A Machine Learning-Modified Novel Nomogram to Predict Perioperative Blood Transfusion of Total Gastrectomy for Gastric Cancer

Naïve Bayes is an interpretable and predictive machine learning algorithm in predicting osteoporotic hip fracture in-hospital mortality compared to other machine learning algorithms

Osteoporotic hip fractures (HFs) in the elderly are a pertinent issue in healthcare, particularly in developed countries such as Australia. Estimating prognosis following admission remains a key challenge. Current predictive tools require numerous patient input features including those unavailable early in admission. Moreover, attempts to explain machine learning [ML]-based predictions are lacking. Seven ML prognostication models were developed to predict in-hospital mortality following minimal trauma HF in those aged ≥ 65 years of age, requiring only sociodemographic and comorbidity data as input. Hyperparameter tuning was performed via fractional factorial design of experiments combined with grid search; models were evaluated with 5-fold cross-validation and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). For explainability, ML models were directly interpreted as well as analysed with SHAP values. Top performing models were random forests, naïve Bayes [NB], extreme gradient boosting, and logistic regression (AUROCs ranging 0.682-0.696, p>0.05). Interpretation of models found the most important features were chronic kidney disease, cardiovascular comorbidities and markers of bone metabolism; NB also offers direct intuitive interpretation. Overall, NB has much potential as an algorithm, due to its simplicity and interpretability whilst maintaining competitive predictive performance.

Predicting blood transfusion demand in intensive care patients after surgery by comparative analysis of temporally extended data selection

BACKGROUND

Blood transfusion (BT) is a critical aspect of medical care for surgical patients in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU). Timely and accurate identification of BT needs can enhance patient outcomes and healthcare resource management.

METHODS

This study aims to determine whether a machine learning (ML) model can be trained to predict the need for blood transfusion (BT) in patients on the ICU after a wide range of surgeries, utilizing only data from the ICU.

RESULTS

This retrospective study analyzed data from 9,118 surgical ICU patients from the Amsterdam University Medical Centers database (UMCdb). The study included a primary analysis using data from 6 h before ICU admission up to 1, 2, 3, and 6 h after admission, and a secondary analysis using only the data from 6 h before ICU admission and only the data from the first hour after admission. The model integrated 32 relevant clinical variables and compared the performance of XGBoost and logistic regression (LR) algorithms.

CONCLUSIONS

The model demonstrated an effective BT prediction, with XGBoost outperforming LR, particularly for a 12-hour prediction window. Notable differences in patient characteristics were observed among those who received BT and those who did not receive BT. The study establishes the feasibility of using ML for the prediction of BT in surgical ICU patients. It underlines the potential of ML models as decision support tools in healthcare, enabling early identification of BT needs.

Prediction of intraoperative red blood cell transfusion in valve replacement surgery: machine learning algorithm development based on non-anemic cohort

Background

Our study aimed to develop machine learning algorithms capable of predicting red blood cell (RBC) transfusion during valve replacement surgery based on a preoperative dataset of the non-anemic cohort.

Methods

A total of 423 patients who underwent valvular replacement surgery from January 2015 to December 2020 were enrolled. A comprehensive database that incorporated demographic characteristics, clinical conditions, and results of preoperative biochemistry tests was used for establishing the models. A range of machine learning algorithms were employed, including decision tree, random forest, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), categorical boosting (CatBoost), support vector classifier and logistic regression (LR). Subsequently, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), accuracy, recall, precision, and F1 score were used to determine the predictive capability of the algorithms. Furthermore, we utilized SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) values to explain the optimal prediction model.

Results

The enrolled patients were randomly divided into training set and testing set according to the 8:2 ratio. There were 16 important features identified by Sequential Backward Selection for model establishment. The top 5 most influential features in the RF importance matrix plot were hematocrit, hemoglobin, ALT, fibrinogen, and ferritin. The optimal prediction model was CatBoost algorithm, exhibiting the highest AUC (0.752, 95% CI: 0.662-0.780), which also got relatively high F1 score (0.695). The CatBoost algorithm also showed superior performance over the LR model with the AUC (0.666, 95% CI: 0.534-0.697). The SHAP summary plot and the SHAP dependence plot were used to visually illustrate the positive or negative effects of the selected features attributed to the CatBoost model.

Conclusions

This study established a series of prediction models to enhance risk assessment of intraoperative RBC transfusion during valve replacement in no-anemic patients. The identified important predictors may provide effective preoperative interventions.