Glycemic Variability: An Independent Predictor of Mortality and the Impact of Age in Pediatric Intensive Care Unit

Glycemic Variability Is Independently Associated With Poor Prognosis in Five Pediatric ICU Centers in Southwest China

Background

Glucose variability (GV) is a common complication of dysglycemia in critically ill patients. However, there are few studies on the role of GV in the prognosis of pediatric patients, and there is no consensus on the appropriate method for GV measurement. The objective of this study was to determine the “optimal” index of GV in non-diabetic critically ill children in a prospective multicenter cohort observational study. Also, we aimed to confirm the potential association between GV and unfavorable outcomes and whether this association persists after controlling for hypoglycemia or hyperglycemia.

Materials and Methods

Blood glucose values were recorded for the first 72 h and were used to calculate the GV for each participant. Four different metrics [SD, glycemic lability index (GLI), mean absolute glucose (MAG), and absolute change of percentage (ACACP)] were considered and compared to identify the “best” GV index associated with poor prognosis in non-diabetic critically ill children. Among the four metrics, the SD was most commonly used in previous studies, while GLI- and MAG-integrated temporal information, that is the rate and magnitude of change and the time interval between glucose measurements. The fourth metric, the average consecutive ACACP, was introduced in our study, which can be used in real-time clinical decisions. The primary outcome of this study was the 28-day mortality. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was conducted to compare the predictive power of different metrics of GV for the primary outcome. The GV index with the largest area under ROC curve (AUC) was chosen for subsequent multivariate analyses. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed to identify the potential predictors of the outcome. To compare the contribution in 28-day mortality prognosis between glycemic variability and hyper- or hypoglycemia, performance metrics were calculated, which included AUC, net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI).

Results

Among 780 participants, 12.4% (n = 97) died within 28 days after admission to the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU). Statistically significant differences were found between survivors and non-survivors in terms of four GV metrics (SD, GLI, MAG, and ACACP), in which MAG (AUC: 0.762, 95% CI: 0.705–0.819, p < 0.001) achieved the largest AUC and showed a strong independent association with ICU mortality. Subsequent addition of MAG to the multivariate Cox model for hyperglycemia resulted in further quantitative evolution of the model statistics (AUC = 0.651–0.681, p = 0.001; IDI: 0.017, p = 0.044; NRI: 0.224, p = 0.186). The impact of hyperglycemia (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 1.419, 95% CI: 0.815–2.471, p = 0.216) on outcome was attenuated and no longer statistically relevant after adjustment for MAG (aHR: 2.455, 95% CI: 1.411–4.270, p = 0.001).

Conclusions

GV is strongly associated with poor prognosis independent of mean glucose level, demonstrating more predictive power compared with hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia after adjusting for confounding factors. GV metrics that contain information, such as time and rate of change, are the focus of future research; thus, the MAG may be a good choice. The findings of this study emphasize the crucial role of GVs in children in the PICU. Clinicians should pay more attention to GV for clinical glucose management.

Analysis of risk factors for the failure of respiratory support with high-flow nasal cannula oxygen therapy in children with acute respiratory dysfunction: A case-control study

BACKGROUND

Evidence-based clinical practice guidelines regarding high-flow nasal cannula (HFNC) use for respiratory support in critically ill children are lacking. Therefore, we aimed to determine the risk factors for early HFNC failure to reduce the failure rate and prevent adverse consequences of HFNC failure in children with acute respiratory dysfunction.

METHODS

Demographic and laboratory data were compared among patients, admitted to the pediatric intensive care unit between January 2017 and December 2018, who were included in a retrospective cohort study. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to determine risk factors for eventual entry into the predictive model for early HFNC failure and to perform an external validation study in a prospective observational cohort study from January to February 2019. Further, the association of clinical indices and trends pre- and post-treatment with HFNC treatment success or failure in these patients was dynamically observed.

RESULTS

In total, 348 pediatric patients were included, of these 282 (81.0%) were included in the retrospective cohort study; HFNC success was observed in 182 patients (64.5%), HFNC 0-24 h failure in 74 patients (26.2%), and HFNC 24-48 h failure in 26 patients (9.2%). HFNC 24 h failure was significantly associated with the pediatric risk of mortality (PRISM) III score [odds ratio, 1.391; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.249-1.550], arterial partial pressure of carbon dioxide-to-arterial partial pressure of oxygen (PaCO₂/PaO₂) ratio (odds ratio, 38.397; 95% CI: 6.410-230.013), and respiratory rate-oxygenation (ROX) index (odds ratio, 0.751; 95% CI: 0.616-0.915). The discriminating cutoff point for the new scoring system based on the three risk factors for HFNC 24 h failure was ≥ 2.0 points, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.794 (95% CI, 0.729-0.859, P < 0.001), sensitivity of 68%, and specificity of 79%; similar values were noted on applying the model to the prospective observational cohort comprising 66 patients (AUC = 0.717, 95% CI, 0.675-0.758, sensitivity 83%, specificity 44%, P = 0.009). In this prospective cohort, 11 patients with HFNC failure had an upward trend in PaCO₂/PaO₂ ratio and downward trends in respiratory failure index (P/F ratio) and ROX index; however, opposite directions of change were observed in 55 patients with HFNC success. Furthermore, the fractional changes (FCs) in PaCO₂/PaO₂ ratio, P/F ratio, percutaneous oxygen saturation-to-fraction of inspired oxygen (S/F) ratio, and ROX index at 2 h post-HFNC therapy onset were statistically significant between the two groups (all, P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

In the pediatric patients with acute respiratory insufficiency, pre-treatment PRISM III score, PaCO₂/PaO₂ ratio, and ROX index were risk factors for HFNC 24 h failure, and the direction and magnitude of changes in the PaCO₂/PaO₂ ratio, P/F ratio, and ROX index before and 2 h after HFNC treatment were warning indicators for HFNC 24 h failure. Further close monitoring should be considered for patients with these conditions.

Intermittent fasting in paediatric critical illness: The properties and potential beneficial effects of an overnight fast in the PICU

Although evidence for the superiority of continuous feeding over intermittent feeding is lacking, in most paediatric intensive care units (PICU) artificial feeding is administered continuously for 24 h per day. Until now, studies in PICU on intermittent feeding have primarily focused on surrogate endpoints such as nutritional intake and gastro-intestinal complaints and none have studied the effects of an extended fasting period. Intermittent fasting has been proven to have many health benefits in both animal and human studies. The observed beneficial effects are based on multiple metabolic and endocrine changes that are presumed crucial in critical illness as well. One key element is the transition to ketone body metabolism, which, among others, contributes to the stimulation of several cellular pathways involved in stress resistance (neuro)plasticity and mitochondrial biogenesis, and might help preserve brain function. Secondly, the fasting state stimulates the activation of autophagy, a process that is crucial for cellular function and integrity. Of the different intermittent fasting strategies investigated, time-restricted feeding with a daily extended fasting period appears most feasible in the PICU. Moreover, planning the fasting period overnight could help maintain the circadian rhythm. Although not investigated, such an overnight intermittent fasting strategy might improve the metabolic profile, feeding tolerance and perhaps even have beneficial effects on tissue repair, reperfusion injury, muscle weakness, and the immune response. Future studies should investigate practical implications in critically ill children and the optimal duration of the fasting periods, which might be affected by the severity of illness and by age.