, predictive models were constructed. The C-index was .613 (95% confidence interval (CI), [.573–.653]) and .635 (95% CI, [.596–.674]) in the chemoradiotherapy and untreated groups, respectively, while calibration curves and DCA showed moderate performance.

Conclusions

More than 40% of stage IV EC patients suffered from an early death. The models could help clinicians discriminate between low and high risks of early death and strategize individually-tailed therapeutic interventions in stage IV EC patients.

ECM Remodeling in Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Aerodigestive Tract: Pathways for Cancer Dissemination and Emerging Biomarkers

Squamous cell carcinomas (SCC) include a number of different types of tumors developing in the skin, in hollow organs, as well as the upper aerodigestive tract (UADT) including the head and neck region and the esophagus which will be dealt with in this review. These tumors are often refractory to current therapeutic approaches with poor patient outcome. The most important prognostic determinant of SCC tumors is the presence of distant metastasis, significantly correlating with low patient survival rates. Rapidly emerging evidence indicate that the extracellular matrix (ECM) composition and remodeling profoundly affect SSC metastatic dissemination. In this review, we will summarize the current knowledge on the role of ECM and its remodeling enzymes in affecting the growth and dissemination of UADT SCC. Taken together, these published evidence suggest that a thorough analysis of the ECM composition in the UADT SCC microenvironment may help disclosing the mechanism of resistance to the treatments and help defining possible targets for clinical intervention.

ECM Remodeling in Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Aerodigestive Tract: Pathways for Cancer Dissemination and Emerging Biomarkers

Simple Summary

Local and distant metastasis of patients affected by squamous cell carcinoma of the upper aerodigestive tract predicts poor prognosis. In the latest years, the introduction of new therapeutic approaches, including targeted and immune therapies, has improved the overall survival. However, a large number of these patients do not benefit from these treatments. Thus, the identification of suitable prognostic and predictive biomarkers, as well as the discovery of new therapeutic targets have emerged as a crucial clinical need. In this context, the extracellular matrix represents a suitable target for the development of such therapeutic tools. In fact, the extracellular matrix is composed by complex molecules able to interact with a plethora of receptors and growth factors, thus modulating the dynamic crosstalk between cancer cells and the tumor microenvironment. In this review, we summarize the current knowledge of the role of the extracellular matrix in affecting squamous cell carcinoma growth and dissemination. Despite extracellular matrix is known to affect the development of many cancer types, only a restricted number of these molecules have been recognized to impact on squamous cell carcinoma progression. Thus, we consider that a thorough analysis of these molecules may be key to develop new potential therapeutic targets/biomarkers.

Abstract

Squamous cell carcinomas (SCC) include a number of different types of tumors developing in the skin, in hollow organs, as well as the upper aerodigestive tract (UADT) including the head and neck region and the esophagus which will be dealt with in this review. These tumors are often refractory to current therapeutic approaches with poor patient outcome. The most important prognostic determinant of SCC tumors is the presence of distant metastasis, significantly correlating with low patient survival rates. Rapidly emerging evidence indicate that the extracellular matrix (ECM) composition and remodeling profoundly affect SSC metastatic dissemination. In this review, we will summarize the current knowledge on the role of ECM and its remodeling enzymes in affecting the growth and dissemination of UADT SCC. Taken together, these published evidence suggest that a thorough analysis of the ECM composition in the UADT SCC microenvironment may help disclosing the mechanism of resistance to the treatments and help defining possible targets for clinical intervention.