A Model Combining Skeletal Muscle Mass and a Hematological Biomarker to Predict Survival in Patients With Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Undergoing Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy

Impact of magnetic resonance imaging-derived skeletal muscle index in locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma

PURPOSE

To evaluate the clinical implication of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-derived skeletal muscle index (SMI) in locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (LANPC) patients undergoing induction chemotherapy (IC) followed by concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) and further to develop a nomogram for predicting survival prognosis.

METHODS

SMI was determined through baseline MRI at the third cervical level. The nomogram was based on a training cohort involving 409 LANPC patients. We validated the prognostic accuracy of this prognostic model in an internal validation cohort (n = 204) and an external independent cohort (n = 272).

RESULTS

SMI was an independent risk factor for OS. A prognostic model comprising age, TNM stage and SMI for individual survival prediction was developed and graphically represented as a nomogram. The model showed favorable discrimination (C-index: 0.686), predictive accuracy [time dependent area under the curve (tAUC) at 5 years: 0.70], and calibration, and was further validated in the internal and external validation datasets. A risk stratification derived from the model stratified these patients into three prognostic subgroups with significantly different survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Low SMI accessed by MRI was significantly associated with poor overall survival in LANPC patients undergoing IC + CCRT. Moreover, we established and validated a novel nomogram involving age, TNM stage and SMI that could provide accurate prognostic stratification among this population.

Regional lymph node density-based nomogram predicts prognosis in nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients without distant metastases

BACKGROUND

Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is a relatively common type of cancer in Southern China, with local recurrence or distant metastases even after radical treatment; consequently, it is critical to identify the patients at higher risk for these events beforehand. This study aimed to assess the prognostic value of regional lymph node density (RLND) associated nomograms in NPC and to evaluate the utility of nomograms in risk stratification.

METHODS

A total of 610 NPC patients without distant metastases (425 in the training and 185 in the validation cohort) were enrolled. The MRI-identified nodal features and clinical characteristics were documented, and the RLND was calculated. Cox analyses were conducted to identify prognostic-associated factors. Nomograms were generated based on the multivariate analysis results. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram models were determined using the concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and calibration curve; the results were compared with those of the tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) classification. Decision curve analysis (DCA) and C-index were used to assess the prognostic effect and added discriminative ability of RLND. We also estimated the optimal RLND-based nomogram score cut-off values for survival prediction.

RESULTS

RLND was an independent predictor of overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS), with hazard ratios of 1.36 and 1.30, respectively. RLND was utilized in the construction of nomograms, alongside other independent prognostic factors. The RLND-based nomogram models presented a more effective discriminative ability than the TNM classification for predicting OS (C-index, 0.711 vs. 0.680) and DFS (C-index, 0.681 vs. 0.669), with favorable calibration and consistency. The comparison of C-index values between the nomogram models with and without RLND provided substantiation of the crucial role RLND plays in these models. DCA confirmed the satisfactory clinical practicability of RLND. Moreover, the nomograms were used to categorize the patients into three groups (high-, middle-, and low-risk), and the Kaplan-Meier curves showed significant differences in prognosis between them (p < 0.05). These results were verified in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSION

RLND stands as a robust prognostic factor in NPC. The RLND-based nomograms excel in predicting survival, surpassing the TNM classification.