A Nomogram Predicting the Prognosis of Children With Biliary Atresia After Hepatoportoenterostomy

A convenient nomogram for predicting early death or liver transplantation after the Kasai procedure in patients with biliary atresia

PURPOSE

Many patients with biliary atresia (BA) after the Kasai procedure (KP) progress to death or require liver transplantation to achieve long-term survival; however, most cases of death/liver transplantation (D/LT) occur in the early period after KP (usually within 1 year). This study was designed to construct a convenient nomogram for predicting early D/LT in patients with BA after KP.

METHODS

A BA cohort was established in May 2017, and up to May 2023, 112 patients with 1-5 years of follow-up were enrolled in the study and randomly (ratio, 3:1) divided into a training cohort for constructing a nomogram (n = 84) and a validation cohort (n = 28) for externally validating the discrimination and calibration. The training cohort was divided into two groups: the early D/LT group (patients who died or had undergone LT within 1 year after KP [n = 35]) and the control group (patients who survived through the native liver more than 1 year after KP [n = 49]). Multivariate logistic regression and stepwise regression were applied to detect variables with the best predictive ability for the construction of the nomogram. The discrimination and calibration of the nomogram were internally and externally validated.

RESULTS

The Kaplan-Meier (K-M) curve showed an actual 1-year native liver transplantation (NLS) rate of 57.1% and an estimated 2-year NLS rate of 55.2%. By multivariate regression and stepwise regression, age at KP, jaundice clearance (JC) speed 1 month after KP, early-onset PC (initial time < 36.5 days) after KP, sex, aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI), and weight at KP were identified as the independent variables with the best ability to predict early D/LT and were used to construct a nomogram. The developed nomogram based on these independent variables showed relatively good discrimination and calibration according to internal and external validation.

CONCLUSION

Most D/LTs were early D/LTs that occurred within 1 year after KP. The established nomogram based on predictors, including sex, weight at the KP, the APRI, age at the KP, JC speed 1 month after the KP, and early PC, may be useful for predicting early D/LT and may be helpful for counseling BA patients about patient prognosis after KP. This study was retrospectively registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT05909033) in June 2023.

Predictors of biliary atresia outcome: Saudi National Study (2000 - 2018)

Background

Outcomes in biliary atresia (BA) have been well-documented in large national cohorts from Europe, North America, and East Asia. Understanding the challenges that preclude success of the Kasai portoenterostomy (KPE) is the key to improve the overall outcomes of BA and implementing intervention strategies. Here, we analyzed the data from the Saudi national BA study (204 BA cases diagnosed between 2000 and 2018) to identify the prognostic factors of BA outcomes.

Methods

One hundred and forty-three cases underwent KPE. Several prognostic factors (center case load, congenital anomalies, serum gamma-glutamyl transferase, use of steroids, ascending cholangitis post-operatively, and degree of portal fibrosis at time of KPE) were investigated and correlated with the primary outcomes of interest: 1) success of KPE (clearance of jaundice and total serum bilirubin <20 mmol/l after KPE), 2) survival with native liver (SNL), and 3) overall survival.

Results

Use of steroids after KPE was associated with clearance of jaundice, 68% vs. 36.8% in the BA cases that did not receive steroids (P = 0.013; odds ratio 2.5) and a significantly better SNL rate at 2 - and 10-year of 62.22% and 57.77% vs. 39.47% and 31.57%, respectively (P = 0.01). A better 10-year SNL was observed in centers with caseload <1/year (group 1) as compared to centers that performed ≥1/year (group 2) [45.34% vs. 26.66%, respectively; P = 0.047]. On comparison of the 2 groups, cases in group 1 had KPE at significantly earlier age (median 59.5 vs. 75 days, P = 0.006) and received steroids after KPE more frequently than group 2 (69% vs. 31%, P < 0.001). None of the remaining prognostic variables were identified as being significantly related to BA outcome.

Conclusion

Steroids use post-KPE predicted clearance of jaundice and better short- and long-term SNL. There is a need to establish a national BA registry in Saudi Arabia aiming to standardize the pre- and post-operative clinical practices and facilitate clinical and basic research to evaluate factors that influence BA outcome.

A Novel Model for Predicting the Clearance of Jaundice in Patients With Biliary Atresia After Kasai Procedure

BACKGROUND

The failed clearance of jaundice (CJ) in patients with biliary atresia (BA) after the Kasai procedure (KP) often leads to a shorter native liver survival (NLS) time and earlier liver transplantation. We aimed to investigate risk factors of failed CJ and establish a novel nomogram model to predict the status of CJ.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed institutional medical records from January 2015 to April 2020 and enrolled BA patients post-KP, randomly divided into training and testing cohorts at a ratio of 7:3, and further subdivided into cleared and uncleared jaundice groups. Univariate and multiple logistic regression analyses were used to select risk factors to establish the nomogram in the training cohort. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated by calculating the areas under the receiver operating curve (AUC) in both cohorts.

RESULTS

This study included 175 BA patients post-KP. After univariate and multiple logistic regression analyses, Cytomegalovirus IgM +ve associated BA (OR = 3.38; 95% CI 1.01-11.32; P = 0.04), ln γ-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT) (OR = 0.41; 95% CI 0.22-0.80; P = 0.009), thickness of the fibrous portal plate (OR = 0.45; 95% CI 0.27-0.76; P = 0.003), liver stiffness measurement (LSM) (OR = 1.19; 95% CI 1.06-1.34; P = 0.002), and multiple episodes of cholangitis (OR = 1.65; 95% CI 1.13-2.41; P = 0.01) were identified as independent risk factors of unsuccessful CJ to construct the nomogram. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis suggested good nomogram performance in both the training (AUC = 0.96) and testing cohorts (AUC = 0.91).

CONCLUSION

Our nomogram model including several risk factors effectively predicts CJ in patients post-KP, which could aid in clinical decision-making.

A nomogram model based on preoperative grey-scale US features and routine serum biomarkers to predict the outcome of infants with biliary atresia after Kasai portoenterostomy

OBJECTIVE

To establish a nomogram to predict the outcome of biliary atresia (BA) infants 3-months post- Kasai portoenterostomy (KPE).

METHODS

BA Infants who underwent KPE from two hospitals were included in the training (n = 161) and validation cohorts (n = 64). A logistic regression equation (Equation A) for predicting the serum total bilirubin (TBIL) level 3-month post-KPE was established in the training cohort. Then, a nomogram was developed based on Equation A in the training cohort and validated in the validation cohort. Moreover, a new equation (Equation B) was generated based on the nomogram and the size of the enlarged hilar lymph nodes (LNs) in the validation cohort. The predictive performance of the nomogram was evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and by calculating the area under the ROC curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and positive (PPV) and negative (NPV) prediction values.

RESULTS

A nomogram based on gallbladder morphology and serum levels of TBIL and total protein (TP) was established with AUC (95%CI) of 0.673 (0.595, 0.745) and 0.647 (0.518, 0.763), sensitivity (95%CI) of 71.4% (62.1%,79.6%) and 81.8% (59.7%,94.8%), specificity (95%CI) of 63.3% (48.3%,76.6%) and 47.6% (32.0%,63.6%), PPV (95%CI) of 81.6% (72.5%,88.9%) and 45.0% (29.3%,61.5%), and NPV (95%CI) 49.2% (36.4%,62.1%) and 83.3% (62.6%,95.3%), respectively, in the training and validation cohorts. Furthermore, in the validation cohort, the AUC (95%CI) of Equation B was 0.798 (95%CI: 0.679, 0.888), which was significantly higher than that of the nomogram (P = 0.042).

CONCLUSION

A nomogram based on the pre-KPE gallbladder morphology, TBIL, and TP to predict the outcome of BA 3-months post-KPE is established. Moreover, the addition of the size of the enlarged hilar LNs into the nomogram further improves its predictive value.