Estimation of the Basic Reproduction Numbers of the Subtypes H5N1, H5N8, and H5N6 During the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Epidemic Spread Between Farms

A systematic review of mechanistic models used to study avian influenza virus transmission and control

The global spread of avian influenza A viruses in domestic birds is causing increasing socioeconomic devastation. Various mechanistic models have been developed to better understand avian influenza transmission and evaluate the effectiveness of control measures in mitigating the socioeconomic losses caused by these viruses. However, the results of models of avian influenza transmission and control have not yet been subject to a comprehensive review. Such a review could help inform policy makers and guide future modeling work. To help fill this gap, we conducted a systematic review of the mechanistic models that have been applied to field outbreaks. Our three objectives were to: (1) describe the type of models and their epidemiological context, (2) list estimates of commonly used parameters of low pathogenicity and highly pathogenic avian influenza transmission, and (3) review the characteristics of avian influenza transmission and the efficacy of control strategies according to the mechanistic models. We reviewed a total of 46 articles. Of these, 26 articles estimated parameters by fitting the model to data, one evaluated the effectiveness of control strategies, and 19 did both. Values of the between-individual reproduction number ranged widely: from 2.18 to 86 for highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses, and from 4.7 to 45.9 for low pathogenicity avian influenza viruses, depending on epidemiological settings, virus subtypes and host species. Other parameters, such as the durations of the latent and infectious periods, were often taken from the literature, limiting the models' potential insights. Concerning control strategies, many models evaluated culling (n = 15), while vaccination received less attention (n = 6). According to the articles reviewed, optimal control strategies varied between virus subtypes and local conditions, and depended on the overall objective of the intervention. For instance, vaccination was optimal when the objective was to limit the overall number of culled flocks. In contrast, pre-emptive culling was preferred for reducing the size and duration of an epidemic. Early implementation consistently improved the overall efficacy of interventions, highlighting the need for effective surveillance and epidemic preparedness.

Limited Outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Influenza A(H5N1) in Herring Gull Colony, Canada, 2022

In summer 2022, highly pathogenic influenza A(H5N1) virus reached the herring gull (Larus argentatus subspecies smithsonianus) breeding colony on Kent Island, New Brunswick, Canada. Real-time monitoring revealed a self-limiting outbreak with low mortality. Proactive seabird surveillance is crucial for monitoring such limited outbreaks, protecting seabirds, and tracing zoonotic transmission routes.

Schisandra chinensis (Turcz.) Baill. polysaccharide inhibits influenza A virus in vitro and in vivo

Influenza virus is prone to seasonal spread and widespread outbreaks, which pose important challenges to public health security. Therefore, it is important to effectively prevent and treat influenza virus infection. Schisandra polysaccharide (SPJ) is a polysaccharide derived from the fruit of Schisandra chinensis (Turcz.) Baill. In this study, we evaluated the antiviral activity of SPJ in vitro and in vivo, especially against influenza A virus (IAV) infection. By analyzing SPJ structure and monosaccharide composition, the molecular weight of SPJ was determined to be 115.5 KD, and it is composed of galacturonic acid (89.4%), rhamnose (0.8%), galactose (4.4%), arabinose (3.8%), and glucose (1.7%). Immunofluorescence analysis showed that SPJ treatment reduced the positive rate of viral nucleoproteins in cells, indicating that the compound had an inhibitory effect on influenza virus replication. Furthermore, SPJ therapy improved the survival of infected mice. Lung virus titer assays indicated that SPJ treatment significantly reduced viral loading in the lung tissue of infected mice and alleviated the pathological damage caused by influenza virus infection. Moreover, SPJ reduced cytokine expression during influenza virus challenge. In conclusion, SPJ has anti-influenza virus effects and may have potential as an anti-influenza drug candidate in further clinical studies.

Spatial epidemiology of highly pathogenic avian influenza subtype H5N6 in Gyeonggi Province, South Korea, 2016-2017

Over four months in the winter of 2016-2017, 343 poultry farms in South Korea reported highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N6 occurrences, leading to the culling of 40 million poultry. Our study aimed to describe the spatial epidemiology of the 2016-2017 HPAI H5N6 outbreak in Gyeonggi Province, the most affected area in South Korea, comprising 35.9% (123) of the HPAI-infected poultry farms, to identify spatial risk factors for the increased probability of HPAI H5N6 occurrence, and to delineate areas with the highest likelihood of infection among different target poultry species. Although the poultry density was risk factor for the all species, rice paddy was only identified as risk factor for chicken and duck farms, not other species farms suggesting different biosecurity measures are required depending on the species. Although spatial effects of HPAI occurrence tended to be clustered within 16 km, the cluster range was reduced to 7 km when considering the identified risk factors, indicating a more geographically focused outbreak response when taking risk factors into account. The areas identified with the highest likelihood of infection can provide evidence, with accessibility to policymakers, to improve risk-based surveillance for HPAI. Our findings provide epidemiological understanding helpful in improving surveillance activity and assisting in the design of more cost-effective intervention policies related to future HPAI outbreaks in South Korea. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.