Dynamic Transitions of Pediatric Sepsis: A Markov Chain Analysis

The use of probabilistic graphical models in pediatric sepsis: a feasibility and scoping review

Background

Recent research has demonstrated that machine learning (ML) has the potential to improve several aspects of medical application for critical illness, including sepsis. This scoping review aims to evaluate the feasibility of probabilistic graphical model (PGM) methods in pediatric sepsis application and describe the use of pediatric sepsis definition in these studies.

Methods

Literature searches were conducted in PubMed, Scopus, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL+), and Web of Sciences from 2000-2023. Keywords included "pediatric", "neonates", "infants", "machine learning", "probabilistic graphical model", and "sepsis".

Results

A total of 3,244 studies were screened, and 72 were included in this scoping review. Sepsis was defined using positive microbiology cultures in 19 studies (26.4%), followed by the 2005's international pediatric sepsis consensus definition in 11 studies (15.3%), and Sepsis-3 definition in seven studies (9.7%). Other sepsis definitions included: bacterial infection, the international classification of diseases, clinicians' assessment, and antibiotic administration time. Among the most common ML approaches used were logistic regression (n=27), random forest (n=24), and Neural Network (n=18). PGMs were used in 13 studies (18.1%), including Bayesian classifiers (n=10), and the Markov Model (n=3). When applied on the same dataset, PGMs show a relatively inferior performance to other ML models in most cases. Other aspects of explainability and transparency were not examined in these studies.

Conclusions

Current studies suggest that the performance of probabilistic graphic models is relatively inferior to other ML methods. However, its explainability and transparency advantages make it a potentially viable method for several pediatric sepsis studies and applications.

Informatics and data science perspective on Future of Nursing 2020-2030: Charting a pathway to health equity

The Future of Nursing 2020 to 2030 report explicitly addresses the need for integration of nursing expertise in designing, generating, analyzing, and applying data to support initiatives focused on social determinants of health (SDOH) and health equity. The metrics necessary to enable and evaluate progress on all recommendations require harnessing existing data sources and developing new ones, as well as transforming and integrating data into information systems to facilitate communication, information sharing, and decision making among the key stakeholders. We examine the recommendations of the 2021 report through an interdisciplinary lens that integrates nursing, biomedical informatics, and data science by addressing three critical questions: (a) what data are needed?, (b) what infrastructure and processes are needed to transform data into information?, and (c) what information systems are needed to "level up" nurse-led interventions from the micro-level to the meso- and macro-levels to address social determinants of health and advance health equity?

Case report: evaluation of an open-source synthetic data platform for simulation studies

Simulation is a mainstay of comparative- and cost-effectiveness research when empirical data are not available. The Synthea platform, originally designed for generating realistically coded longitudinal health records for software testing, implements data generation models specified in publicly contributed modules representing patients’ life cycle and disease and treatment progression. We test the hypothesis that Synthea can be used for simulation studies that draw parameters from observational studies and randomized trials. We benchmarked the results and assessed the effort required to create a Synthea module that replicates a recently published cost-effectiveness simulation comparing levofloxacin prophylaxis to usual care for leukemia. A module was iteratively developed using published parameters from the original study; we replicated the initial conditions and simulation endpoints of demographics, health events, costs, and mortality. We compare Synthea’s Generic Module Framework to platforms designed for simulation and show that Synthea can be used, with modifications, for some types of simulation studies.

Beyond prediction: Off-target uses of artificial intelligence-based predictive analytics in a learning health system

Introduction

Artificial-intelligence (AI)-based predictive analytics provide new opportunities to leverage rich sources of continuous data to improve patient care through early warning of the risk of clinical deterioration and improved situational awareness.Part of the success of predictive analytic implementation relies on integration of the analytic within complex clinical workflows. Pharmaceutical interventions have off-target uses where a drug indication has not been formally studied for a different indication but has potential for clinical benefit. An analog has not been described in the context of AI-based predictive analytics, that is, when a predictive analytic has been trained on one outcome of interest but is used for additional applications in clinical practice.

Methods

In this manuscript we present three clinical vignettes describing off-target use of AI-based predictive analytics that evolved organically through real-world practice.

Results

Off-target uses included:real-time feedback about treatment effectiveness, indication of readiness to discharge, and indication of the acuity of a hospital unit.

Conclusion

Such practice fits well with the learning health system goals to continuously integrate data and experience to provide.