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Mielke SR, Lendzele S, Delgado AH, Abdoulmoumini M, Dickmu S, Garabed R. Patterns of foot-and-mouth disease virus detection in environmental samples in an endemic setting. Front Vet Sci 2023; 10:1157538. [PMID: 37396995 PMCID: PMC10312077 DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2023.1157538] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/02/2023] [Accepted: 05/29/2023] [Indexed: 07/04/2023] Open
Abstract
Foot-and-Mouth Disease virus (FMDV) is endemic in several regions and is a virus that can persist in the environment dependent on pH, relative humidity (RH), temperature, and matrix (i.e., soil, water, or air). Our previously published analysis of available viral persistence data showed that persistence is likely affected by interactions between RH, temperature, and matrix. Understanding these relationships will aid efforts to eliminate FMD, which has significant impacts on economies and food security. In Cameroon, West Africa, the livestock system consists of mobile (transhumant), transboundary trade and sedentary herds. Studying this system can provide information about the patterns of environmental detection of FMDV RNA that may influence approaches to virus elimination on premises during an outbreak. To improve our understanding of these patterns, we collected samples from individuals, vehicles, and along cattle pathways at three sedentary herds beginning on day one of owner-reported outbreaks, ending by day 30, and tested for the presence of FMD viral RNA using rRT-PCR. Our analysis suggests that detection decreases in soil surface samples with increased distance from herd and time from the first report of disease. Whereas time but not distance decreases detection in air samples. Interaction of RH and temperature suggests increased detection at high temperatures (>24°C) and RH (>75%), providing us with new information about the patterns of FMD viral RNA detection in and around cattle herds that could help to inform targeted virus elimination strategies, such as location and application of disinfectants.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sarah R. Mielke
- Department of Veterinary Preventive Medicine, The Ohio State University College of Veterinary Medicine, Columbus, OH, United States
- United States Department of Agriculture’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS), Fort Collins, CO, United States
| | - Sevidzem Lendzele
- Transmissible Diseases Ecology Laboratory, Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Technology and Health Management, Université Libreville Nord, Libreville, Gabon
| | - Amy H. Delgado
- United States Department of Agriculture’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS), Fort Collins, CO, United States
| | - Mamoudou Abdoulmoumini
- School of Veterinary Science and Medicine, University of Ngaoundéré, Ngaoundéré, Adamawa, Cameroon
| | - Simon Dickmu
- The National Veterinary Laboratory (LANAVET), Garoua North, Cameroon
- University of Bamenda, Bambili, Cameroon
| | - Rebecca Garabed
- Department of Veterinary Preventive Medicine, The Ohio State University College of Veterinary Medicine, Columbus, OH, United States
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Conrady B, Mortensen S, Nielsen SS, Houe H, Calvo-Artavia FF, Ellis-Iversen J, Boklund A. Simulation of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Spread and Effects of Mitigation Strategies to Support Veterinary Contingency Planning in Denmark. Pathogens 2023; 12:pathogens12030435. [PMID: 36986357 PMCID: PMC10056164 DOI: 10.3390/pathogens12030435] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/17/2023] [Revised: 03/06/2023] [Accepted: 03/08/2023] [Indexed: 03/12/2023] Open
Abstract
To forge a path towards livestock disease emergency preparedness in Denmark, 15 different strategies to mitigate foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) were examined by modelling epidemics initiated in cattle, pig or small ruminant herds across various production systems located in four different Danish regions (Scenario 1), or in one specific livestock production system within each of the three species geographically distributed throughout Denmark (Scenario 2). When additional mitigation strategies were implemented on top of basic control strategies in the European foot-and-mouth disease spread model (EuFMDiS), no significant benefits were predicted in terms of the number of infected farms, the epidemic control duration, and the total economic cost. Further, the model results indicated that the choice of index herd, the resources for outbreak control, and the detection time of FMD significantly influenced the course of an epidemic. The present study results emphasise the importance of basic mitigation strategies, including an effective back-and-forward traceability system, adequate resources for outbreak response, and a high level of awareness among farmers and veterinarians concerning the detection and reporting of FMD at an early stage of an outbreak for FMD control in Denmark.
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Affiliation(s)
- Beate Conrady
- Department of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, University of Copenhagen, 1870 Frederiksberg C, Denmark
- Correspondence: ; Tel.: +45-3532-2309
| | - Sten Mortensen
- Danish Veterinary and Food Administration, 2600 Glostrup, Denmark
| | - Søren Saxmose Nielsen
- Department of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, University of Copenhagen, 1870 Frederiksberg C, Denmark
| | - Hans Houe
- Department of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, University of Copenhagen, 1870 Frederiksberg C, Denmark
| | | | | | - Anette Boklund
- Department of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, University of Copenhagen, 1870 Frederiksberg C, Denmark
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Abstract
AbstractThis review addresses ways to prepare for and to mitigate effects of biohazards on primary production of crops and livestock. These biohazards can be natural or intentional introductions of pathogens, and they can cause major economic damage to farmers, the agricultural industry, society, and international trade. Agroterrorism is the intentional introduction of animal or plant pathogens into agricultural production systems with the intention to cause socioeconomic harm and generate public fear. Although few acts of agroterrorism are reported, the threat of agroterrorism in Europe is real. New concerns about threats arise from the rapid advancements in biotechnology and emerging technologies. FORSA, an analytical framework for risk and vulnerability analysis, was used to review how to prepare for and mitigate the possible effects of natural or intentional biohazards in agricultural production. Analyzing the effects of a biohazard event involves multiple scientific disciplines. A comprehensive analysis of biohazards therefore requires a systems approach. The preparedness and ability to manage events are strengthened by bolstered farm biosecurity, increased monitoring and laboratory capacity, improved inter-agency communication and resource allocation. The focus of this review is on Europe, but the insights gained have worldwide applications. The analytical framework used here is compared to other frameworks. With climate change, Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine, the supply chains are challenged, and we foresee increasing food prices associated with social tensions. Our food supply chain becomes more fragile with more unknowns, thereby increasing the needs for risk and vulnerability analyses, of which FORSA is one example.
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Exploring the predictive capability of machine learning models in identifying foot and mouth disease outbreak occurrences in cattle farms in an endemic setting of Thailand. Prev Vet Med 2022; 207:105706. [DOI: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2022.105706] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/10/2022] [Revised: 06/09/2022] [Accepted: 07/01/2022] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
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Marschik T, Kopacka I, Stockreiter S, Schmoll F, Hiesel J, Höflechner-Pöltl A, Käsbohrer A, Conrady B. What Are the Human Resources Required to Control a Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreak in Austria? Front Vet Sci 2021; 8:727209. [PMID: 34778427 PMCID: PMC8580879 DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2021.727209] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/18/2021] [Accepted: 10/04/2021] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Contingency planning allows veterinary authorities to prepare a rapid response in the event of a disease outbreak. A recently published foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) simulation study indicated concerns whether capacity was sufficient to control a potential FMD epidemic in Austria. The objectives of the study presented here were to estimate the human resources required to implement FMD control measures and to identify areas of the operational activities that could potentially delay successful control of the disease. The stochastic spatial simulation model EuFMDiS (The European Foot-and-Mouth Disease Spread Model) was used to simulate a potential FMD outbreak and its economic impact, including different control scenarios based on variations of culling, vaccination, and pre-emptive depopulation. In this context, the utilization of human resources was assessed based on the associated EuFMDiS output regarding the performance of operational activities. The assessments show that the number of personnel needed in an outbreak with a stamping-out policy would reach the peak at the end of the second week of control with a median of 540 (257–926) individuals, out of which 31% would be veterinarians. Approximately 58% of these human resources would be attributable to surveillance, followed by staff for cleaning and disinfection activities. Our analysis demonstrates that, of the operational activities, surveillance personnel were the largest factor influencing the magnitude of the outbreak. The aim of the assessment presented here is to assist veterinary authorities in the contingency planning of required human resources to respond effectively to an outbreak of animal diseases such as FMD.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tatiana Marschik
- Unit of Veterinary Public Health and Epidemiology, Institute of Food Safety, Food Technology and Veterinary Public Health, University of Veterinary Medicine, Vienna, Austria.,Division for Animal Health, Austrian Agency for Health and Food Safety, Mödling, Austria
| | - Ian Kopacka
- Division for Data, Statistics and Risk Assessment, Austrian Agency for Health and Food Safety, Graz, Austria
| | - Simon Stockreiter
- Department for Animal Health and Animal Disease Control, Federal Ministry of Labour, Social Affairs, Health and Consumer Protection, Vienna, Austria
| | - Friedrich Schmoll
- Division for Animal Health, Austrian Agency for Health and Food Safety, Mödling, Austria
| | - Jörg Hiesel
- Department of Veterinary Administration, Styrian Provincial Government, Graz, Austria
| | - Andrea Höflechner-Pöltl
- Department for Animal Health and Animal Disease Control, Federal Ministry of Labour, Social Affairs, Health and Consumer Protection, Vienna, Austria
| | - Annemarie Käsbohrer
- Unit of Veterinary Public Health and Epidemiology, Institute of Food Safety, Food Technology and Veterinary Public Health, University of Veterinary Medicine, Vienna, Austria
| | - Beate Conrady
- Unit of Veterinary Public Health and Epidemiology, Institute of Food Safety, Food Technology and Veterinary Public Health, University of Veterinary Medicine, Vienna, Austria.,Department of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.,Complexity Science Hub, Vienna, Austria
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Marschik T, Kopacka I, Stockreiter S, Schmoll F, Hiesel J, Höflechner-Pöltl A, Käsbohrer A, Pinior B. The Epidemiological and Economic Impact of a Potential Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreak in Austria. Front Vet Sci 2021; 7:594753. [PMID: 33521078 PMCID: PMC7838521 DOI: 10.3389/fvets.2020.594753] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/14/2020] [Accepted: 12/10/2020] [Indexed: 01/15/2023] Open
Abstract
An outbreak of foot-and mouth disease (FMD) in an FMD-free country such as Austria would likely have serious consequences for the national livestock sector and economy. The objective of this study was to analyse the epidemiological and economic impact of an FMD outbreak in Austria in order to (i) evaluate the effectiveness of different control measures in two Austrian regions with different livestock structure and density, (ii) analyse the associated costs of the control measures and the losses resulting from trade restrictions on livestock and livestock products and (iii) assess the resources that would be required to control the FMD outbreak. The European Foot-and-Mouth Disease Spread Model (EuFMDiS) was used to simulate a potential FMD outbreak. Based on the epidemiological outputs of the model, the economic impact of the outbreak was assessed. The analysis of the simulations showed that the success of control strategies depends largely on the type of control measures, the geographical location, the availability of sufficient resources, and the speed of intervention. The comparison of different control strategies suggested that from an economic point of view the implementation of additional control measures, such as pre-emptive depopulation of susceptible herds, would be efficient if the epidemic started in an area with high livestock density. Depending on the chosen control measures and the affected region, the majority of the total costs would be attributable to export losses (e.g., each day of an FMD epidemic costs Austria € 9-16 million). Our analysis indicated that the currently estimated resources for surveillance, cleaning, and disinfection during an FMD outbreak in Austria would be insufficient, which would lead to an extended epidemic control duration. We have shown that the control of an FMD outbreak can be improved by implementing a contingency strategy adapted to the affected region and by placing particular focus on an optimal resource allocation and rapid detection of the disease in Austria. The model results can assist veterinary authorities in planning resources and implementing cost-effective control measures for future outbreaks of highly contagious viral diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tatiana Marschik
- Unit of Veterinary Public Health and Epidemiology, Institute of Food Safety, Food Technology and Veterinary Public Health, University of Veterinary Medicine Vienna, Vienna, Austria
- Division for Animal Health, Austrian Agency for Health and Food Safety (AGES), Mödling, Austria
| | - Ian Kopacka
- Division for Data, Statistics and Risk Assessment, Austrian Agency for Health and Food Safety (AGES), Graz, Austria
| | - Simon Stockreiter
- Department for Animal Health and Animal Disease Control, Federal Ministry of Labor, Social Affairs, Health and Consumer Protection, Vienna, Austria
| | - Friedrich Schmoll
- Division for Animal Health, Austrian Agency for Health and Food Safety (AGES), Mödling, Austria
| | - Jörg Hiesel
- Department of Veterinary Administration, Styrian Provincial Government, Graz, Austria
| | - Andrea Höflechner-Pöltl
- Department for Animal Health and Animal Disease Control, Federal Ministry of Labor, Social Affairs, Health and Consumer Protection, Vienna, Austria
| | - Annemarie Käsbohrer
- Unit of Veterinary Public Health and Epidemiology, Institute of Food Safety, Food Technology and Veterinary Public Health, University of Veterinary Medicine Vienna, Vienna, Austria
| | - Beate Pinior
- Unit of Veterinary Public Health and Epidemiology, Institute of Food Safety, Food Technology and Veterinary Public Health, University of Veterinary Medicine Vienna, Vienna, Austria
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Zaheer MU, Salman MD, Steneroden KK, Magzamen SL, Weber SE, Case S, Rao S. Challenges to the Application of Spatially Explicit Stochastic Simulation Models for Foot-and-Mouth Disease Control in Endemic Settings: A Systematic Review. COMPUTATIONAL AND MATHEMATICAL METHODS IN MEDICINE 2020; 2020:7841941. [PMID: 33294003 PMCID: PMC7700052 DOI: 10.1155/2020/7841941] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/12/2020] [Revised: 10/20/2020] [Accepted: 10/30/2020] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Simulation modeling has become common for estimating the spread of highly contagious animal diseases. Several models have been developed to mimic the spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in specific regions or countries, conduct risk assessment, analyze outbreaks using historical data or hypothetical scenarios, assist in policy decisions during epidemics, formulate preparedness plans, and evaluate economic impacts. Majority of the available FMD simulation models were designed for and applied in disease-free countries, while there has been limited use of such models in FMD endemic countries. This paper's objective was to report the findings from a study conducted to review the existing published original research literature on spatially explicit stochastic simulation (SESS) models of FMD spread, focusing on assessing these models for their potential use in endemic settings. The goal was to identify the specific components of endemic FMD needed to adapt these SESS models for their potential application in FMD endemic settings. This systematic review followed the PRISMA guidelines, and three databases were searched, which resulted in 1176 citations. Eighty citations finally met the inclusion criteria and were included in the qualitative synthesis, identifying nine unique SESS models. These SESS models were assessed for their potential application in endemic settings. The assessed SESS models can be adapted for use in FMD endemic countries by modifying the underlying code to include multiple cocirculating serotypes, routine prophylactic vaccination (RPV), and livestock population dynamics to more realistically mimic the endemic characteristics of FMD. The application of SESS models in endemic settings will help evaluate strategies for FMD control, which will improve livestock health, provide economic gains for producers, help alleviate poverty and hunger, and will complement efforts to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.
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Affiliation(s)
- Muhammad Usman Zaheer
- Animal Population Health Institute, Department of Clinical Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins CO 80523, USA
- FMD Project Office, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, ASI Premises, NARC Gate # 2, Park Road, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan
| | - Mo D. Salman
- Animal Population Health Institute, Department of Clinical Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins CO 80523, USA
| | - Kay K. Steneroden
- Animal Population Health Institute, Department of Clinical Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins CO 80523, USA
| | - Sheryl L. Magzamen
- Department of Environmental and Radiological Health Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins CO 80523, USA
| | - Stephen E. Weber
- Animal Population Health Institute, Department of Clinical Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins CO 80523, USA
| | - Shaun Case
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Walter Scott, Jr. College of Engineering, Colorado State University, Fort Collins CO 80521, USA
| | - Sangeeta Rao
- Animal Population Health Institute, Department of Clinical Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins CO 80523, USA
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Yang Q, Gruenbacher DM, Heier Stamm JL, Amrine DE, Brase GL, DeLoach SA, Scoglio CM. Impact of truck contamination and information sharing on foot-and-mouth disease spreading in beef cattle production systems. PLoS One 2020; 15:e0240819. [PMID: 33064750 PMCID: PMC7567383 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0240819] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/25/2019] [Accepted: 10/04/2020] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
As cattle movement data in the United States are scarce due to the absence of mandatory traceability programs, previous epidemic models for U.S. cattle production systems heavily rely on contact rates estimated based on expert opinions and survey data. These models are often based on static networks and ignore the sequence of movement, possibly overestimating the epidemic sizes. In this research, we adapt and employ an agent-based model that simulates beef cattle production and transportation in southwest Kansas to analyze the between-premises transmission of a highly contagious disease, foot-and-mouth disease. First, we assess the impact of truck contamination on the disease transmission with the truck agent following an independent clean-infected-clean cycle. Second, we add an information-sharing functionality such that producers/packers can trace back and forward their trade records to inform their trade partners during outbreaks. Scenario analysis results show that including indirect contact routes between premises via truck movements can significantly increase the amplitude of disease spread, compared with equivalent scenarios that only consider animal movement. Mitigation strategies informed by information sharing can effectively mitigate epidemics, highlighting the benefit of promoting information sharing in the cattle industry. In addition, we identify salient characteristics that must be considered when designing an information-sharing strategy, including the number of days to trace back and forward in the trade records and the role of different cattle supply chain stakeholders. Sensitivity analysis results show that epidemic sizes are sensitive to variations in parameters of the contamination period for a truck or a loading/unloading area of premises, and indirect contact transmission probability and future studies can focus on a more accurate estimation of these parameters.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qihui Yang
- Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Don M. Gruenbacher
- Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS, United States of America
| | - Jessica L. Heier Stamm
- Department of Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS, United States of America
| | - David E. Amrine
- Beef Cattle Institute, College of Veterinary Medicine, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS, United States of America
| | - Gary L. Brase
- Department of Psychological Sciences, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS, United States of America
| | - Scott A. DeLoach
- Department of Computer Science, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS, United States of America
| | - Caterina M. Scoglio
- Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS, United States of America
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Mielke SR, Garabed R. Environmental persistence of foot-and-mouth disease virus applied to endemic regions. Transbound Emerg Dis 2019; 67:543-554. [PMID: 31595659 DOI: 10.1111/tbed.13383] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/05/2019] [Revised: 09/21/2019] [Accepted: 10/03/2019] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
The consequences of foot-and-mouth disease impact regional economies and food security through animal mortality and morbidity, trade restrictions and burdens to veterinary infrastructure. Despite efforts to control the disease, some regions, mostly in warmer climates, persistently report disease outbreaks. Consequently, it is necessary to understand how environmental factors influence transmission, of this economically devastating disease. Extensive research covers basic aetiology and transmission potential of livestock and livestock products for foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV), with a subset evaluating environmental survival. However, this subset, completed in the early to mid-20th century in Northern Europe and the United States, is not easily generalized to today's endemic locations. This review uncovered 20 studies, to assess current knowledge and analyse the effects of environmental variables on FMDV survival, using a Cox proportional hazards (Coxph) model. However, the dataset is limited, for example pH was included in three studies and only five studies reported both relative humidity (RH) and temperature. After dropping pH from the analysis, our results suggest that temperature alone does not describe FMDV survival; instead, interactions between RH and temperature have broader impacts across various conditions. For instance, FMDV is expected to survive longer during the wet season (survival at day 50 is ~90% at 16°C and 86% RH) versus the dry season (survival at day 50 approaches 0% at 16°C and 37.5% RH) or comparatively in the UK versus the Southwestern United States. Additionally, survival on vegetation topped 70% on day 75 when conditions exceeded 20°C with high RH (86%), drastically higher than the survival on inanimate surfaces at the same temperature and RH (~0%). This is important in tropical regions, where high temperatures can persist throughout the year, but RH varies. Therefore, parameter estimates, for disease modelling and control in endemic areas, require environmental survival data from a wider range of conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sarah R Mielke
- Ohio State University College of Veterinary Medicine, Columbus, OH, USA
| | - Rebecca Garabed
- Ohio State University College of Veterinary Medicine, Columbus, OH, USA
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