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Jennings S, Challinor A, Smith P, Macdiarmid JI, Pope E, Chapman S, Bradshaw C, Clark H, Vetter S, Fitton N, King R, Mwamakamba S, Madzivhandila T, Mashingaidze I, Chomba C, Nawiko M, Nyhodo B, Mazibuko N, Yeki P, Kuwali P, Kambwiri A, Kazi V, Kiama A, Songole A, Coskeran H, Quinn C, Sallu S, Dougill A, Whitfield S, Kunin B, Meebelo N, Jamali A, Kantande D, Makundi P, Mbungu W, Kayula F, Walker S, Zimba S, Galani Yamdeu JH, Kapulu N, Galdos MV, Eze S, Tripathi H, Sait S, Kepinski S, Likoya E, Greathead H, Smith HE, Mahop MT, Harwatt H, Muzammil M, Horgan G, Benton T. Stakeholder-driven transformative adaptation is needed for climate-smart nutrition security in sub-Saharan Africa. NATURE FOOD 2024; 5:37-47. [PMID: 38168785 PMCID: PMC10810754 DOI: 10.1038/s43016-023-00901-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/20/2022] [Accepted: 11/15/2023] [Indexed: 01/05/2024]
Abstract
Improving nutrition security in sub-Saharan Africa under increasing climate risks and population growth requires a strong and contextualized evidence base. Yet, to date, few studies have assessed climate-smart agriculture and nutrition security simultaneously. Here we use an integrated assessment framework (iFEED) to explore stakeholder-driven scenarios of food system transformation towards climate-smart nutrition security in Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania and Zambia. iFEED translates climate-food-emissions modelling into policy-relevant information using model output implication statements. Results show that diversifying agricultural production towards more micronutrient-rich foods is necessary to achieve an adequate population-level nutrient supply by mid-century. Agricultural areas must expand unless unprecedented rapid yield improvements are achieved. While these transformations are challenging to accomplish and often associated with increased greenhouse gas emissions, the alternative for a nutrition-secure future is to rely increasingly on imports, which would outsource emissions and be economically and politically challenging given the large import increases required.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stewart Jennings
- Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom.
| | - Andrew Challinor
- Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - Pete Smith
- Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, United Kingdom
| | - Jennie I Macdiarmid
- The Rowett Institute, School of Medicine, Medical Sciences and Nutrition, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, United Kingdom
| | - Edward Pope
- Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom
| | - Sarah Chapman
- Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - Catherine Bradshaw
- Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom
- The Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom
| | - Heather Clark
- Institute of Applied Health Sciences, School of Medicine, Medical Sciences and Nutrition, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, United Kingdom
| | - Sylvia Vetter
- Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, United Kingdom
| | - Nuala Fitton
- Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, United Kingdom
| | - Richard King
- Chatham House, The Royal Institute of International Affairs, London, United Kingdom
| | - Sithembile Mwamakamba
- Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network, Pretoria, South Africa
| | | | - Ian Mashingaidze
- Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network, Pretoria, South Africa
| | | | | | - Bonani Nyhodo
- National Agricultural Marketing Council, Pretoria, South Africa
| | | | - Precious Yeki
- National Agricultural Marketing Council, Pretoria, South Africa
| | | | | | - Vivian Kazi
- Economic and Social Research Foundation, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
| | - Agatha Kiama
- Economic and Social Research Foundation, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
| | - Abel Songole
- Economic and Social Research Foundation, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
| | - Helen Coskeran
- School of Biology, Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - Claire Quinn
- Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - Susannah Sallu
- Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - Andrew Dougill
- Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - Stephen Whitfield
- Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - Bill Kunin
- School of Biology, Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - Nalishebo Meebelo
- Regional Network of Agricultural Policy Research Institutes, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - Andrew Jamali
- Malawi National Planning Commission, Lilongwe, Malawi
| | | | - Prosper Makundi
- Environmental Management Unit, Ministry of Agriculture, Dodoma, Tanzania
| | | | | | - Sue Walker
- Agricultural Research Council, Pretoria, South Africa
- University of the Free State, Bloemfontein, South Africa
| | - Sibongile Zimba
- School of Biology, Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
- Lilongwe University of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Lilongwe, Malawi
| | - Joseph Hubert Galani Yamdeu
- School of Food Science and Nutrition, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
- Section of Natural and Applied Sciences, School of Psychology and Life Sciences, Canterbury Christ Church University, Canterbury, United Kingdom
| | - Ndashe Kapulu
- School of Food Science and Nutrition, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - Marcelo Valadares Galdos
- Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
- Sustainable Soils and Crops, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, United Kingdom
| | - Samuel Eze
- Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
- Department of Agriculture and Environment, Harper Adams University, Newport, United Kingdom
| | - Hemant Tripathi
- School of Biology, Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
- UN Environment Programme, World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC), Cambridge, United Kingdom
| | - Steven Sait
- School of Biology, Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - Stefan Kepinski
- School of Biology, Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - Emmanuel Likoya
- Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - Henry Greathead
- School of Biology, Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - Harriet Elizabeth Smith
- Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
| | - Marcelin Tonye Mahop
- Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
- USAID West Africa Biodiversity and Low Emissions Development (WABiLED) Programme, Accra, Ghana
| | - Helen Harwatt
- Chatham House, The Royal Institute of International Affairs, London, United Kingdom
| | - Maliha Muzammil
- Chatham House, The Royal Institute of International Affairs, London, United Kingdom
| | - Graham Horgan
- Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland, Aberdeen, United Kingdom
| | - Tim Benton
- Chatham House, The Royal Institute of International Affairs, London, United Kingdom
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