Savanna Tree Seedlings are Physiologically Tolerant to Nighttime Freeze Events

Climate change decouples dominant tree species in African savannas

To understand how two dominant African savanna trees will continue to respond to climate changes, we examined their regeneration niche and adult tree distributions. Specifically, we wanted to (1) determine if distributional patterns were shifting, (2) predict future distributions under different climate change scenarios and (3) evaluate the realism of predicted future distributions. We randomly placed 40 grids into 6 strata across a climate gradient in the kingdom of Eswatini. Within these grids, we sampled adult and seedling marula (Scelerocarya birrea) and knobthorn (Senegalia nigrecens) trees and used the data to model their abundance. Next, we quantified shifts in distributional patterns (e.g., expansion or contraction) by measuring the current and projected areas of overlap between seedling and adult trees. Finally, we predicted future distributions of abundance based on predicted climate conditions. We found knobthorn seedlings within a small portion of the adult distribution, suggesting it was unlikely to track climate changes. Alternatively, finding marula seedlings on and beyond one edge of the adult distribution, suggested its range would shift toward cooler climates. Predicted future distributions suggest suitable climate for both species would transition out of savannas and into grasslands. Future projections (2041-2070) appeared consistent with observed distributions of marula, but knobthorn predictions were unrealistic given the lack of evidence for regeneration outside of its current range. The idiosyncratic responses of these species to climate change are likely to decouple these keystone structures in the coming decades and are likely to have considerable cascading effects including the potential rearrangement of faunal communities.

Effects and response of the Cerrado ground-layer to frost along the canopy cover gradient

Frost effects on savanna plant communities have been considered as analogous to those from fire, both changing community structure and filtering species composition. However, while frost impacts have been well-studied for the woody component of savannas, it is still poorly explored for the ground-layer community. Here, we investigated effects of frost in the Cerrado along a gradient of tree cover, focusing on ground-layer plant species, near the southern limit of the Cerrado in Brazil. We aimed to elucidate if the pattern already described for the tree layer also extends to the ground layer in terms of mimicking the effects of fire on vegetation structure and composition. We assessed how damage severity differs across species and across the tree-cover gradient, and we examined the recovery process after frost in terms of richness and community structure along the canopy cover gradient. Frost caused immediate and widespread dieback of the perennial ground-layer, with greatest impact on community structure where tree cover was lowest. However, frost did not reduce the number of species, indicating community resilience to this natural disturbance. Although frost mimicked the effects of fire in some ways, in other ways it differed substantially from fire. Unlike fire, frost increases litter cover and decreases the proportion of bare soil, likely hindering crucial processes for recovery of plant populations, such as seed dispersal, seed germination and plant resprouting. This finding calls attention to the risk of misguided conclusions when the ground layer is neglected in ecological studies of tropical savannas and grasslands.

What shapes the range edge of a dominant African savanna tree, Colophospermum mopane? A demographic approach

Climate is widely assumed to be the primary process that limits the distribution ranges of plants. Yet, savannas have vegetation not at equilibrium with climate, instead its structure and function are shaped by interactions between fire, herbivory, climate, and vegetation. I use the rich literature of a dominant African savanna woody plant, Colophospermum mopane, to demonstrate that climate and disturbance interact with each demographic stage to shape this species range limits. This synthesis highlights that climate-based predictions for the range of C. mopane inadequately represents the processes that shape its distribution. Instead, seed bank depletion and rainfall limitation create a demographic bottleneck at the early seedling stage. The legacy of top-kill from disturbance changes tree stand architecture causing a critical limitation in seed supply. Exposure to top-kill at all demographic stages causes a vigorous resprouting response and shifts tree architecture from that of 1-2 stemmed tall trees to that of a short multi-stemmed shrub. The shorter, multi-stemmed shrubs are below the height threshold (4 m) at which they can produce seeds, resulting in shrub-dominated landscapes that are effectively sterile. This effect is likely most pronounced at the range edge where top-kill-inducing disturbances increase in frequency. The proposed mechanistic, demographic-based understanding of C. mopane's range limits highlights the complexity of processes that interact to shape its range edges. This insight serves as a conceptual model for understanding the determinants of range limits of other dominant woody savannas species living in disturbance limited ecosystems.

What drives grassland-forest boundaries? Assessing fire and frost effects on tree seedling survival and architecture

Fire and frost represent two major hurdles for the persistence of trees in open grassy biomes and have both been proposed as drivers of grassland-forest boundaries in Africa.We assess the response of young tree seedlings, which represent a vulnerable stage in tree recruitment, to traumatic fire and frost disturbances.In a greenhouse experiment, we investigated how seedling traits predicted survival and resprouting ability in response to fire versus frost; we characterized survival strategies of seedlings in response to the two disturbances, and we documented how the architecture of surviving seedlings is affected by fire versus frost injury.Survival rates were similar under both treatments. However, different species displayed different levels of sensitivity to fire and frost. Seedling survival was higher for older seedlings and seedlings with more basal leaves. Survivors of a fire event lost more biomass than the survivors of a frost event. However, the architecture of recovered fire- and frost-treated seedlings was mostly similar. Seedlings that recovered from fire and frost treatments were often shorter than those that had not been exposed to any disturbance, with multiple thin branches, which may increase vulnerability to the next frost or fire event. Synthesis. Fire caused more severe aboveground damage compared with a single frost event, suggesting that fire is an important driver of tree distribution in these open grassland systems. However, the impact of repeated frost events may be equally severe and needs to be investigated. Also, woody species composition may be influenced by phenomena that affect the timing and frequency of seedling exposure to damage, as mortality was found to be dependent on seedling age. Therefore, changes in fire regime and climate are likely to result in changes in the composition and the structure of the woody components of these systems.