A Prediction Model of Extubation Failure Risk in Preterm Infants

Effectiveness of corticosteroids and epinephrine use in neonates for the first extubation attempt: A retrospective study

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to analyze the use of corticosteroids and epinephrine in neonates for the first extubation attempt and compared clinical characteristics of infants with successful and failed extubation events.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study conducted at a single level III neonatal intensive care unit in Taiwan. The study included 215 infants born between 2020 and 2021 who had been intubated for more than 48 h before their first extubation attempt. We compared perinatal and peri-extubation characteristics and outcomes between the two groups. Successful extubation was defined as freedom from invasive ventilatory support 72 h after extubation. The relationship between corticosteroids, local epinephrine, and successful extubation was determined using multivariate logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

In the univariate analysis, the failed extubation group received a significantly higher proportion of intravenous dexamethasone (p = 0.006) than the successful extubation group. Furthermore, the failed extubation group had a longer duration of nebulized epinephrine (p = 0.034) and more episodes of local application of epinephrine to the superior larynx (p = 0.003) than the successful extubation group. Multivariate analysis revealed that the absence of lung atelectasis, tachycardia 72 h after extubation, and lower post-extubation PCO2 were the key factors associated with successful extubation.

CONCLUSIONS

There were trends toward systemic dexamethasone, local application of epinephrine to the superior larynx, and longer duration of nebulized epinephrine in the reintubation group. However, corticosteroid or local epinephrine use was not significantly associated with successful extubation. Lung atelectasis, elevated levels of carbon dioxide, and tachycardia were identified as risk factors for extubation failure.

Development of a clinical prediction tool for extubation failure in pediatric cardiac intensive care unit

Introduction/objective

Extubation failure in pediatric patients with congenital or acquired heart diseases increases morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to develop a clinical risk score for predicting extubation failure to guide proper clinical decision-making and management.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective study. This clinical prediction score was developed using data from the Pediatric Cardiac Intensive Care Unit (PCICU) of the Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Thailand, from July 2016 to May 2022. Extubation failure was defined as the requirement for re-intubation within 48 h after extubation. Multivariable logistic regression was used for modeling. The score was evaluated in terms of discrimination and calibration.

Results

A total of 352 extubation events from 270 patients were documented. Among these, 40 events (11.36%) were extubation failure. Factors associated with extubation failure included history of pneumonia (OR: 4.14, 95% CI: 1.83-9.37, p = 0.001), history of re-intubation (OR: 5.99, 95% CI: 2.12-16.98, p = 0.001), and high saturation in physiologic cyanosis (OR: 5.94, 95% CI: 1.87-18.84, p = 0.003). These three factors were utilized to develop the risk score. The score showed acceptable discrimination with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.77 (95% CI: 0.69-0.86), and good calibration.

Conclusion

The derived Pediatric CMU Extubation Failure Prediction Score (Ped-CMU ExFPS) could satisfactorily predict extubation failure in pediatric cardiac patients. Employing this score could promote proper personalized care. We suggest conducting further external validation studies before considering implementation in practice.

Artificial intelligence in the NICU to predict extubation success in prematurely born infants

OBJECTIVES

Mechanical ventilation in prematurely born infants, particularly if prolonged, can cause long term complications including bronchopulmonary dysplasia. Timely extubation then is essential, yet predicting its success remains challenging. Artificial intelligence (AI) may provide a potential solution.

CONTENT

A narrative review was undertaken to explore AI's role in predicting extubation success in prematurely born infants. Across the 11 studies analysed, the range of reported area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) for the selected prediction models was between 0.7 and 0.87. Only two studies implemented an external validation procedure. Comparison to the results of clinical predictors was made in two studies. One group reported a logistic regression model that outperformed clinical predictors on decision tree analysis, while another group reported clinical predictors outperformed their artificial neural network model (AUCs: ANN 0.68 vs. clinical predictors 0.86). Amongst the studies there was an heterogenous selection of variables for inclusion in prediction models, as well as variations in definitions of extubation failure.

SUMMARY

Although there is potential for AI to enhance extubation success, no model's performance has yet surpassed that of clinical predictors.

OUTLOOK

Future studies should incorporate external validation to increase the applicability of the models to clinical settings.

Peri-extubation settings in preterm neonates: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To systematically review: 1) peri-extubation settings; and 2) association between peri-extubation settings and outcomes in preterm neonates.

STUDY DESIGN

In this systematic review, studies were eligible if they reported patient-data on peri-extubation settings (objective 1) and/or evaluated peri-extubation levels in relation to clinical outcomes (objective 2). Data were meta-analyzed when appropriate using random-effects model.

RESULTS

Of 9681 titles, 376 full-texts were reviewed and 101 included. The pooled means of peri-extubation settings were summarized. For objective 2, three experimental studies were identified comparing post-extubation CPAP levels. Meta-analyses revealed lower odds for treatment failure [pooled OR 0.46 (95% CI 0.27-0.76); 3 studies, 255 participants] but not for re-intubation [pooled OR 0.66 (0.22-1.97); 3 studies, 255 participants] with higher vs. lower CPAP.

CONCLUSIONS

Summary of peri-extubation settings may guide clinicians in their own practices. Higher CPAP levels may reduce extubation failure, but more data on peri-extubation settings that optimize outcomes are needed.

Predictors of successful extubation from volume-targeted ventilation in extremely preterm neonates

OBJECTIVE

To identify variables associated with extubation success in extremely preterm neonates extubated from invasive volume-targeted ventilation.

STUDY DESIGN

We retrospectively evaluated 84 neonates ≤28 weeks' gestational age, on their first elective extubation. The primary outcome of successful extubation was defined as non-reintubation within seven days. We used multivariate logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

We identified 58 (69%) neonates (mean gestational age of 26.5 ± 1.4 weeks, birthweight 921 ± 217 g) who met the primary outcome. Female sex (OR 1.15, 95% CI 1.01-9.10), higher pre-extubation weight (OR 1.29, 95% CI 1.05-1.59), and pH (OR 2.54, 95% CI 1.54-4.19), and lower pre-extubation mean airway pressure (MAP) (OR 0.49, 95% CI 0.33-0.73) were associated with successful extubation.

CONCLUSIONS

In preterm neonates, female sex, higher pre-extubation weight and pH, and lower pre-extubation MAP were predictors of successful extubation from volume-targeted ventilation. Evaluation of these variables will likely assist clinicians in selecting the optimal time for extubation in such vulnerable neonates.

Variables related to bronchopulmonary dysplasia severity: a Six-Year retrospective study

OBJECTIVES

This was a retrospective observational study conducted in a tertiary neonatal intensive care unit, in order to investigate factors which influenced the severity of bronchopulmonary dysplasia under NICHD new classification.

METHODS

Six years of clinical data with different grades of bronchopulmonary dysplasia patients were collected and analyzed, bivariate ordinal logistic regression model and multivariable ordinal logistic regression model were used with sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

We identified seven variables were associated with the severity of BPD via a bivariate ordinal logistic regression model, including the level of referral hospital (OR 0.273；95% CI 0.117, 0.636), method of caffeine administration (OR 00.418；95% CI 0.177, 0.991), more than two occurrences of reintubation (OR 4.925；95% CI 1.878, 12.915), CPAP reapplication (OR 2.255；95% CI 1.059, 4.802), presence of positive sputum cultures (OR 2.574；95% CI 1.200, 5.519), the cumulative duration of invasive ventilation (OR 1.047；95% CI 1.017, 1.078), and postmenstrual age at the discontinuation of oxygen supplementation (OR 1.190；95% CI 1.027, 1.38). These seven variables were further analyzed via all multivariable ordinal logistic regression models, and we found that tertiary hospital birth and early administration of caffeine could reduce the severity of BPD by approximately 70% (OR 0.263；95% CI 0.090, 0.770) and 60% (OR 0.371；95% CI 0.138, 0.995), respectively. In contrast, multiple reintubations were related to higher BPD severity with an OR of 3.358 (95% CI 1.002, 11.252).

CONCLUSION

Improving perinatal care in level II hospitals, standardized caffeine administration, and optimized extubation strategy could potentially decrease the severity of BPD.

Predictors of extubation failure in newborns: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Extubation failure (EF) is a significant concern in mechanically ventilated newborns, and predicting its occurrence is an ongoing area of research. To investigate the predictors of EF in newborns undergoing planned extubation, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis. A systematic literature search was conducted in PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, and Cochrane Library for studies published in English from the inception of each database to March 2023. The PRISMA guidelines were followed in all phases of this systematic review. The Risk of Bias Assessment for Nonrandomized Studies tool was used to assess methodological quality. Thirty-four studies were included, 10 of which were overall low risk of bias, 15 of moderate risk of bias, and 9 of high risk of bias. The studies reported 43 possible predictors in six broad categories (intrinsic factors; maternal factors; diseases and adverse conditions of the newborn; treatment of the newborn; characteristics before and after extubation; and clinical scores and composite indicators). Through a qualitative synthesis of 43 predictors and a quantitative meta-analysis of 19 factors, we identified five definite factors, eight possible factors, and 22 unclear factors related to EF. Definite factors included gestational age, sepsis, pre-extubation pH, pre-extubation FiO2, and respiratory severity score. Possible factors included age at extubation, anemia, inotropic use, mean airway pressure, pre-extubation PCO2, mechanical ventilation duration, Apgar score, and spontaneous breathing trial. With only a few high-quality studies currently available, well-designed and more extensive prospective studies investigating the predictors affecting EF are still needed. In the future, it will be important to explore the possibility of combining multiple predictors or assessment tools to enhance the accuracy of predicting extubation outcomes in clinical practice.

Risk Factors for Extubation Failure After Pediatric Cardiac Surgery and Impact on Outcomes: A Multicenter Analysis

IMPORTANCE

Extubation failure (EF) after pediatric cardiac surgery is associated with increased morbidity and mortality.

OBJECTIVES

We sought to describe the risk factors associated with early (< 48 hr) and late (48 hr ≤ 168 hr) EF after pediatric cardiac surgery and the clinical implications of these two types of EF.

DESIGN SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Retrospective cohort study using prospectively collected clinical data for the Pediatric Cardiac Critical Care Consortium (PC4) Registry. Pediatric patients undergoing Society of Thoracic Surgeons benchmark operation or heart transplant between 2013 and 2018 available in the PC4 Registry were included.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

We analyzed demographics and risk factors associated with EFs (primary outcome) including by type of surgery. We identified potentially modifiable risk factors. Clinical outcomes of mortality and length of stay (LOS) were reported.

RESULTS

Overall 18,278 extubations were analyzed. Unplanned extubations were excluded from the analysis. The rate of early EF was 5.2% (948) and late EF was 2.5% (461). Cardiopulmonary bypass time, ventilator duration, airway anomaly, genetic abnormalities, pleural effusion, and diaphragm paralysis contributed to both early and late EF. Extubation during day remote from shift change and nasotracheal route of initial intubation was associated with decreased risk of early EF. Extubation in the operating room was associated with an increased risk of early EF but with decreased risk of late EF. Across all operations except arterial switch, EF portrayed an increased burden of LOS and mortality.

CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE

Both early and late EF are associated with significant increase in LOS and mortality. Study provides potential benchmarking data by type of surgery. Modifiable risk factors such as route of intubation, time of extubation as well as treatment of potential contributors such as diaphragm paralysis or pleural effusion can serve as focus areas for reducing EFs.

Optimal timing of extubation in preterm infants

In neonatal intensive care, endotracheal intubation is usually performed as an urgent or semi-urgent procedure in infants with critical or unstable conditions related to progressive respiratory failure. Extubation is not. Patients undergoing extubation are typically stable, with improved respiratory function. The key elements to facilitating extubation are to recognize improvement in respiratory status, promote weaning of mechanical ventilation, and accurately identify readiness for removal of the endotracheal tube. Therefore, extubation should be a planned and well-organized procedure. In this review, we will appraise the evidence for existing predictors of extubation readiness and provide patient-specific, pathophysiology-derived strategies to optimize the timing and success of extubation in neonates, with a focus on extremely preterm infants.

A Nomogram for Predicting Extubation Failure in Preterm Infants with Gestational Age Less than 29 Weeks

INTRODUCTION

How to avoid reintubations in prematurity remains a hard nut. This study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram for predicting extubation failure in preterm infants who received different modes of noninvasive ventilation as post-extubation support.

METHODS

This was a secondary analysis of pre-existing data from a large multicenter RCT combined with a multicenter retrospective investigation in three tertiary referral NICUs in China. The training cohort consisted of extubated infants from the RCT and the validation cohort included neonates admitted to the three NICUs in the last 5 years. The nomogram was developed through univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses of peri-extubation clinical variables.

RESULTS

A total of 432 and 183 preterm infants (25 weeks ≤ gestational age [GA] <29 weeks) were, respectively, included in the training cohort and the validation cohort. Lower birth weight, lower Apgar 5-min score, lower postmenstrual age at extubation, lower PO2 and higher PCO2 before extubation, and continuous positive airway pressure rather than nasal intermittent positive pressure ventilation or noninvasive high-frequency oscillatory ventilation after extubation were associated with higher risks of extubation failure (p < 0.05), on which the nomogram was established. In both the training cohort and the validation cohort, the nomogram demonstrated good predictive accuracy (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.744 and 0.826); the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (p = 0.192 and 0.401) and the calibration curve (R2 = 0.195 and 0.307) proved a good fitness and conformity; and the decision curve analysis showed significant net benefit at the best threshold (p = 0.201).

CONCLUSION

This nomogram could serve as a good decision-support tool when predicting extubation failure in preterm infants with GA less than 29 weeks.

Risk factors and clinical outcomes of extubation failure in very early preterm infants: a single-center cohort study

BACKGROUND

Early extubation success (ES) in preterm infants may reduce various mechanical ventilation-associated complications; however, extubation failure (EF) can cause adverse short- and long-term outcomes. Therefore, the present study aimed to identify differences in risk factors and clinical outcomes between ES and EF in very early preterm infants.

METHODS

This retrospective study was conducted between January 2017 and December 2021. Premature infants born at 32 weeks' gestational age in whom extubation had failed at least once were assigned to the EF group. Successfully extubated patients with a similar gestational age and birth weight as those in the EF group were assigned to the ES group. EF was defined as the need for re-intubation within 120 h of extubation. Various variables were compared between groups.

RESULTS

The EF rate in this study was 18.6% (24/129), and approximately 80% of patients with EF required re-intubation within 90.17 h. In the ES group, there was less use of inotropes within 7 days of life (12 [63.2%] vs. 22 [91.7%], p = 0.022), a lower respiratory severity score (RSS) at 1 and 4 weeks (1.72 vs. 2.5, p = 0.026; 1.73 vs. 2.92, p = 0.010), and a faster time to reach full feeding (18.7 vs. 29.7, p = 0.020). There was a higher severity of bronchopulmonary dysplasia BPD (3 [15.8%] vs. 14 [58.3%], p = 0.018), longer duration of oxygen supply (66.5 vs. 92.9, p = 0.042), and higher corrected age at discharge (39.6 vs. 42.5, p = 0.043) in the EF group. The cutoff value, sensitivity, and specificity of the respiratory severity score (RSS) at 1 week were 1.98, 0.71, and 0.42, respectively, and the cutoff value, sensitivity, and specificity of RSS at 4 weeks were 2.22, 0.67, and 0.47, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

EF caused adverse short-term outcomes such as a higher BPD severity and longer hospital stay. Therefore, extubation in very early preterm infants should be carefully evaluated. Using inotropes, feeding, and RSS at 1 week of age can help predict extubation success.

Analysis of predictive parameters for extubation in very low birth weight preterm infants

BACKGROUND

Mechanical ventilation is the primary treatment for preterm infants with respiratory failure. Prolonged intubation may lead to complications; thus, early extubation is desirable. No standard criteria exist for determining the appropriateness of extubating very-low-birth-weight (VLBW) infants. This study explored the predictors of successful extubation in preterm VLBW infants.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included 60 preterm VLBW infants who underwent their first extubation in the neonatal intensive care unit in a regional hospital in Hsinchu, Taiwan, between January 2017 and November 2020. Successful extubation was defined as having no requirement of reintubation within 3 days of extubation. Potentially predictive variables, including demographics, prenatal characteristics, and ventilator parameters were compared between a successful extubation group and failed extubation group.

RESULTS

Of the 60 infants, 47 (78.33%) underwent successful extubation. The successful extubation group had higher Apgar scores at 1 (7 vs. 6, P = 0.02) and 5 min (9 vs. 7, P = 0.007) than those of the failed extubation group. Ventilator inspiratory pressure and mean airway pressure were significantly lower at 24, 16, 8, and 1 h before extubation and upon its completion in the successful extubation group. The areas under a number of the receiver operating characteristic curve curves in this study were moderate, specifically, 0.72, 0.74, and 0.69. Statistical analysis revealed an association between ventilator parameters before 1 h extubation (IP > 17.5cmH₂O, MAP >7.5 cmH₂O, RSS >1.82) and extubation failure (odds ratio 1.73, 2.27, 2.46 and 95% confidence interval:1.16-2.6, 1.26-4.08, 1.06-5.68, respectively).

CONCLUSION

Higher Apgar scores at birth, lower ventilator inspiratory pressure, and mean airway pressure 24, 16, 8, and 1 h and 1 h RSS prior to extubation are associated with successful extubation in VLBW preterm infants.

Predictors of extubation outcomes among extremely and very preterm infants: a retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To explore the clinical or sociodemographic predictors for both successful and failed extubation among Chinese extremely and very preterm infants METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was carried out among extremely and very preterm infants born at less than 32 weeks of gestational age (GA).

RESULTS

Compared with the infants who experienced extubation failure, the successful infants had higher birth weight (OR 0.997; CI 0.996-0.998), higher GA (OR 0.582; 95% CI 0.499-0.678), a caesarean section delivery (OR 0.598; 95% CI 0.380-0.939), a higher five-minute Apgar score (OR 0.501; 95% CI 0.257-0.977), and a higher pH prior to extubation (OR 0.008; 95% CI 0.001-0.058). Failed extubation was associated with older mothers (OR 1.055; 95% CI 1.013-1.099), infants intubated in the delivery room (OR 2.820; 95% CI 1.742-4.563), a higher fraction of inspired oxygen (FiO₂) prior to extubation (OR 5.246; 95% CI 2.540-10.835), higher partial pressure of carbon dioxide (PCO₂) prior to extubation (OR 7.820; 95% CI 3.725-16.420), and higher amounts of lactic acid (OR 1.478;95% CI 1.063-2.056).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher GA, higher pre-extubation pH, lower pre-extubation FiO₂ and PCO, and lower age at extubation are significant predictors of successful extubation among extremely and very preterm infants.

Predictors of extubation success: a population-based study of neonates below a gestational age of 26 weeks

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the study was to investigate first extubation attempts among extremely premature (EP) infants and to explore factors that may increase the quality of clinical judgement of extubation readiness.

DESIGN AND METHOD

A population-based study was conducted to explore first extubation attempts for EP infants born before a gestational age (GA) of 26 weeks in Norway between 1 January 2013 and 31 December 2018. Eligible infants were identified via the Norwegian Neonatal Network database. The primary outcome was successful extubation, defined as no reintubation within 72 hours after extubation.

RESULTS

Among 482 eligible infants, 316 first extubation attempts were identified. Overall, 173 (55%) infants were successfully extubated, whereas the first attempt failed in 143 (45%) infants. A total of 261 (83%) infants were extubated from conventional ventilation (CV), and 55 (17%) infants were extubated from high-frequency oscillatory ventilation (HFOV). In extubation from CV, pre-extubation fraction of inspired oxygen (FiO₂) ≤0.35, higher Apgar score, higher GA, female sex and higher postnatal age were important predictors of successful extubation. In extubation from HFOV, a pre-extubation FiO₂ level ≤0.35 was a relevant predictor of successful extubation.

CONCLUSIONS

The correct timing of extubation in EP infants is important. In this national cohort, 55% of the first extubation attempts were successful. Our results suggest that additional emphasis on oxygen requirement, sex and general condition at birth may further increase extubation success when clinicians are about to extubate EP infants for the first time.