A Review of Functions of Speculative Thinking

The asymmetric impact of decision-making confidence on regret and relief

When individuals make uncertain decisions, they often evaluate the correctness of their choices in what is referred to as decision-making confidence. The outcomes of such decision-making can lead to counterfactual thinking wherein alternative possible outcomes are contemplated. This, in turn, can elicit counterfactual emotions including upward and downward counterfactual thinking, which, respectively, refer to regret and relief. Decision-making confidence and counterfactual emotions have key effects on how individuals learn from the past and prepare for the future. However, there has been little understanding of how these experiences are related. For this study, 98 total adults were recruited with the goal of assessing the connections between decision-making confidence and sensations of regret and relief when completing a card-based gambling task. The results of this study suggest that decision-making confidence may reduce the intensity of relief while increasing the degree of regret experienced. These findings thus emphasize the important effect that decision confidence has on emotional processing.

How Duty-Free Policy Influences Travel Intention: Mediating Role of Perceived Value and Moderating Roles of COVID-19 Severity and Counterfactual Thinking

Counterfactual thinking is presumed to play a preparatory function in promoting people's behavioural intentions. This study specifically addresses the impacts of COVID-19 severity, tourists' counterfactual thinking about the pandemic, and tourists' perceived duty-free consumption value on the effect of a duty-free policy on travel intentions. Four hundred and ten participants took part in this study, which involved a 2 (duty-free policy: absent vs. present) × 2 (COVID-19 severity: high vs. low) design. Results reveal the following patterns: (a) compared to the absence of a duty-free policy in tourist destinations, enactment of a duty-free policy leads to stronger visit intentions through greater perceived value and (b) the effect of a duty-free policy on travel intention is moderated by tourists' counterfactual thinking and COVID-19 severity.