Considerations for Assessing the Appropriateness of High-Cost Pediatric Care in Low-Income Regions

Outcome in Children Admitted to the First PICU in Malawi

OBJECTIVES

Dedicated PICUs are slowly starting to emerge in sub-Saharan Africa. Establishing these units can be challenging as there is little data from this region to inform which populations and approaches should be prioritized. This study describes the characteristics and outcome of patients admitted to the first PICU in Malawi, with the aim to identify factors associated with increased mortality.

DESIGN

Review of a prospectively constructed PICU database. Univariate analysis was used to assess associations between demographic, clinical and laboratory factors, and mortality. Univariate associations ( p < 0.1) for mortality were entered in two multivariable models.

SETTING

A recently opened PICU in a public tertiary government hospital in Blantyre, Malawi.

PATIENTS

Children admitted to PICU between August 1, 2017, and July 31, 2019.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENT AND MAIN RESULTS

Of 531 included PICU admissions, 149 children died (28.1%). Mortality was higher in neonates (88/167; 52.7%) than older children (61/364; 16.8%; p ≤ 0.001). On univariate analysis, gastroschisis, trachea-esophageal fistula, and sepsis had higher PICU mortality, while Wilms tumor, other neoplasms, vocal cord papilloma, and foreign body aspiration had higher survival rates compared with other conditions. On multivariable analysis, neonatal age (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 4.0; 95% CI, 2.0-8.3), decreased mental state (AOR, 5.8; 95 CI, 2.4-13.8), post-cardiac arrest (AOR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.0-8.0), severe hypotension (AOR, 6.3; 95% CI, 2.0-19.1), lactate greater than 5 mmol/L (AOR, 4.2; 95% CI, 1.5-11.2), pH less than 7.2 (AOR, 3.1; 95% CI, 1.2-8.0), and platelets less than 150 × 10 9 /L (AOR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.1-5.2) were associated with increased mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

In the first PICU in Malawi, mortality was relatively high, especially in neonates. Surgical neonates and septic patients were identified as highly vulnerable, which stresses the importance of improvement of PICU care bundles for these groups. Several clinical and laboratory variables were associated with mortality in older children. In neonates, severe hypotension was the only clinical variable associated with increased mortality besides blood gas parameters. This stresses the importance of basic laboratory tests, especially in neonates. These data contribute to evidence-based approaches establishing and improving future PICUs in sub-Saharan Africa.

An Artificial Neural Network Model for Pediatric Mortality Prediction in Two Tertiary Pediatric Intensive Care Units in South Africa. A Development Study

OBJECTIVES

The performance of mortality prediction models remain a challenge in lower- and middle-income countries. We developed an artificial neural network (ANN) model for the prediction of mortality in two tertiary pediatric intensive care units (PICUs) in South Africa using free to download and use software and commercially available computers. These models were compared to a logistic regression model and a recalibrated version of the Pediatric Index of Mortality 3.

DESIGN

This study used data from a retrospective cohort study to develop an artificial neural model and logistic regression model for mortality prediction. The outcome evaluated was death in PICU.

SETTING

Two tertiary PICUs in South Africa.

PATIENTS

2,089 patients up to the age of 13 completed years were included in the study.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

The AUROC was higher for the ANN (0.89) than for the logistic regression model (LR) (0.87) and the recalibrated PIM3 model (0.86). The precision recall curve however favors the ANN over logistic regression and recalibrated PIM3 (AUPRC = 0.6 vs. 0.53 and 0.58, respectively. The slope of the calibration curve was 1.12 for the ANN model (intercept 0.01), 1.09 for the logistic regression model (intercept 0.05) and 1.02 (intercept 0.01) for the recalibrated version of PIM3. The calibration curve was however closer to the diagonal for the ANN model.

CONCLUSIONS

Artificial neural network models are a feasible method for mortality prediction in lower- and middle-income countries but significant challenges exist. There is a need to conduct research directed toward the acquisition of large, complex data sets, the integration of documented clinical care into clinical research and the promotion of the development of electronic health record systems in lower and middle income settings.

Pediatric Emergency and Critical Care Resources and Infrastructure in Resource-Limited Settings: A Multicountry Survey

OBJECTIVES

To describe the infrastructure and resources for pediatric emergency and critical care delivery in resource-limited settings worldwide.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional survey with survey items developed through literature review and revised following piloting.

SETTING

The electronic survey was disseminated internationally in November 2019 via e-mail directories of pediatric intensive care societies and networks and using social media.

PATIENTS

Healthcare providers who self-identified as working in resource-limited settings.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Results were summarized using descriptive statistics and resource availability was compared across World Bank country income groups. We received 328 responses (238 hospitals, 60 countries), predominantly in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa (n = 161, 67.4%). Hospitals were in low-income (28, 11.7%), middle-income (166, 69.5%), and high-income (44, 18.4%) countries. Across 174 PICU and adult ICU admitting children, there were statistically significant differences in the proportion of hospitals reporting consistent resource availability ("often" or "always") between country income groups (p < 0·05). Resources with limited availability in lower income countries included advanced ventilatory support, invasive and noninvasive monitoring, central venous access, renal replacement therapy, advanced imaging, microbiology, biochemistry, blood products, antibiotics, parenteral nutrition, and analgesic/sedative drugs. Seventy-seven ICUs (52.7%) were staffed 24/7 by a pediatric intensivist or anesthetist. The nurse-to-patient ratio was less than 1:2 in 71 ICUs (49.7%).

CONCLUSIONS

Contemporary data demonstrate significant disparity in the availability of essential and advanced human and material resources for the care of critically ill children in resource-limited settings. Minimum standards for essential pediatric emergency and critical care in resource-limited settings are needed.

Application of systems dynamics and group model building to identify barriers and facilitators to acute care delivery in a resource limited setting

Background

Group model building (GMB) is a method to facilitate shared understanding of structures and relationships that determine system behaviors. This project aimed to determine the feasibility of GMB in a resource-limited setting and to use GMB to describe key barriers and facilitators to effective acute care delivery at a tertiary care hospital in Malawi.

Methods

Over 1 week, trained facilitators led three GMB sessions with two groups of healthcare providers to facilitate shared understanding of structures and relationships that determine system behaviors. One group aimed to identify factors that impact patient flow in the paediatric special care ward. The other aimed to identify factors impacting delivery of high-quality care in the paediatric accident and emergency room. Synthesized causal maps of factors influencing patient care were generated, revised, and qualitatively analyzed.

Results

Causal maps identified patient condition as the central modifier of acute care delivery. Severe illness and high volume of patients were identified as creating system strain in several domains: (1) physical space, (2) resource needs and utilization, (3) staff capabilities and (4) quality improvement. Stress in these domains results in worsening patient condition and perpetuating negative reinforcing feedback loops. Balancing factors inherent to the current system included (1) parental engagement, (2) provider resilience, (3) ease of communication and (4) patient death. Perceived strengths of the GMB process were representation of diverse stakeholder viewpoints and complex system synthesis in a visual causal pathway, the process inclusivity, development of shared understanding, new idea generation and momentum building. Challenges identified included time required for completion and potential for participant selection bias.

Conclusions

GMB facilitated creation of a shared mental model, as a first step in optimizing acute care delivery in a paediatric facility in this resource-limited setting.

Serum Leptin in Hospitalized Community-Acquired Pneumonia Children under the Age of Five Years

Background

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) accounts for 19% of the world’s total deaths among all age groups yearly, with highest rates in children less than 5 years. This study is designed to evaluate the serum leptin level in hospitalized children under the age of 5 years with CAP.

Results

This prospective cross-sectional study included CAP children under the age of 5 years. Forty-one patients admitted to pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) and 41 patients admitted to general ward were enrolled. Patients with any other cause that may elevate serum leptin were excluded. Serum leptin was measured on the day of admission. The PICU patients had a significantly higher median serum leptin than that of the ward patients (p < 0.001). C-reactive protein (CRP) level was significantly higher in patients with elevated serum leptin than in patients with normal serum leptin (p = 0.001). There was a significant association between high serum leptin and positive sputum cultures (p < 0.001), particularly cultures growing more than one organism (p < 0.001). There was a positive, weak correlation between serum leptin and length of stay (r = 0.30, p = 0.007). Serum leptin showed good discrimination between PICU admissions and inpatient ward admissions (AUC = 0.777, p < 0.001); at a cut-off value of > 29.6 pg/ml, serum leptin had a sensitivity of 70.7% and a specificity of 87.8%

Conclusion

We may conclude that CAP patients with a serum leptin level above 29.6 pg/ml should be considered for PICU admission.

A public–private partnership for dialysis provision in Ethiopia: a model for high-cost care in low-resource settings

Our purpose was to explore whether private–public partnerships (PPPs) can serve as a model for access to high-cost care in low-resource settings by examining a unique PPP providing haemodialysis services in a remote setting, investigating challenges and enablers. The study setting is a 500-bed teaching hospital serving a catchment population of 8 million in Northern Ethiopia. Based on local data collection, observation and in-depth interviews, we identified the impetus for the PPP, described the partnership agreement, reported outcomes after 6 years of activity and examined challenges that have arisen since the programme’s inception, including funding sustainability. The PPP was established in 2013 based on a decision by local leadership that treatment of patients with acute kidney injury (AKI) is a necessity rather than a luxury. A private partner was sought who could ensure service delivery as well as a reliable supply of consumables. The hospital contributions included infrastructure, personnel and sharing of maintenance costs. The partnership has facilitated uninterrupted haemodialysis service to 101 patients with AKI and 202 with chronic kidney disease. The former (&gt;50% cured) were mainly supported by charitable donations procured by the hospital’s leadership, while the latter were self-funded. The local university and community contributed to the charity. Utilization has increased yearly. Funding and logistical issues remain. In conclusion, this PPP enabled access to previously unavailable lifesaving care in Northern Ethiopia and could serve as a model for potential scale-up for haemodialysis provision in particular, and more broadly, high-cost care in low-resource settings. An ethical commitment to provide the service, combined with ongoing administrative and community involvement has contributed to its sustained success. Lack of affordability for most patients requiring chronic haemodialysis and reliance on charitable donations for treatment of patients with AKI pose challenges to long-term sustainability.