In silico Comparison of Test-and-Cull Protocols for Bovine Tuberculosis Control in France

Analysis of a multi-type resurgence of Mycobacterium bovis in cattle and badgers in Southwest France, 2007-2019

Although control measures to tackle bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle have been successful in many parts of Europe, this disease has not been eradicated in areas where Mycobacterium bovis circulates in multi-host systems. Here we analyzed the resurgence of 11 M. bovis genotypes (defined based on spoligotyping and MIRU-VNTR) detected in 141 farms between 2007 and 2019, in an area of Southwestern France where wildlife infection was also detected from 2012 in 65 badgers. We used a spatially-explicit model to reconstruct the simultaneous diffusion of the 11 genotypes in cattle farms and badger populations. Effective reproduction number R was estimated to be 1.34 in 2007-2011 indicating a self-sustained M. bovis transmission by a maintenance community although within-species Rs were both < 1, indicating that neither cattle nor badger populations acted as separate reservoir hosts. From 2012, control measures were implemented, and we observed a decrease of R below 1. Spatial contrasts of the basic reproduction ratio suggested that local field conditions may favor (or penalize) local spread of bTB upon introduction into a new farm. Calculation of generation time distributions showed that the spread of M. bovis has been more rapid from cattle farms (0.5-0.7 year) than from badger groups (1.3-2.4 years). Although eradication of bTB appears possible in the study area (since R < 1), the model suggests it is a long-term prospect, because of the prolonged persistence of infection in badger groups (2.9-5.7 years). Supplementary tools and efforts to better control bTB infection in badgers (including vaccination for instance) appear necessary.

Resilience of French cattle farms to bovine tuberculosis detection between 2004 and 2017

France was recognized officially bovine tuberculosis (bTB) free by the European Union in 2001, however an increase of bTB detections has been reported since 2004. Even though the recommended method for bTB control is whole herd depopulation, test-and-cull protocols have been authorized in pilot areas since 2008 and in the rest of France since 2014. BTB impact at the state level and on trade has been thoroughly studied, however the consequences of these control measures at a farm level are poorly understood. We used bovine movement data from the French cattle tracing system and surveillance data from the National reference laboratory to compare time to closure between case farms with a bTB detection and matched control farms between 2004 and 2017 in France. For this purpose, we considered two modes of closure: (i) long-lasting (more than 12 months) depopulation and (ii) change of farm owner. Using a competing risk analysis, we showed that bTB detection significantly increased the odds of long-lasting depopulation (particularly during the first three months after bTB detection) indicating that farmers renounced restocking after the depopulation, whereas it decreased the odds of a change of owner. Larger farms, characterized by an increased average weekly number of cattle, had a lesser risk of long-lasting depopulation. Farms owned by a natural person had an increased risk of closure. We also showed that the possibility to control bTB by test-and-cull protocol decreased the long-lasting depopulation risk. Overall, bTB control measures contribute to reshaping the agricultural landscape by increasing the probability of closure for small vulnerable farms and by favoring large, professionalized and specialized agricultural holdings. Our results also suggest an improvement in control management with the introduction of test-and-cull protocols instead of systematic whole herd depopulation.