Evolution of a Bidirectional Pediatric Critical Care Educational Partnership in a Resource-Limited Setting

Evaluating the Demand for Nucleic Acid Testing in Different Scenarios of COVID-19 Transmission: A Simulation Study

INTRODUCTION

The 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has been recognized as the most severe human infectious disease pandemic in the past century. To enhance our ability to control potential infectious diseases in the future, this study simulated the influence of nucleic acid testing on the transmission of COVID-19 across varied scenarios. Additionally, it assessed the demand for nucleic acid testing under different circumstances, aiming to furnish a decision-making foundation for the implementation of nucleic acid screening measures, the provision of emergency materials, and the allocation of human resources.

METHODS

Considering the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and the preventive measures implemented by countries, we explored three distinct levels of epidemic intensity: community transmission, outbreak, and sporadic cases. Integrating the theory of scenario analysis, we formulated six hypothetical epidemic scenarios, each corresponding to possible occurrences during different phases of the pandemic. We developed an improved SEIR model, validated its accuracy using real-world data, and conducted a comprehensive analysis and prediction of COVID-19 infections under these six scenarios. Simultaneously, we assessed the testing resource requirements associated with each scenario.

RESULTS

We compared the predicted number of infections simulated by the modified SEIR model with the actual reported cases in Israel to validate the model. The root mean square error (RMSE) was 350.09, and the R-squared (R2) was 0.99, indicating a well-fitted model. Scenario 4 demonstrated the most effective prevention and control outcomes. Strengthening non-pharmaceutical interventions and increasing nucleic acid testing frequency, even under low testing capacity, resulted in a delayed epidemic peak by 78 days. The proportion of undetected cases decreased from 77.83% to 31.21%, and the overall testing demand significantly decreased, meeting maximum demand even with low testing capacity. The initiation of testing influenced case detection probability. Under high testing capacity, increasing testing frequency elevated the detection rate from 36.40% to 77.83%. Nucleic acid screening proved effective in reducing the demand for testing resources under diverse epidemic prevention and control strategies. While effective interventions and nucleic acid screening measures substantially diminished the demand for testing-related resources, varying degrees of insufficient testing capacity may still persist.

CONCLUSIONS

The nucleic acid detection strategy proves effective in promptly identifying and isolating infected individuals, thereby mitigating the infection peak and extending the time to peak. In situations with constrained testing capacity, implementing more stringent measures can notably decrease the number of infections and alleviate resource demands. The improved SEIR model demonstrates proficiency in predicting both reported and unreported cases, offering valuable insights for future infection risk assessments. Rapid evaluations of testing requirements across diverse scenarios can aptly address resource limitations in specific regions, offering substantial evidence for the formulation of future infectious disease testing strategies.

Implementation and evaluation of a shock curriculum using simulation in Manila, Philippines: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Shock causes significant morbidity and mortality in children living in resource-limited settings. Simulation has been successfully used as an educational tool for medical professionals internationally. We sought to improve comfort and knowledge regarding shock recognition and fluid management by implementing a pediatric shock curriculum using simulation as an assessment for trainees in Manila, Philippines.

METHODS

We assessed a shock curriculum focused on patients with malnutrition in a prospective cohort study, using a written test and a videotaped simulation-based objective standardized clinical examination. Implementation occurred in March 2020 with 24 Filipino pediatric residents at a single institution in Manila. Outcomes included time to initiation of fluid resuscitation, improvement in confidence, knowledge on a written assessment, and performance in simulation. Results were compared pre- and post-intervention using Wilcoxon signed-rank test.

RESULTS

The time to initiation of fluids did not change between the baseline simulation (median [interquartile range] = 71.5 seconds [52-116.5]) and the final simulation (68 seconds [52.5-89]; P = 0.42). Confidence in identifying shock and malnutrition, managing hypovolemic shock, managing septic shock, and placing intraosseous access all increased (P < 0.01) post-intervention. Written test scores showed no improvement, but performance in simulation, measured using a checklist, improved from a total score of 10 [8.5-11] to 15 [13-16] (P < 0.01).

CONCLUSION

In our study of a simulation-based shock education program, we showed improvement in confidence and knowledge as measured by a resuscitation checklist. It is feasible to establish a successful simulation-based education program in a low-resource setting.