Risk Factors and Clinical Impacts of Post-Pancreatectomy Acute Pancreatitis After Pancreaticoduodenectomy: A Single-Center Retrospective Analysis of 298 Patients Based on the ISGPS Definition and Grading System

Machine learning model-based prediction of postpancreatectomy acute pancreatitis following pancreaticoduodenectomy: A retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The International Study Group of Pancreatic Surgery has established the definition and grading system for postpancreatectomy acute pancreatitis (PPAP). There are no established machine learning models for predicting PPAP following pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD).

AIM

To explore the predictive model of PPAP, and test its predictive efficacy to guide the clinical work.

METHODS

Clinical data from consecutive patients who underwent PD between 2016 and 2024 were retrospectively collected. An analysis of PPAP risk factors was performed, various machine learning algorithms [logistic regression, random forest, gradient boosting decision tree, extreme gradient boosting, light gradient boosting machine, and category boosting (CatBoost)] were utilized to develop predictive models. Recursive feature elimination was employed to select several variables to achieve the optimal machine algorithm.

RESULTS

The study included 381 patients, of whom 88 (23.09%) developed PPAP. PPAP patients exhibited a significantly higher incidence of postoperative pancreatic fistula (55.68% vs 14.68%, P < 0.001), grade C postoperative pancreatic fistula (9.09% vs 1.37%, P = 0.001). The CatBoost algorithm outperformed other algorithms with a mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.859 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.814-0.905] in the training cohort and 0.822 (95%CI: 0.717-0.927) in the testing cohort. According to shapley additive explanations analysis, pancreatic texture, main pancreatic duct diameter, body mass index, estimated blood loss, and surgery time were the most important variables based on recursive feature elimination. The CatBoost algorithm based on selected variables demonstrated superior performance, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.837 (95%CI: 0.788-0.886) in the training cohort and 0.812 (95%CI: 0.697-0.927) in the testing cohort.

CONCLUSION

We developed the first machine learning-based predictive model for PPAP following PD. This predictive model can assist surgeons in anticipating and managing this complication proactively.

Extracellular volume fraction derived from dual-energy CT: a potential predictor for acute pancreatitis after pancreatoduodenectomy

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the value of extracellular volume (ECV) fraction and fat fraction (FF) derived from dual- energy CT (DECT) for predicting postpancreatectomy acute pancreatitis (PPAP) after pancreatoduodenectomy (PD).

METHODS

This retrospective study included patients who underwent DECT and PD between April 2022 and September 2022. PPAP was determined according to the International Study Group for Pancreatic Surgery (ISGPS) definition. Iodine concentration (IC) and FF of the pancreatic parenchyma were measured on preoperative DECT. The ECV fraction was calculated from iodine map images of the equilibrium phase. The independent predictors for PPAP were assessed by univariate and multivariable logistic regression analysis and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.

RESULTS

Sixty-nine patients were retrospectively enrolled (median age, 60 years; interquartile range, 55-70 years; 47 men). Of these, nine patients (13.0%) developed PPAP. These patients had lower portal venous phase IC, equilibrium phase IC, FF, and ECV fraction, and higher pancreatic parenchymal-to-portal venous phase IC ratio and pancreatic parenchymal-to-equilibrium phase IC ratio, compared with patients without PPAP. After multivariable analysis, ECV fraction was independently associated with PPAP (odd ratio [OR], 0.87; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.79, 0.96; p < 0.001), with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.839 (sensitivity 100.0%, specificity 58.3%).

CONCLUSIONS

A lower ECV fraction is independently associated with the occurrence of PPAP after PD. ECV fraction may serve as a potential predictor for PPAP after PD.

CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT

DECT-derived ECV fraction of pancreatic parenchyma is a promising biomarker for surgeons to preoperatively identify patients with higher risk for postpancreatectomy acute pancreatitis after PD and offer selective perioperative management.

KEY POINTS

PPAP is a complication of pancreatic surgery, early identification of higher-risk patients allows for risk mitigation. Lower DECT-derived ECV fraction was independently associated with the occurrence of PPAP after PD. DECT aids in preoperative PAPP risk stratification, allowing for appropriate treatment to minimize complications.

Prognostic factors of postoperative morbidity in surgery for resectable pancreatic cancer. Regional institute of neoplastic diseases 'Dr. Luis Pinillos Ganoza' IREN Norte. 2007-2022

Objective

To determine the prognostic factors associated with postoperative morbidity for resectable pancreatic cancer at the Instituto Regional de Enfermedades Neoplásicas del Norte 'Dr. Luis Pinillos Ganoza' - IREN Norte. 2007-2022.

Materials and methods

A study was conducted with a case-based (22 patients) and control (14 patients) design nested in a cohort that included 36 patients who underwent proximal duodenopancreatectomy (Whipple) or distal pancreatectomy for pancreatic cancer.

Results

In the present study, it was found that the total number of living patients represents 86.1% of the total (36 patients). Of the total population, patients who presented only 1 complication were 13.6% and more than 1 complication were 86.4%. It was also found that the most frequent complication in the general population was gastric emptying syndrome, which was present in 50% of all patients. In the bivariate analysis, a highly significant association was observed between the low prognostic nutritional index (p < 0.001, OD = 20.400, CI = 95%: (3.377-123.245)), the type of pancreatic resection (p < 0.001, OR = 52.500, CI = 95%: (5.174-532.669)) and postoperative morbidity. In contrast, no significant association was found between age ≥65 (p = 0.062), diabetes mellitus (p < 0.908), Wirsung diameter (p < 0.432), hospital stay (p < 0.075) and postoperative morbidity. In the multivariate analysis, serum total bilirubin level ≥20 μmol/L (p = 0.778), use of preoperative biliary drainage (p = 0.176), type of pancreatojejunal anastomosis (p = 0.533) and pancreaticogastric anastomosis (p = 0.504) were not statistically significantly associated with postoperative morbidity.

Conclusion

The type of pancreatic resection and the nutritional prognostic index <40.5 are prognostic factors of postoperative morbidity in postoperative patients for resectable pancreatic cancer.

Association of Postoperative Hyperamylasemia With Clinically Relevant Postoperative Pancreatic Fistula in Pancreatoduodenectomy

Background In this study, we aimed to determine the association between postoperative hyperamylasemia (POH) and clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) after pancreatoduodenectomy (PD). Methodology A prospective observational study of 140 consecutive PDs between March 2020 and March 2022 was conducted. POH was defined as an elevation in serum pancreatic amylase levels above the institutional upper limit of normal on postoperative day (POD) 1 (>100 U/L). CR-POPF was defined as the International Study Group of Pancreatic Surgery Grade B or C POPF. The primary outcome was the rate of CR-POPF in the study population. The trial was prospectively registered with Clinicaltrials.gov (NCT04514198). Results In our study, 93 (66.42%) patients had POH (serum amylase >100 U/L). CR-POPF developed in 48 (34.28%) patients: 40 type B and 8 type C. CR-POPF rate was 43.01% (40/93) in patients with POH compared to 17.02% (8/47) in patients without POH (p = 0.0022). Patients with POH had a mean serum amylase of 422.7 ± 358.21 U/L on POD1 compared to 47.2 ± 20.19 U/L in those without POH (p < 0.001). Serum amylase >100 U/L on POD1 was strongly associated with developing CR-POPF (odds ratio = 3.71; 95% confidence interval = 1.31-10.37) on logistic regression, with a sensitivity and specificity of 83.3% and 42.4%, respectively. Blood loss >350 mL, pancreatic duct size <3 mm, and elevated POD1 serum amylase >100 U/L were predictive of CR-POPF on multivariate analysis (p < 0.001). Conclusions An elevated serum amylase on POD1 may help identify patients at risk for developing POPF following PD.

Risk Factors of Postoperative Acute Pancreatitis and Its Impact on the Postoperative Course after Pancreaticoduodenectomy-10 Years of Single-Center Experience

BACKGROUND

Clinically relevant acute postoperative pancreatitis (CR-PPAP) after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) is a complication that may lead to the development of local and systemic consequences. The study aimed to identify risk factors for CR-PPAP and assess the impact of CR-PPAP on the postoperative course after PD.

METHODS

The study retrospectively analyzed data from 428 consecutive patients who underwent PD at a single center between January 2013 and December 2022. The presence of increased amylase activity in plasma, above the upper limit of normal 48 h after surgery, was checked. CR-PPAP was diagnosed when accompanied by disturbing radiological features and/or symptoms requiring treatment. We investigated the relationship between the occurrence of CR-PPAP and the development of postoperative complications after PD, and possible predictors of CR-PPAP.

RESULTS

The postoperative follow-up period was 90 days. Of the 428 patients, 18.2% (n = 78) had CR-PPAP. It was associated with increased rates of CR-POPF, delayed gastric emptying, occurrence of intra-abdominal collections, postoperative hemorrhage, peritonitis, and septic shock. Patients who developed CR-PPAP were more often reoperated (37.17% vs. 6.9%, p < 0.0001)) and had increased postoperative mortality (14.1% vs. 5.74%, p < 0.0001). Soft pancreatic parenchyma, intraoperative blood loss, small diameter of the pancreatic duct, and diagnosis of adenocarcinoma papillae Vateri were independent risk factors for CR-PPAP and showed the best performance in predicting CR-PPAP.

CONCLUSIONS

CR-PPAP is associated with an increased incidence of postoperative complications after PD, worse treatment outcomes, and an increased risk of reoperation and mortality. Pancreatic consistency, intraoperative blood loss, width of the duct of Wirsung, and histopathological diagnosis can be used to assess the risk of CR-PPAP. Amylase activity 48 h after surgery > 161 U/L is highly specific in the diagnosis of CR-PPAP.

Incidence and risk factors of postoperative acute pancreatitis after pancreaticoduodenectomy: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Postoperative acute pancreatitis (POAP) is a specific complication after pancreatectomy. The acute inflammatory response of the residual pancreas may affect the healing of pancreatoenteric anastomoses, leading to postoperative pancreatic fistulas (POPFs), abdominal infections, and even progressive systemic reactions, conditions that negatively affect patients' prognoses and can cause death. However, to the best of our knowledge, no systematic reviews or meta-analytic studies have assessed the incidence and risk factors of POAP after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD).

Method

We searched PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, and Cochrane Library databases for relevant literature describing the outcomes of POAP after PD until November 25, 2022, and we used the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale to assess the quality of the studies. Next, we pooled the incidence of POAP and the odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of the risk factors using a random-effect meta-analysis. I2 tests were used to assess heterogeneity between the studies.

Results

We analyzed data from 7,164 patients after PD from 23 articles that met the inclusion criteria for this study. The subgroup results of the meta-analysis by different POAP diagnostic criteria showed that the incidences of POAP were 15% (95% CI, 5-38) in the International Study Group for Pancreatic Surgery group, 51% (95% CI, 42-60) in the Connor group, 7% (95% CI, 2-24) in the Atlanta group, and 5% (95% CI, 2-14) in the unclear group. Being a woman [OR (1.37, 95% CI, 1.06-1.77)] or having a soft pancreatic texture [OR (2.56, 95% CI, 1.70-3.86)] were risk factors of POAP after PD.

Conclusion

The results showed that POAP was common after PD, and its incidence varied widely according to different definitions. Large-scale reports are still needed, and surgeons should remain aware of this complication.

Systematic Review Registration

identifier: CRD42022375124.

Prediction of postoperative pancreatic fistula and pancreatitis after pancreatoduodenectomy or distal pancreatectomy: A review

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) is the leading cause of morbidity and early mortality in patients undergoing pancreatic resection. In addition, recent studies have identified postoperative acute pancreatitis (POAP) as an independent contributor to morbidity. Most perioperative mitigation strategies experimented for POPF have been shown to be in vain with no consensus on the best perioperative management. Clinical prediction models have been developed with the hope of identifying high POPF risk patients with the leading idea of finding subpopulations possibly benefiting from pre-existing or novel mitigation strategies. The aim of this review was to map out the existing prediction modeling studies to better understand the current stage of POPF prediction modeling, and the methodology behind them.

METHODS

A narrative review of the existing POPF prediction model studies was performed. Studies published before September 2022 were included.

RESULTS

While the number of POPF prediction models for pancreatoduodenectomy has increased, none of the currently existing models stand out from the crowd. For distal pancreatectomy, two unique POPF prediction models exist, but due to their freshness, no further external validation or adoption in clinics or research has been reported. There seems to be a lack of adherence to correct methodology or reporting guidelines in most of the studies, which has rendered external validity-if assessed-low. Few of the most recent studies have demonstrated preoperative assessment of pancreatic aspects from computed tomography (CT) scans to provide relatively strong predictors of POPF.

CONCLUSIONS

Main goal for the future would be to reach a consensus on the most important POPF predictors and prediction model. At their current state, few models have demonstrated adequate transportability and generalizability to be up to the task. Better understanding of POPF pathophysiology and the possible driving force of acute inflammation and POAP might be required before such a prediction model can be accessed.

Prediction of post-operative acute pancreatitis in children with pancreaticobiliary maljunction using machine learning model

PURPOSE

This study aimed to develop a prediction model to identify risk factors for post-operative acute pancreatitis (POAP) in children with pancreaticobiliary maljunction (PBM) by pre-operative analysis of patient variables.

METHODS

Logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models were established using the prospectively collected databases of patients with PBM undergoing surgery which was reviewed in the period comprised between August 2015 and August 2022, at the Children's Hospital of Soochow University. Primarily, the area beneath the receiver-operating curves (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity were used to evaluate the model performance. The model was finally validated using the nomogram and clinical impact curve.

RESULTS

In total, 111 children with PBM met the inclusion criteria, and 21 children suffered POAP. In the validation dataset, LR models showed the highest performance. The risk nomogram and clinical effect curve demonstrated that the LR model was highly predictive.

CONCLUSION

The prediction model based on the LR with a nomogram could be used to predict the risk of POAP in patients with PBM. Protein plugs, age, white blood cell count, and common bile duct diameter were the most relevant contributing factors to the models.