Opportunities and Challenges of Predictive Approaches for Harnessing the Potential of Genetic Resources

Genomic prediction of synthetic hexaploid wheat upon tetraploid durum and diploid Aegilops parental pools

Bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is a globally important food crop, which was domesticated about 8-10,000 years ago. Bread wheat is an allopolyploid, and it evolved from two hybridization events of three species. To widen the genetic base in breeding, bread wheat has been re-synthesized by crossing durum wheat (Triticum turgidum ssp. durum) and goat grass (Aegilops tauschii Coss), leading to so-called synthetic hexaploid wheat (SHW). We applied the quantitative genetics tools of "hybrid prediction"-originally developed for the prediction of wheat hybrids generated from different heterotic groups - to a situation of allopolyploidization. Our use-case predicts the phenotypes of SHW for three quantitatively inherited global wheat diseases, namely tan spot (TS), septoria nodorum blotch (SNB), and spot blotch (SB). Our results revealed prediction abilities comparable to studies in 'traditional' elite or hybrid wheat. Prediction abilities were highest using a marker model and performing random cross-validation, predicting the performance of untested SHW (0.483 for SB to 0.730 for TS). When testing parents not necessarily used in SHW, combination prediction abilities were slightly lower (0.378 for SB to 0.718 for TS), yet still promising. Despite the limited phenotypic data, our results provide a general example for predictive models targeting an allopolyploidization event and a method that can guide the use of genetic resources available in gene banks.

Results from rapid-cycle recurrent genomic selection in spring bread wheat

Genomic selection (GS) in wheat breeding programs is of great interest for predicting the genotypic values of individuals, where both additive and nonadditive effects determine the final breeding value of lines. While several simulation studies have shown the efficiency of rapid-cycling GS strategies for parental selection or population improvement, their practical implementations are still lacking in wheat and other crops. In this study, we demonstrate the potential of rapid-cycle recurrent GS (RCRGS) to increase genetic gain for grain yield (GY) in wheat. Our results showed a consistent realized genetic gain for GY after 3 cycles of recombination (C1, C2, and C3) of bi-parental F1s, when summarized across 2 years of phenotyping. For both evaluation years combined, genetic gain through RCRGS reached 12.3% from cycle C0 to C3 and realized gain was 0.28 ton ha-1 per cycle with a GY from C0 (6.88 ton ha-1) to C3 (7.73 ton ha-1). RCRGS was also associated with some changes in important agronomic traits that were measured (days to heading, days to maturity, and plant height) but not selected for. To account for these changes, we recommend implementing GS together with multi-trait prediction models.

Implication of high variance in germplasm characteristics

The beauty of conserving germplasm is the securement of genetic resources with numerous important traits, which could be utilized whenever they need to be incorporated into current cultivars. However, it would not be as useful as expected if the proper information was not given to breeders and researchers. In this study, we demonstrated that there is a large variation, both among and within germplasm, using a low-cost image-based phenotyping method; this could be valuable for improving gene banks' screening systems and for crop breeding. Using the image analyses of 507 accessions of buckwheat, we identified a wide range of variations per trait between germplasm accessions and within an accession. Since this implies a similarity with other important agronomic traits, we suggest that the variance of the presented traits should be checked and provided for better germplasm enhancement.