Research on Disability Grading Based on ICF Functional Framework: Empirical Evidence From Zhejiang Province, China

Life expectancy, long-term care demand and dynamic financing mechanism simulation: an empirical study of Zhejiang Pilot, China

BACKGROUND

China has piloted Long-Term Care Insurance (LTCI) to address increasing care demand. However, many cities neglected adjusting LTCI premiums since the pilot, risking the long-term sustainability of LTCI. Therefore, using Zhejiang Province as a case, this study simulated mortality-adjusted long-term care demand and the balance of LTCI funds through dynamic financing mechanism under diverse life expectancy and disability scenarios.

METHODS

Three-parameter log-quadratic model was used to estimate the mortality from 1990 to 2020. Mortality with predicted interval from 2020 to 2080 was projected by Lee-Carter method extended with rotation. Cohort-component projection model was used to simulate the number of older population with different degrees of disability. Disability data of the older people is sourced from China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study 2018. The balance of LTCI fund was simulated by dynamic financing actuarial model.

RESULTS

Life expectancy of Zhejiang for male (female) is from 80.46 (84.66) years in 2020 to 89.39 [86.61, 91.74] (91.24 [88.90, 93.25]) years in 2080. The number of long-term care demand with severe disability in Zhejiang demonstrates an increasing trend from 285 [276, 295] thousand in 2023 to 1027 [634, 1657] thousand in 2080 under predicted mean of life expectancy. LTCI fund in Zhejiang will become accumulated surplus from 2024 to 2080 when annual premium growth rate is 5.25% [4.20%, 6.25%] under various disability scenarios, which is much higher than the annual growth of unit cost of long-term care services (2.25%). The accumulated balance of LTCI fund is sensitive with life expectancy.

CONCLUSIONS

Dynamic growth of LTCI premium is essential in dealing with current deficit around 2050 and realizing Zhejiang's LTCI sustainability in the long-run. The importance of dynamic monitoring disability and mortality information is emphasized to respond immediately to the increase of premiums. LTCI should strike a balance between expanding coverage and controlling financing scale. This study provides implications for developing countries to establish or pilot LTCI schemes.

The effect of city size on the disability rate of the older adults: empirical evidence from CHARLS data

Background

Exploring the value orientation of city development from the perspective of people's well-being is key to clarifying the current debate on city size strategies.

Methods

Based on the survey data of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study in two phases, and by using the unbalanced panel-ordered logit model, stepwise analysis method, and KHB method, among others, we discuss the impact of city size on the disability rate of older adults.

Results

The study finds that city size significantly and positively affects the activities of daily living (ADL) of older adults, with odd ratios of 1.3286 (95% CI = [1.082243, 1.631089]), and exhibits significant group heterogeneity in terms of age, registered residence, income, and education level. City size has indeed played an mediation role through the health improvement effect, disease mitigation effect, emotional effect, and employment structure optimization effect, with a cumulative contribution rate of the mediation effect of 35.17%. In addition, the urban sprawl index has a significant moderation role.

Discussion

Robust urban sprawl is conducive to promoting the improvement of the regional health environment, the improvement of the medical security policy, the optimization of the family support policy, and the employment structure, thus helping to reduce the disability rate of older adults.

Correlation between air pollution and cognitive impairment among older individuals: empirical evidence from China

BACKGROUND

Little information is available regarding the impact of air pollution on cognitive impairment in older individuals in developing countries. This study empirically tested the impacts of the air quality index (AQI), air pollution intensity (quantified by the number of days of extreme air pollution in a year), and different pollutants on the cognitive abilities of older Chinese individuals.

METHODS

A panel of 28,395 participants spanning 122 cities in 2015 and 2018 was used, based on 3-year follow-up survey data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) database. Data from the two phases of the CHARLS microsurvey were combined with relevant statistical data on air pollution in each region in the current year. These two surveys were used to investigate changes in basic health and macro-environmental indicators in older individuals in China, and a mean difference test was conducted. We then reduced the sample selection error by controlling for environmental migration and used two-way fixed and instrumental variable methods for endogenous treatment to avoid the estimation error caused by missing variables.

RESULTS

Air pollution had a significantly negative effect on the cognitive abilities of older individuals (odds ratio [OR]: 1.4633; 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 1.20899-1.77116). Different pollution intensities(only AQI value is greater than 200 or more) had apparent effects on cognitive impairment, with an OR of approximately 1.0. Sulfur dioxide had significantly negative effects on cognitive ability, with OR of 1.3802 (95% CI: 1.25779-1.51451). Furthermore, air pollution impact analysis showed heterogeneous results in terms of age, sex, education, and regional economic development level. In addition, social adaptability (calculated using social participation, learning, adaptability, and social support) not only had a significant positive effect on the cognitive abilities of older individuals, but also regulated the cognitive decline caused by air pollution.

CONCLUSIONS

Air pollution affects cognitive impairment in older individuals, especially in those with lower education levels, and living in economically underdeveloped areas. This effect is synchronous and has a peak at an AQI of > 200.

Determining the effect of air quality on activities of daily living disability: using tracking survey data from 122 cities in China

Background

Current research on activities of daily living (ADLs) disability has mostly focused on the analysis of demographic characteristics, while research on the microcharacteristics of individuals and the macroenvironment is relatively limited, and these studies solely concern the impact of air quality on individual health.

Methods

This study innovatively investigated the impact of air quality on ADL disability by matching micro data of individuals from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study with data of urban environmental quality from 122 cities. In this study, an ordered panel logit model was adopted for the benchmark test, and the two-stage ordered probit model with IV was used for endogenous treatment.

Results

This innovative study investigated the impact of air quality on ADL disability by matching individual micro data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study with urban environmental quality data for 122 cities. The results showed that air quality significantly increased the probability of ADL disability. The positive and marginal effect of air quality on moderate and mild disability was higher. Generally, the marginal effect of air quality on residents’ health was negative. In terms of group heterogeneity, the ADL disability of individuals aged over 60 years, those in the high Gross Domestic Product (GDP) group, females, and those in the nonpilot long-term care insurance group was more affected by air quality, and the interaction between air quality and serious illness showed that the deterioration of air quality exacerbated the ADL disability caused by serious illness; that is, the moderating effect was significant.

Conclusions

According to the equilibrium condition of the individual health production function, the ADL disability caused by a 1% improvement in air quality is equivalent to the ADL disability caused by an 89.9652% reduction in serious illness, indicating that the effect of improved air quality is difficult to replace by any other method. Therefore, good air quality can not only reduce ADL disability directly but also reduce serious illness indirectly, which is equivalent to the reduction of ADL disability. This is called the health impact.

Socioeconomic status and ADL disability of the older adults: Cumulative health effects, social outcomes and impact mechanisms

INTRODUCTION

Socioeconomic status (SES) is one of the important indicators affecting individual's social participation and resource allocation, and it also plays an important role in the health shock of individuals. Faced by the trend of aging society, more and more nations across the world began to pay attention to prevent the risk of health shock of old adults.

METHODS

Based on the data of China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) in 2013, 2015 and 2018, this study uses path analysis and ologit model to empirically estimate the effects of SES and health shock on the activities of daily living (ADL) disability of old adults.

RESULTS

As a result, first, it was found that SES has significant impact on the disability of old adults. Specifically, economic conditions (income) plays dominant role. Economic status affects the risk of individual disability mainly through life security and health behavior. Secondly, SES significantly affecting health shock, with education and economic status showing remarkable impact, and there is an apparent group inequality. Furthermore, taking high education group as reference, the probability of good sight or hearing ability of the low education group was only 49.76% and 63.29% of the high education group, respectively, while the rates of no pain and severe illness were 155.50% and 54.69% of the high education group. At last, the estimation of path effect of SES on ADL disability indicates evident group inequality, with health shock plays critical mediating role.

CONCLUSIONS

SES is an important factor influencing residents' health shock, and health shocks like cerebral thrombosis and cerebral hemorrhage will indirectly lead to the risk of individual ADL disability. Furthermore, among the multi-dimensional indicators of SES, individual income and education are predominant factors affecting health shock and ADL disability, while occupation of pre-retirement have little impact.

Impact of Air Pollution on Residents' Medical Expenses: A Study Based on the Survey Data of 122 Cities in China

Background: With the development of the social economy, air pollution has resulted in increased social costs. Medical costs and health issues due to air pollution are important aspects of environmental governance in various countries.

Methods: This study uses daily air pollution monitoring data from 122 cities in China to empirically investigate the impact of air pollution on residents' medical expenses using the Heckman two-stage and instrumental variable methods, matching data from the 2018 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) survey.

Results: The study found that poor air quality, measured by the air quality index (AQI), significantly increased the probability of chronic lung disease, heart disease, and self-rated poor health. Additionally, the AQI (with an effect of 4.51%) significantly impacted health-seeking behavior and medical expenses. The medical expenditure effects of mild, moderate, severe, and serious pollution days were 3.27, 7.21, 8.62, and 42.66%, respectively.

Conclusion: In the long run, residents' health in areas with a higher air pollution index, indicating poor air quality, is negatively impacted. The more extreme the pollution, the higher the probability of residents' medical treatment and the subsequent increase in medical expenses. Group and regional heterogeneity also play a role in the impact of air pollution on medical expenses. Compared with the existing literature, this study is based on individuals aged 15 years and above and produces reliable research conclusions.

Evaluating the long-term care insurance policy from medical expenses and health security equity perspective: evidence from China

Background

Since the national long-term care (LTCI) policy pilot in 2016 of China, the LTCI policy has had significant impact on the residents in the pilot area.

Methods

From the perspective of medical expenses and health security equity, this study selects tracking survey data from the CHARLS database in 2013, 2015, and 2018 and empirically investigates the effect of LTCI policy pilot by using differences-in-differences method (DID). Moreover, this study measures the economic distribution and health equity of the treated and untreated groups using the concentration and Theil indices.

Results

The results showed that group heterogeneity of medical expenses and health level of elderly in the treatment group were narrowing. Moreover, the policy results showed that the LTCI policy pilot significantly affects the outpatient, hospital expenses, and length of stay of elders. Residence registration, income level, and basic medical insurance play a significant regulatory role. Additionally, LTCI policy pilot significantly improved the overall health of the elderly.

Conclusions

The measurement results of inequality show that the policy increases the income of low-income people, lowers the inequality level of outpatient and inpatient reimbursement, and reduces the concentration index of ADL disability and serious diseases. However, the inequality of serious diseases is becoming higher. Based on this, this paper provides several suggestions on optimizing the pilot policy of LTCI.