Development and Validation of Prognostic Nomograms Based on Gross Tumor Volume and Cervical Nodal Volume for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Patients With Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy

Optimized Nomogram for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Prognosis Prediction in Younger Patients (Aged 18-59): Development and Validation

PURPOSE

To develop a nomogram model for the predicted overall survival (OS) in patients aged 18 to 59 years with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) and assess the value of the clinical application.

METHODS

In total, 1334 registers of NPC patients from 2010 to 2015 were retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Univariate and multivariate Cox analysis were used to screen out independent risk factors affecting patients. Cox analysis predicted OS for patients with NPC at 3, 5, and 8 years. Nomogram performance was validated using the concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

Age, sex, race, marital, histological type, tumor size, AJCC stage, and radiotherapy were independent risk factors. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.69 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.68-0.71] for the training set, and the C-index of the AJCC stage was 0.63 (95% CI: 0.62-0.65), both statistically significant (P < .01). The area under the curve for the nomogram at these intervals (0.755, 0.729, and 0.729, respectively) was higher than that of the AJCC stage (0.667, 0.646, and 0.646, respectively), indicating better predictive accuracy. The calibration curves revealed a high degree of agreement between the observation and the prediction. Compared to the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage, DCA showed better clinical utility.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram as novel predictor for nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients' survival.

Tumor volume reduction after induction chemotherapy with gemcitabine plus cisplatin in nasopharyngeal carcinoma

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the tumor volume reduction after induction chemotherapy (IC) with gemcitabine plus cisplatin (GP) and to build prediction models for tumor volume reduction in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC).

METHODS

NPC patients who received GP IC were retrospectively enrolled. The gross tumor volume of the nasopharynx and lymph nodes (GTVnx and GTVnd) were contoured before and after IC. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify associated factors. Nomogram models were constructed to predict the possibility of tumor volume reduction.

RESULTS

A total of 192 patients were enrolled. The mean relative volume reduction for GTVnx and GTVnd was 29.66% and 31.75%, respectively. The volume reduction of GTVnx and GTVnd had a weak association (r = 0.229, p < 0.001). For GTVnx volume reduction, pre-treatment neutrophil count (p = 0.043), lymphocyte count (p = 0.026), LDH level (p = 0.005), and BMI (p = 0.020) were independently associated factors. For GTVnd volume reduction, pre-treatment EBV-DNA (p = 0.029), GTVnd volume (p < 0.001), eosinophil count (p = 0.043), NLR (p = 0.039), LDH level (p = 0.026), and serum potassium level (p = 0.027) were independently associated factors. For the GTVnx nomogram model, areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) were 0.702 and 0.698 for the training and validation cohorts, respectively. For the GTVnd nomogram model, the AUC was 0.872 and 0.758 for the training and validation cohorts, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Tumor volumes reduce significantly after GP induction chemotherapy. Nomogram models for predicting the possibility of tumor volume reduction are built.

Reflecting on the utility of standardized uptake values on 18F-FDG PET in nasopharyngeal carcinoma

Background

To rethink the clinical significance of standardized uptake values (SUVs) of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) on ¹⁸F-fluorodeoxyglucose (¹⁸F-FDG) positron-emission tomography (PET).

Methods

We retrospectively reviewed 369 NPC patients who underwent pretreatment ¹⁸F-FDG PET. The predictive value of the SUVmax of the primary tumor (SUVmax-t) and regional lymph nodes (SUVmax-n) was evaluated using probability density functions. Receiver operating characteristic curves were used to determine optimal cutoffs for the SUVmax-n/SUVmax-t ratio (NTR). Kaplan–Meier and Cox regression analyses were used to assess survival.

Results

The optimal SUVmax-t and SUVmax-n cutoffs were 7.5 and 6.9, respectively. High SUVmax-t and SUVmax-n were related to local and regional recurrence, respectively. Patients with low SUVmax had better 3-year overall survival (OS). To avoid cross-sensitization of cutoff points, we stratified patients with high SUVmax into the low and high NTR groups. The 3-year distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS; 92.3 vs. 80.6%, P = 0.009), progression-free survival (PFS; 84.0 vs. 67.7%, P = 0.011), and OS (95.9 vs. 89.2%, P = 0.002) significantly differed between the high vs. low NTR groups for patients with high SUVmax. Multivariable analysis showed that NTR was an independent prognostic factor for DMFS (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.037, 95% CI: 1.039–3.992, P = 0.038), PFS (HR: 1.636, 95% CI: 1.021–2.621, P = 0.041), and OS (HR: 2.543, 95% CI: 1.214–5.325, P = 0.013).

Conclusion

High SUVmax was associated with NPC recurrence. NTR is a potential prognosticator for DMFS, suggesting that heterogeneity in the pretreatment ¹⁸F-FDG uptake between the primary tumor and lymph nodes is associated with high invasion and metastatic potential.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-022-09626-w.