Determinants of judgment and decision making quality: the interplay between information processing style and situational factors

Beyond the Surface: A New Perspective on Dual-System Theories in Decision-Making

The current paper provides a critical evaluation of the dual-system approach in cognitive psychology. This evaluation challenges traditional classifications that associate intuitive processes solely with noncompensatory models and deliberate processes with compensatory ones. Instead, it suggests a more nuanced framework where intuitive and deliberate characteristics coexist within both compensatory and noncompensatory processes. This refined understanding of dual-process models has significant implications for improving theoretical models of decision-making, providing a more comprehensive account of the cognitive mechanisms underlying human judgment and choice.

Faster, more accurate, more confident? An exploratory experiment on soccer referees' yellow card decision-making

This study aimed to examine how soccer referees make decisions about issuing yellow cards for fouls. The research involved 60 male participants, divided into expert (n=30) and novice (n=30) groups based on their experience and qualifications as referees. They took part in a 2×2×2 mixed-design experiment. The study looked at Decision-Making Style (DMS: Analytical Decision-Making [ADM] vs. Intuitive Decision-Making [IDM]), Video Type (yellow card foul vs. non-yellow card foul), and Referee Level (expert vs. novice) as independent variables. The dependent variables were accuracy rate (ACC), discrimination index (D), self-confidence index (C), and overconfidence index (OC). The findings showed that Analytical Decision-Making (ADM) led to higher accuracy compared to Intuitive Decision-Making (IDM). Expert referees demonstrated better accuracy than novice referees. There was also an interaction between Decision-Making Style and Referee Level, showing differences in the effectiveness of ADM and IDM between expert and novice referees. Additionally, the study revealed that both expert and novice referees showed overconfidence, with experts demonstrating significantly higher overconfidence, particularly during IDM. In conclusion, the research highlighted the complexity of referees' decision-making in high-pressure situations and emphasized the potential benefits of employing Analytical Decision-Making strategies. The study contributed to understanding cognitive biases in sports officiating and suggested the need for targeted training programs to help referees improve their performance and reduce overconfidence in challenging situations.

Cognitive biases and moral characteristics of healthcare workers and their treatment approach for persons with advanced dementia in acute care settings

INTRODUCTION

Palliative care (PC) delivery for persons with advanced dementia (AD) remains low, particularly in acute-care settings. Studies have shown that cognitive biases and moral characteristics can influence patient care through their effect on the thinking patterns of healthcare workers (HCWs). This study aimed to determine whether cognitive biases, including representativeness, availability, and anchoring, are associated with treatment approaches, ranging from palliative to aggressive care in acute medical situations, for persons with AD.

METHODS

Three hundred fifteen HCWs participated in this study: 159 physicians and 156 nurses from medical and surgical wards in two hospitals. The following questionnaires were administered: a socio-demographic questionnaire; the Moral Sensitivity Questionnaire; the Professional Moral Courage Scale; a case scenario of a person with AD presenting with pneumonia, with six possible interventions ranging from PC to aggressive care (referring to life-prolonging interventions), each given a score from (-1) (palliative) to 3 (aggressive), the sum of which is the "Treatment Approach Score;" and 12 items assessing perceptions regarding PC for dementia. Those items, the moral scores, and professional orientation (medical/surgical) were classified into the three cognitive biases.

RESULTS

The following aspects of cognitive biases were associated with the Treatment Approach Score: representativeness-agreement with the definition of dementia as a terminal disease and appropriateness of PC for dementia; availability-perceived organizational support for PC decisions, apprehension regarding response to PC decisions by seniors or family, and apprehension regarding a lawsuit following PC; and anchoring-perceived PC appropriateness by colleagues, comfort with end-of-life conversations, guilt feelings following the death of a patient, stress, and avoidance accompanying care. No association was found between moral characteristics and the treatment approach. In a multivariate analysis, the predictors of the care approach were: guilt feelings about the death of a patient, apprehension regarding senior-level response, and PC appropriateness for dementia.

CONCLUSION

Cognitive biases were associated with the care decisions for persons with AD in acute medical conditions. These findings provide insight into the potential effects of cognitive biases on clinical decisions, which may explain the disparity between treatment guidelines and the deficiency in the implementation of palliation for this population.

The effect of methylphenidate and mixed amphetamine salts on cognitive reflection: a field study

RATIONALE

Methylphenidate (MPH) and mixed D,L-amphetamine salts (MASs; Adderall) were previously found to have unreliable effects on judgment and decision processes.

OBJECTIVE

We predicted that MPH and MASs have a specific effect of reducing heuristic responses, which should lead to increased performance on the cognitive reflection test (CRT). The CRT is considered to be a testbed for heuristic versus deliberative response modes.

METHODS

We recruited a sample of 15,361 individuals using the Prolific Academic crowdsourcing platform. From this initial pool, our final sample consisted of 294 participants (125 MPH users and 169 MASs users) who conformed to the study criteria and completed the experimental tasks. Tasks were performed on days where participants were either medicated or not, allowing to assess the effect of medication status.

RESULTS

There was a strong positive effect of taking MPH on CRT scores (Cohen's d = 0.40) which was not qualified by frequency of MPH usage, ADHD symptoms, and demographic factors. There was also a somewhat weaker effect for MASs (Cohen's d = 0.07). No effects of MPH and MASs were recorded for risk-taking and numeracy.

CONCLUSIONS

The results indicate that MPH enhances decision-making in tasks where heuristic responses typically bias it.

Immunizing with information - Inoculation messages against conversational agents' response failures

Conversational agents (CAs) are often unable to provide meaningful responses to user requests, thereby triggering user resistance and impairing the successful diffusion of CAs. Literature mostly focuses on improving CA responses but fails to address user resistance in the event of further response failures. Drawing on inoculation theory and the elaboration likelihood model, we examine how inoculation messages, as communication that seeks to prepare users for a possible response failure, can be used as an alleviation mechanism. We conducted a randomized experiment with 558 users, investigating how the performance level (high or low) and the linguistic form of the performance information (qualitative or quantitative) affected users' decision to discontinue CA usage after a response failure. We found that inoculation messages indicating a low performance level alleviate the negative effects of CA response failures on discontinuance. However, quantitative performance level information exhibits this moderating effect on users' central processing, while qualitative performance level information affected users' peripheral processing. Extending studies that primarily discuss ex-post strategies, our results provide meaningful insights for practitioners.

Time Is Money: The Effect of Mode-of-Thought on Financial Decision-Making

The dual-system approach holds that deliberative decisions and in-depth evaluation processes lead people to better financial decisions. However, research identifies situations where optimal economic decisions may stem from a more intuitive decision process. In the current work, we present three experimental studies that examined how these two modes-of-thought affect financial decisions. In Study 1, deliberative processes were indeed associated with better one-shot descriptive-based financial decisions. However, Study 2 showed that when participants were asked to make repeated decisions and were required to learn from their experience, the advantage of deliberative over intuitive processes was eliminated. In addition, when participants employed intuitive processes, the quality of their financial decisions improved significantly with experience. Finally, Study 3 showed that the deliberative processing style may lose its advantage when information is not fully available. Overall, these findings suggest that deliberation may contribute to financial decision-making in one-shot decisions. However, when information is lacking, and decisions are repetitive, intuitive processes might be just as good.

The psychology of task management: The smaller tasks trap

When people are confronted with multiple tasks, how do they decide which task to do first? Normatively, priority should be given to the most efficient task (i.e., the task with the best cost/benefit ratio). However, we hypothesize that people consistently choose to address smaller (involving less work) tasks first, and continue to focus on smaller tasks, even when this strategy emerges as less efficient, a phenomenon we term the “smaller tasks trap”. We also hypothesize that the preference for the smaller tasks is negatively related to individual differences in the tendency for rational thinking. To test these hypotheses, we developed a novel paradigm consisting of an incentive-compatible task management game, in which participants are saddled with multiple tasks and have to decide how to handle them. The results lend weight to the smaller tasks trap and indicate that individual differences in rational thinking predict susceptibility to this trap. That is, participants low in rational thinking preferred to start with a smaller (vs. larger) task and focused more on the smaller tasks regardless of their efficiency. Consequently, their overall performance in the task management game was significantly lower. We discuss the theoretical and practical implications of these findings and suggest possible interventions that may help people improve their task management.

The intuitive use of contextual information in decisions made with verbal and numerical quantifiers

Verbal and numerical formats (e.g., verbal: “low fat,” or numerical: “20% fat”) are used interchangeably to communicate nutritional information. However, prior research implies that verbal quantifiers are processed more intuitively than numerical ones. We tested this hypothesis in two pre-registered experiments measuring four indicators of processing style: (a) response time, (b) decision performance, (c) reliance on irrelevant contextual information, which we inferred from participants’ decision patterns, and (d) the level of interference from a concurrent memory task. Participants imagined they had consumed a given amount of a nutrient (represented in a pie chart) and decided whether a new quantity (either verbal or numerical) could be eaten within their guideline daily amount (GDA). The experiments used a mixed design varying format (verbal or numerical), concurrent memory load (no load, easy, and hard load in Experiment 1; no load and hard load in Experiment 2), nutrient (fat and minerals), quantity (low, medium, and high in Experiment 1; low and high in Experiment 2), and the assigned correct response for a trial (within and exceeding limits). Participants were faster and made fewer correct decisions with verbal quantifiers, and they relied more on contextual information (i.e., the identity of the nutrient involved). However, memory load did not impair decisions with verbal or numerical quantifiers. Altogether, these results suggest that verbal quantifiers are processed intuitively, slightly more so than numerical quantifiers, but that numerical quantifiers do not require much analytical processing to reach simple decisions.

Intuitive vs Deliberative Approaches to Making Decisions About Life Support: A Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE

Patients with serious illnesses are often encouraged to actively deliberate about the desirability of life support. Yet it is unknown whether deliberation changes the substance or quality of such decisions.

OBJECTIVE

To identify differences in decisions about life support interventions and goals of care made intuitively vs deliberatively by patients with serious illnesses.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Randomized clinical trial in which patients were asked to express treatment preferences in a series of clinical scenarios. Participants were 199 hospitalized patients aged 60 years and older with serious oncologic, cardiac, and pulmonary illnesses treated in a large, urban academic hospital from July 1, 2015, through March 15, 2016.

INTERVENTIONS

Patients in the intuitive group were subjected to a cognitive load and instructed to answer each question immediately based on gut instinct. Patients in the deliberative group were not cognitively loaded, were instructed to think carefully about their answers, and were required to explain their answers.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Choices regarding life support (4 scenarios) and goals of care (1 scenario), concordance of these choices with patients' valuations of health states that could follow from them, and decisional uncertainty.

RESULTS

Of 199 patients, 132 (66%) were male and the mean (SD) age was 67.2 (5.0) years. Similar proportions of patients in the intuitive group (n = 97) and the deliberative group (n = 102) said they would accept a feeding tube for chronic aspiration (42% vs 44%, respectively; difference, -2%; 95% CI, -16% to 12%; P = .79), antibiotics for life-threatening infection in the event of terminal illness (39% vs 43%, respectively; difference, -4%; 95% CI, -18% to 10%; P = .57), a trial of mechanical ventilation (59% vs 60%, respectively; difference,-1%; 95% CI, -15% to 13%; P = .88), and a tracheostomy tube (37% vs 41%, respectively; difference, -4%; 95% CI, -22% to 13%; P = .64). Patients in the deliberative group were slightly more likely than patients in the intuitive group to choose a palliative approach to treatment in the event of serious illness (45% vs 30%, respectively; difference, 15%; 95% CI, 1%-29%; P = .04). Across scenarios, decisional uncertainty was similar between the 2 groups (all P > .05), and intuitive decisions were either equally or more closely aligned with patients' health state valuations than deliberative decisions.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this study, encouraging hospitalized patients with serious illnesses to deliberate on end-of-life decisions did not change the content or improve the quality of these decisions. It is important to evaluate whether decision aids and structured communication interventions improve seriously ill patients' choices.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02487810.

Measurements of Rationality: Individual Differences in Information Processing, the Transitivity of Preferences and Decision Strategies

The first goal of this study was to validate the Rational-Experiential Inventory (REI) and the Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) through checking their relation to the transitivity axiom. The second goal was to test the relation between decision strategies and cognitive style as well as the relation between decision strategies and the transitivity of preferences. The following characteristics of strategies were investigated: requirements for trade-offs, maximization vs. satisficing and option-wise vs. attribute-wise information processing. Respondents were given choices between two multi-attribute options. The options were designed so that the choice indicated which strategy was applied. Both the REI-R and the CRT were found to be good predictors of the transitivity of preferences. Respondents who applied compensatory strategies and the maximization criterion scored highly on the REI-R and in the CRT, whereas those who applied the satisficing rule scored highly on the REI-R but not in the CRT. Attribute-wise information processing was related to low scores in both measurements. Option-wise information processing led to a high transitivity of preferences.