A Vulnerability Assessment for a Future HIV Outbreak Associated With Injection Drug Use in Illinois, 2017-2018

Preparing for the next outbreak: A review of indices measuring outbreak preparedness, vulnerability, and resilience

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for relevant metrics describing the resources and community attributes that affect the impact of communicable disease outbreaks. Such tools can help inform policy, assess change, and identify gaps to potentially reduce the negative outcomes of future outbreaks. The present review was designed to identify available indices to assess communicable disease outbreak preparedness, vulnerability, or resilience, including articles describing an index or scale developed to address disasters or emergencies which could be applied to addressing a future outbreak. This review assesses the landscape of indices available, with a particular focus on tools assessing local-level attributes. This systematic review yielded 59 unique indices applicable to assessing communicable disease outbreaks through the lens of preparedness, vulnerability, or resilience. However, despite the large number of tools identified, only 3 of these indices assessed factors at the local level and were generalizable to different types of outbreaks. Given the influence of local resources and community attributes on a wide range of communicable disease outcomes, there is a need for local-level tools that can be applied broadly to various types of outbreaks. Such tools should assess both current and long-term changes in outbreak preparedness with the intent to identify gaps, inform local-level decision makers, public policy, and future response to current and novel outbreaks.

Application of machine learning algorithms for localized syringe services program policy implementation - Florida, 2017

BACKGROUND

People who inject drugs (PWID) are at an amplified vulnerability for experiencing a multitude of harms related to their substance use, including viral (e.g. HIV, Hepatitis C) and bacterial infections (e.g. endocarditis). Implementation of evidence-based interventions, such as syringe services programs (SSPs), remains imperative, particularly in locations at an increased risk of HIV outbreaks. This study aims to identify communities in Florida that are high-priority locations for SSP implementation by examining state-level data related to the substance use and overdose crises.

METHODS

State-level surveillance data were aggregated at the ZIP Code Tabulation Area (ZCTA) (n = 983) for 2017. We used confirmed cases of acute HCV infection as a proxy of injection drug use. Least Absolute Selection and Shrinkage Operator (LASSO) regression was used to develop a machine learning model to identify significant indicators of acute HCV infection and high-priority areas for SSP implementation due to their increased vulnerability to an HIV outbreak.

RESULTS

The final model retained three variables of importance: (1) the number of drug-associated skin and soft tissue infection hospitalizations, (2) the number of chronic HCV infections in people aged 18-39, and 3) the number of drug-associated endocarditis hospitalizations. High-priority SSP implementation locations were identified in both urban and rural communities outside of current Ending the HIV Epidemic counties.

CONCLUSION

SSPs are long researched, safe, and effective evidence-based programs that offer a variety of services that reduce disease transmission and assist with combating the overdose crisis. Opportunities to increase services in needed regions across the state now exist in Florida as supported by the expansion of the Infectious Disease Elimination Act of 2019. This study provides details where potential areas of concern may be and highlights regions where future evidence-based harm reduction programs, such as SSPs, would be useful to reduce opioid overdoses and disease transmission among PWID.Key messagesThe rate of acute HCV in Florida in 2017 was 1.9 per 100,000, nearly twice the national average.Serious injection related infections among PWID are significant indicators of acute HCV infection.High-priority SSP implementation locations in Florida were identified in both urban and rural communities, including those outside of current Ending the HIV Epidemic counties.

Analysis of HIV quasispecies and virological outcome of an HIV D+/R+ kidney-liver transplantation

INTRODUCTION

Transplantation among HIV positive patients may be a valuable therapeutic intervention. This study involves an HIV D+/R+ kidney-liver transplantation, where PBMC-associated HIV quasispecies were analyzed in donor and transplant recipients (TR) prior to transplantation and thereafter, together with standard viral monitoring.

METHODS

The donor was a 54 year of age HIV infected woman: kidney and liver recipients were two HIV infected men, aged 49 and 61. HIV quasispecies in PBMC was analyzed by ultra-deep sequencing of V3 env region. During TR follow-up, plasma HIV-1 RNA, HIV-1 DNA in PBMC, analysis of proviral integration sites and drug-resistance genotyping were performed. Other virological and immunological monitoring included CMV and EBV DNA quantification in blood and CD4 T cell counts.

RESULTS

Donor and TR were all ART-HIV suppressed at transplantation. Thereafter, TR maintained a nearly suppressed HIV-1 viremia, but HIV-1 RNA blips and the increase of proviral integration sites in PBMC attested some residual HIV replication. A transient peak in HIV-1 DNA occurred in the liver recipient. No major changes of drug-resistance genotype were detected after transplantation. CMV and EBV transient reactivations were observed only in the kidney recipient, but did not require specific treatment. CD4 counts remained stable. No intermixed quasispecies between donor and TR was observed at transplantation or thereafter. Despite signs of viral evolution in TR, HIV genetic heterogeneity did not increase over the course of the months of follow up.

CONCLUSIONS

No evidence of HIV superinfection was observed in the donor nor in the recipients. The immunosuppressive treatment administrated to TR did not result in clinical relevant viral reactivations.