Scalable Sparse Testing Genomic Selection Strategy for Early Yield Testing Stage

Genomic selection in plant breeding: Key factors shaping two decades of progress

Genomic selection, the application of genomic prediction (GP) models to select candidate individuals, has significantly advanced in the past two decades, effectively accelerating genetic gains in plant breeding. This article provides a holistic overview of key factors that have influenced GP in plant breeding during this period. We delved into the pivotal roles of training population size and genetic diversity, and their relationship with the breeding population, in determining GP accuracy. Special emphasis was placed on optimizing training population size. We explored its benefits and the associated diminishing returns beyond an optimum size. This was done while considering the balance between resource allocation and maximizing prediction accuracy through current optimization algorithms. The density and distribution of single-nucleotide polymorphisms, level of linkage disequilibrium, genetic complexity, trait heritability, statistical machine-learning methods, and non-additive effects are the other vital factors. Using wheat, maize, and potato as examples, we summarize the effect of these factors on the accuracy of GP for various traits. The search for high accuracy in GP-theoretically reaching one when using the Pearson's correlation as a metric-is an active research area as yet far from optimal for various traits. We hypothesize that with ultra-high sizes of genotypic and phenotypic datasets, effective training population optimization methods and support from other omics approaches (transcriptomics, metabolomics and proteomics) coupled with deep-learning algorithms could overcome the boundaries of current limitations to achieve the highest possible prediction accuracy, making genomic selection an effective tool in plant breeding.

The effect of cycles of genomic selection on the wheat (T. aestivum) genome

We documented changes in the wheat genome attributed to genomic selection including loss of diversity, and changes in population structure and linkage disequilibrium patterns. We conclude that training and prediction populations need to co-evolve instead of the use of a static training population. Genomic selection (GS) is widely used in plant breeding to shorten breeding cycles. Our objective was to assess the impact of rapid cycling GS on the wheat genome. We used 3927 markers to genotype a training population (YTP) and individuals from five cycles (YC1-YC5) of GS for grain yield. We assessed changes of allele frequency, genetic distance, population structure, and linkage disequilibrium (LD). We found 27.3% of all markers had a significant allele frequency change by YC5, 18% experienced a significant change attributed to selection, and 9.3% had a significant change due to either drift or selection. A total of 725 of 3927 markers were fixed by YC5 with selection fixing 7.3% of the 725 markers. The genetic distance between cycles increased over time. The Fst value of 0.224 between YTP and YC5 indicates their relationship was low. The number LD blocks decreased over time and the correlation between LD matrices also decreased over time. Overall, we found a reduction in genetic diversity, increased genetic differentiation of cycles from the training population, and restructuring of the LD patterns over cycles. The accuracy of GS depends on the genomic similarity of the training population and the prediction populations. Our results show that the similarity can decline rapidly over cycles of GS and compromise the predictive ability of the YTP-based model. Our results support implementing a GS scheme where the training and prediction populations co-evolve instead of the use of a static training population.

Sparse multi-trait genomic prediction under balanced incomplete block design

Sparse testing is essential to increase the efficiency of the genomic selection methodology, as the same efficiency (in this case prediction power) can be obtained while using less genotypes evaluated in the fields. For this reason, it is important to evaluate the existing methods for performing the allocation of lines to environments. With this goal, four methods (M1-M4) to allocate lines to environments were evaluated under the context of a multi-trait genomic prediction problem: M1 denotes the allocation of a fraction (subset) of lines in all locations, M2 denotes the allocation of a fraction of lines with some shared lines in locations but not arranged based on the balanced incomplete block design (BIBD) principle, M3 denotes the random allocation of a subset of lines to locations, and M4 denotes the allocation of a subset of lines to locations using the BIBD principle. The evaluation was done using seven real multi-environment data sets common in plant breeding programs. We found that the best method was M4 and the worst was M1, while no important differences were found between M3 and M4. We concluded that M4 and M3 are efficient in the context of sparse testing for multi-trait prediction.

Multi-environment Genomic Selection in Rice Elite Breeding Lines

BACKGROUND

Assessing the performance of elite lines in target environments is essential for breeding programs to select the most relevant genotypes. One of the main complexities in this task resides in accounting for the genotype by environment interactions. Genomic prediction models that integrate information from multi-environment trials and environmental covariates can be efficient tools in this context. The objective of this study was to assess the predictive ability of different genomic prediction models to optimize the use of multi-environment information. We used 111 elite breeding lines representing the diversity of the international rice research institute breeding program for irrigated ecosystems. The lines were evaluated for three traits (days to flowering, plant height, and grain yield) in 15 environments in Asia and Africa and genotyped with 882 SNP markers. We evaluated the efficiency of genomic prediction to predict untested environments using seven multi-environment models and three cross-validation scenarios.

RESULTS

The elite lines were found to belong to the indica group and more specifically the indica-1B subgroup which gathered improved material originating from the Green Revolution. Phenotypic correlations between environments were high for days to flowering and plant height (33% and 54% of pairwise correlation greater than 0.5) but low for grain yield (lower than 0.2 in most cases). Clustering analyses based on environmental covariates separated Asia's and Africa's environments into different clusters or subclusters. The predictive abilities ranged from 0.06 to 0.79 for days to flowering, 0.25-0.88 for plant height, and - 0.29-0.62 for grain yield. We found that models integrating genotype-by-environment interaction effects did not perform significantly better than models integrating only main effects (genotypes and environment or environmental covariates). The different cross-validation scenarios showed that, in most cases, the use of all available environments gave better results than a subset.

CONCLUSION

Multi-environment genomic prediction models with main effects were sufficient for accurate phenotypic prediction of elite lines in targeted environments. These results will help refine the testing strategy to update the genomic prediction models to improve predictive ability.

Enhancing genetic gain through the application of genomic selection in developing irrigated rice for the favorable ecosystem in Bangladesh

Increasing selection differential and decreasing cycle time, the rate of genetic improvement can be accelerated. Creating and capturing higher genetic with higher accuracy within the shortest possible time is the prerequisite for enhancing genetic gain for any trait. Comprehensive yield testing at multi-locations at early generations together with the shortest line fixation time can expedite the rapid recycling of parents in the breeding program through recurrent selection. Genomic selection is efficient in capturing high breeding value individuals taking additive genetic effects of all genes into account with and without extensive field testing, thus reducing breeding cycle time enhances genetic gain. In the Bangladesh Rice Research Institute, GS technology together with the trait-specific marker-assisted selection at the early generation of RGA-derived breeding lines showed a prediction accuracy of 0.454-0.701 with 0.989-2.623 relative efficiency over the four consecutive years of exercise. This study reports that the application of GS together with trait-specific MAS has expedited the yield improvement by 117 kg ha^-1·year^-1, which is around seven-fold larger than the baseline annual genetic gain and shortened the breeding cycle by around 1.5 years from the existing 4.5 years.

Multi-trait genomic prediction improves selection accuracy for enhancing seed mineral concentrations in pea

Multi-trait genomic selection (MT-GS) has the potential to improve predictive ability by maximizing the use of information across related genotypes and genetically correlated traits. In this study, we extended the use of sparse phenotyping method into the MT-GS framework by split testing of entries to maximize borrowing of information across genotypes and predict missing phenotypes for targeted traits without additional phenotyping expenditure. Using 300 advanced breeding lines from North Dakota State University (NDSU) pulse breeding program and ∼200 USDA accessions that were evaluated for 10 nutritional traits, our results show that the proposed sparse phenotyping aided MT-GS can further improve predictive ability by >12% across traits compared with univariate (UNI) genomic selection. The proposed strategy departed from the previous reports that weak genetic correlation is a limitation to the advantage of MT-GS over UNI genomic selection, which was evident in the partially balanced phenotyping-enabled MT-GS. Our results point to heritability and genetic correlation between traits as possible metrics to optimize and further improve the estimation of model parameters, and ultimately, prediction performance. Overall, our study offers a new approach to optimize the prediction performance using the MT-GS and further highlight strategy to maximize the efficiency of GS in a plant breeding program. The sparse-testing-aided MT-GS proposed in this study can be further extended to multi-environment, multi-trait GS to improve prediction performance and further reduce the cost of phenotyping and time-consuming data collection process.

Sparse testing using genomic prediction improves selection for breeding targets in elite spring wheat

Sparse testing using genomic prediction can be efficiently used to increase the number of testing environments while maintaining selection intensity in the early yield testing stage without increasing the breeding budget. Sparse testing using genomic prediction enables expanded use of selection environments in early-stage yield testing without increasing phenotyping cost. We evaluated different sparse testing strategies in the yield testing stage of a CIMMYT spring wheat breeding pipeline characterized by multiple populations each with small family sizes of 1-9 individuals. Our results indicated that a substantial overlap between lines across environments should be used to achieve optimal prediction accuracy. As sparse testing leverages information generated within and across environments, the genetic correlations between environments and genomic relationships of lines across environments were the main drivers of prediction accuracy in multi-environment yield trials. Including information from previous evaluation years did not consistently improve the prediction performance. Genomic best linear unbiased prediction was found to be the best predictor of true breeding value, and therefore, we propose that it should be used as a selection decision metric in the early yield testing stages. We also propose it as a proxy for assessing prediction performance to mirror breeder's advancement decisions in a breeding program so that it can be readily applied for advancement decisions by breeding programs.

Using an incomplete block design to allocate lines to environments improves sparse genome-based prediction in plant breeding

Genomic selection (GS) is a predictive methodology that trains statistical machine-learning models with a reference population that is used to perform genome-enabled predictions of new lines. In plant breeding, it has the potential to increase the speed and reduce the cost of selection. However, to optimize resources, sparse testing methods have been proposed. A common approach is to guarantee a proportion of nonoverlapping and overlapping lines allocated randomly in locations, that is, lines appearing in some locations but not in all. In this study we propose using incomplete block designs (IBD), principally, for the allocation of lines to locations in such a way that not all lines are observed in all locations. We compare this allocation with a random allocation of lines to locations guaranteeing that the lines are allocated to the same number of locations as under the IBD design. We implemented this benchmarking on several crop data sets under the Bayesian genomic best linear unbiased predictor (GBLUP) model, finding that allocation under the principle of IBD outperformed random allocation by between 1.4% and 26.5% across locations, traits, and data sets in terms of mean square error. Although a wide range of performance improvements were observed, our results provide evidence that using IBD for the allocation of lines to locations can help improve predictive performance compared with random allocation. This has the potential to be applied to large-scale plant breeding programs.