Nomogram for predicting occurrence and prognosis of liver metastasis in elderly colorectal cancer patients: a population-based study

Rapid detection of liver metastasis risk in colorectal cancer patients through blood test indicators

Introduction

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the most common malignancies, with liver metastasis being its most common form of metastasis. The diagnosis of colorectal cancer liver metastasis (CRCLM) mainly relies on imaging techniques and puncture biopsy techniques, but there is no simple and quick early diagnosisof CRCLM.

Methods

This study aims to develop a method for rapidly detecting the risk of liver metastasis in CRC patients through blood test indicators based on machine learning (ML) techniques, thereby improving treatment outcomes. To achieve this, blood test indicators from 246 CRC patients and 256 CRCLM patients were collected and analyzed, including routine blood tests, liver function tests, electrolyte tests, renal function tests, glucose determination, cardiac enzyme profiles, blood lipids, and tumor markers. Six commonly used ML models were used for CRC and CRCLM classification and optimized by using a feature selection strategy.

Results

The results showed that AdaBoost algorithm can achieve the highest accuracy of 89.3% among the six models, which improved to 91.1% after feature selection strategy, resulting with 20 key markers.

Conclusions

The results demonstrate that the combination of machine learning techniques with blood markers is feasible and effective for the rapid diagnosis of CRCLM, significantly im-proving diagnostic ac-curacy and patient prognosis.

Identifying risk and prognostic factors for synchronous liver metastasis in small bowel adenocarcinoma: a predictive analysis using the SEER database

Background

Small bowel adenocarcinoma (SBA) is a rare gastrointestinal malignancy with an increasing incidence and a high propensity for liver metastasis (LM). This study aimed to investigate the risk factors for synchronous LM and prognostic factors in patients with LM.

Methods

Utilizing the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, this study analyzed data from 2,064 patients diagnosed with SBA between 2010 and 2020. Logistic regression was used to determine risk factors for synchronous LM. A nomogram was developed to predict the risk of LM in SBA patients, and its predictive performance was assessed through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration curves. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses were conducted to evaluate survival outcomes for SBA patients with LM.

Results

Synchronous LM was present in 13.4% of SBA patients (n = 276). Six independent predictive factors for LM were identified, including tumor location, T stage, N stage, surgical intervention, retrieval of regional lymph nodes (RORLN), and chemotherapy. The nomogram demonstrated good discriminative ability, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 83.8%. Patients with LM had significantly lower survival rates than those without LM (P < 0.001). Survival analysis revealed that advanced age, tumor location in the duodenum, surgery, RORLN and chemotherapy were associated with cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with LM originating from SBA.

Conclusions

This study highlights the significant impact of LM on the survival of SBA patients and identifies key risk factors for its occurrence. The developed nomogram aids in targeted screening and personalized treatment planning.