A LASSO-based model to predict central lymph node metastasis in preoperative patients with cN0 papillary thyroid cancer

Ultrasound radiomics signature for predicting central lymph node metastasis in clinically node-negative papillary thyroid microcarcinoma

BACKGROUND

Whether prophylactic central lymph node dissection is necessary for patients with clinically node-negative (cN0) papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) remains controversial. Herein, we aimed to establish an ultrasound (US) radiomics (Rad) score for assessing the probability of central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) in such patients.

METHODS

480 patients (327 in the training cohort, 153 in the validation cohort) who underwent thyroid surgery for cN0 PTMC at two institutions between January 2018 and December 2020 were included. Radiomics features were extracted from the US images. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator logistic regression were utilized to generate a Rad score. A nomogram consisting of the Rad score and clinical factors was then constructed for the training cohort. Both cohorts assessed model performance using discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness.

RESULTS

Based on the six most valuable radiomics features, the Rad score was calculated for each patient. A multivariate analysis revealed that a higher Rad score (P < 0.001), younger age (P = 0.006), and presence of capsule invasion (P = 0.030) were independently associated with CLNM. A nomogram integrating these three factors demonstrated good calibration and promising clinical utility in the training and validation cohorts. The nomogram yielded areas under the curve of 0.795 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.745-0.846) and 0.774 (95% CI, 0.696-0.852) in the training and validation cohorts, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The radiomics nomogram may be a clinically useful tool for the individual prediction of CLNM in patients with cN0 PTMC.

Gene mutations as predictors of central lymph mode metastasis in cN0 PTC: A meta-analysis

Gene mutations could predict the tumor progression and prognosis, which are us to predict CLNM in patients with cN0 PTC, however, these results are not consistent. This meta-analysis tried to identify gene mutations which could predict CLNM in patients with cN0 PTC. A systematic search was performed for identifying relevant literature published prior to July 2023 in three search engines: PubMed, EMBASE and Web of Science. Studies that investigated the gene mutations for CLNM in patients with cN0 PTC were included in our meta-analysis. Sixteen studies, including 6095 cN0 PTC with BRAF mutations were include in our meta-analysis. The prevalence of CLNM in cN0 PTC ranged from 13.7% to 50.6%. The pooled analysis demonstrated that BRAFV600E mutation is significantly associated with CLNM (OR = 2.01, 95% CI: 1.55-2.60, p < 0.001) in PTC and PTMC (OR = 1.70, 95% CI: 0.51-1.81, p < 0.001). Whereas, cN0 PTC with TERT (OR = 1.94, 95% CI: 0.51-7.36, p = 0.33) and KRAS (OR = 0.57, 95% CI: 0.51-1.81, p = 0.34) mutations might not contribute to predict CLNM. Our analysis identified that BRAF mutation was a predictive factor for cN0 PTC, as well as for cN0 PTMC, which could be useful for clinician to accurately choose prophylactic CLND and better manage cN0 PTC.

Risk factors for central lymph node metastasis in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma: a retrospective study

Introduction

Thyroid cancer is the most prevalent endocrine malignancy, with its global incidence increasing annually in recent years. Papillary carcinoma is the most common subtype, frequently accompanied by cervical lymph node metastasis early on. Central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) is particularly the common metastasis form in this subtype, and the presence of lymph node metastasis correlates strongly with tumor recurrence. However, effective preoperative assessment methods for CLNM in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) remain lacking.

Methods

Data from 400 patients diagnosed with PTC between January 1, 2018, and January 1, 2022, at the Shandong Provincial Hospital were retrospectively analyzed. This data included clinicopathological information of the patients, such as thyroid function, BRAF V600E mutation, whether complicated with Hashimoto's thyroiditis, and the presence of capsular invasion. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the risk factors associated with cervical CLNM in patients with PTC. Subsequently, a clinical prediction model was constructed, and prognostic risk factors were identified based on univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses.

Results

Univariate and multivariate analyses identified that age >45 years (P=0.014), body mass index ≥25 (P=0.008), tumor size ≥1 cm (P=0.001), capsular invasion (P=0.001), and the presence of BRAF V600E mutation (P<0.001) were significantly associated with an increased risk of CLNM. Integrating these factors into the nomogram revealed an area-under-the-curve of 0.791 (95% confidence interval 0.735-0.846) and 0.765 (95% confidence interval: 0.677-0.852) for the training and validation sets, respectively, indicating strong discriminative abilities. Subgroup analysis further confirmed that patients with papillary thyroid microcarcinoma and BRAF V600E mutations who underwent therapeutic central compartment neck dissection had significantly better 3-year disease-free survival than those who had prophylactic central compartment neck dissection (P<0.001).

Conclusion

The study revealed that age >45 years, body mass index ≥25, tumor size ≥1 cm, BRAF V600E mutation, and capsular invasion are the related risk factors for CLNM in patients with PTC. For patients with clinically nodal-negative (cN0) papillary thyroid microcarcinoma, accurately identifying the BRAF V600E mutation is essential for guiding the central lymph node dissection approach and subsequent treatments.

Role of prophylactic central neck lymph node dissection for papillary thyroid carcinoma in the era of de-escalation

Thyroid cancer is the most common endocrine malignancy. While there has been no appreciable increase in the observed mortality of well-differentiated thyroid cancer, there has been an overall rise in its incidence worldwide over the last few decades. Patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) and clinical evidence of central (cN1) and/or lateral lymph node metastases require total thyroidectomy plus central and/or lateral neck dissection as the initial surgical treatment. Nodal status in PTC patients plays a crucial role in the prognostic evaluation of the recurrence risk. The 2015 guidelines of the American Thyroid Association (ATA) have more accurately determined the indications for therapeutic central and lateral lymph node dissection. However, prophylactic central neck lymph node dissection (pCND) in negative lymph node (cN0) PTC patients is controversial, as the 2009 ATA guidelines recommended that CND "should be considered" routinely in patients who underwent total thyroidectomy for PTC. Although the current guidelines show clear indications for therapeutic CND, the role of pCND in cN0 patients with PTC is still debated. In small solitary papillary carcinoma (T1, T2), pCND is not recommended unless there are high-risk prediction factors for recurrence and diffuse nodal spread (extrathyroid extension, mutation in the BRAF gene). pCND can be considered in cN0 disease with advanced primary tumors (T3 or T4) or clinical lateral neck disease (cN1b) or for staging and treatment planning purposes. The role of the preoperative evaluation is fund-amental to minimizing the possible detrimental effect of overtreatment of the types of patients who are associated with low disease-related morbidity and mortality. On the other hand, it determines the choice of appropriate treatment and determines if close monitoring of patients at a higher risk is needed. Thus, pCND is currently recommended for T3 and T4 tumors but not for T1 and T2 tumors without high-risk prediction factors of recurrence.