Can Health Human Capital Help the Sub-Saharan Africa Out of the Poverty Trap? An ARDL Model Approach

Physician density: will we ever close the gap?

OBJECTIVE

Physician density is a crucial element of a well-functioning health system. Previous research has investigated factors affecting country-level physician supply. To date, however, no evidence has been provided about the patterns of convergence in physician density among countries. This paper thus tested club convergence in physician density in 204 countries worldwide from 1990 to 2019. A nonlinear time-varying factor model was adopted to identify potential clubs, wherein groups of countries tend to converge towards the same level of physician density. Our primary purpose was to document the potential long-lasting disparity in future global physician distribution.

RESULTS

Despite physician density increasing in all regions globally from 1990 to 2019, we found no evidence in favor of the hypothesis of global convergence. Conversely, the clustering algorithm successfully identified three main patterns (i.e., three final clubs). With few exceptions, the results indicated an uneven physician distribution between the majority of North and Sub-Saharan African countries (where physician density would remain well below the estimated threshold of at least 70% of the Universal Health Coverage Services Index) and the rest of the world. These findings support the WHO's global strategy to reverse the chronic under-investment in human resources for health.

Health Risk, Income Effect, and the Stability of Farmers' Poverty Alleviation in Deep Poverty Areas: A Case Study of S-County in Qinba Mountain Area

Health status and income level are both important factors in reducing poverty and accomplishing sustainable development in deep poverty areas of China. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to provide policy support for the sustainable poverty alleviation of farmers by analyzing the net effect of health risk on Farmers' income poverty and its impact mechanism. Based on the data of more than 199,000 farmers, this study uses the Difference in Difference (DID) model to empirically analyze the effect of health-risk on farmers' income poverty. The empirical findings obtained from DID model show that health risk has a significant and positive impact on income poverty, where the impact of disability is higher. Furthermore, the mechanism shows that the impact of health risks on income poverty is mainly influenced by farmers' off-farm working choices and time. The heterogeneity analysis shows that the health risk significantly impacts non-vulnerable farmers' poverty. With outdated healthcare facilities in poverty-stricken areas, people are more likely to fall into income poverty. Therefore, the study concludes that establishing an effective long-term mechanism of health risk prevention is essential to improving the endogenous development power of poor farmers and decreasing income poverty.

Region-income-based prioritisation of Sustainable Development Goals by Gradient Boosting Machine

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) seek to address complex global challenges and cover aspects of social development, environmental protection, and economic growth. However, the holistic and complicated nature of the goals has made their attainment difficult. Achieving all goals by 2030 given countries' limited budgets with the economic and social disruption that the COVID-19 pandemic has caused is over-optimistic. To have the most profound impact on the SDGs achievement, prioritising and improving co-beneficial goals is an effective solution. This study confirms that countries' geographic location and income level have a significant relationship with overall SDGs achievement. This article applies the Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) algorithm to identify the top five SDGs that drive the overall SDG score. The results show that the influential SDGs vary for countries with a specific income level located in different regions. In Europe and Central Asia, SDG10 is among the most influential goals for high-income countries, SDG9 for upper-middle-income, SDG3 in low and lower-middle-income countries of Sub-Saharan Africa, and SDG5 in Latin America and the Caribbean upper-middle-income countries. This systematic and exploratory data-driven study generates new insights that confirm the uniqueness, and non-linearity of the relationship between goals and overall SDGs achievement.

Can the Profitability of Medical Enterprises Be Improved After Joining China's Centralized Drug Procurement? A Difference-in-Difference Design

This paper explores the impact of joining centralized drug procurement of China on the profitability of medical enterprises by the difference-in-difference (DID) model. When centralized procurement cannot bring enough cost savings to enterprises, the price competition caused by centralized procurement will lead to the decline of enterprise profits. In the short term, the negative impact of China's drug centralized procurement policy on the net profit of enterprises is not obvious in the year when enterprises win the bid. After the government officially purchases from pharmaceutical enterprises, the negative impact of the drug centralized procurement policy of China on the net profit of enterprises begins to appear gradually. Therefore, the generic drug manufacturers increase R&D investment and have their own heavy products of original drugs as soon as possible to enhance their core competitiveness.