A nomogram for predicting severe adenovirus pneumonia in children

Risk factors and prediction models for bronchiolitis obliterans after severe adenoviral pneumonia

Severe adenoviral pneumonia (SAP) can cause post-infectious bronchiolitis obliterans (PIBO) in children. We aimed to investigate the relevant risk factors for PIBO and develop a predictive nomogram for PIBO in children with SAP. This prospective study analysed the clinical data of hospitalised children with SAP and categorised them into the PIBO and non-PIBO groups. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regressions were applied to variables that exhibited significant intergroup differences. Logistic regression was adopted to analyse the risk factors for PIBO. Additionally, a nomogram was constructed, and its effectiveness was assessed using calibration curves, C-index, and decision curve analysis. A total of 148 hospitalised children with SAP were collected in this study. Among them, 112 achieved favourable recovery, whereas 36 developed PIBO. Multivariable regression after variable selection via LASSO revealed that aged < 1 year (OR, 2.38, 95% CI, 0.82-6.77), admission to PICU (OR, 24.40, 95% CI, 7.16-105.00), long duration of fever (OR, 1.16, 95% CI, 1.04-1.31), and bilateral lung infection (OR, 8.78, 95% CI, 1.32-195.00) were major risk factors for PIBO. The nomogram model included the four risk factors: The C-index of the model was 0.85 (95% CI, 0.71-0.99), and the area under the curve was 0.85 (95% CI, 0.78-0.92). The model showed good calibration with the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (χ2 = 8.52, P = 0.38) and was useful in clinical settings with decision curve analysis.

CONCLUSION

Age < 1 year, PICU admission, long fever duration, and bilateral lung infection are independent risk factors for PIBO in children with SAP. The nomogram model may aid clinicians in the early diagnosis and intervention of PIBO.

WHAT IS KNOWN

• Adenoviruses are the most common pathogens associated with PIBO. • Wheezing, tachypnoea, hypoxemia, and mechanical ventilation are the risk factors for PIBO.

WHAT IS NEW

• Age < 1 year, admission to PICU, long duration of fever days, and bilateral lung infection are independent risk factors for PIBO in children with SAP. • A prediction model presented as a nomogram may help clinicians in the early diagnosis and intervention of PIBO.