Construction of Life-Cycle Simulation Framework of Chronic Diseases and Their Comorbidities Based on Population Cohort

Comorbidity risk and distribution characteristics of chronic diseases in the elderly population in China

BACKGROUND

The risk of comorbid chronic diseases in elderly people is an important problem affecting their health and quality of life. We analyzed the incidence of chronic diseases for combinations of chronic diseases analyzed.

METHODS

We used the original data to construct hypothetical cohorts of elderly individuals that evolved with age. The complex network was used to reduce the dimensionality of disease. The multistate transition model is used to calculate the incidence of each chronic disease, exploring comorbidity characteristics and rules.

RESULTS

(1) By using complex network, seven chronic diseases were screened out in men, including hypertension, diabetes, heart disease, stroke, chronic lung disease, arthritis and dyslipidemia; six chronic diseases in women showed significant comorbidity except chronic lung disease. (2) Incidence show differences in age and sex; incidence of chronic diseases generally increased with age. (3) The marginal risk increases with the number of basic chronic diseases associated with comorbidities. (4) When hypertension is present as a basic disease, its impact on the risk of other chronic diseases is much less than that of other chronic diseases. (5) When diseases occur as basic chronic diseases, hypertension-heart disease and diabetes-dyslipidemia are combinations that have the greatest impact on each other in men; hypertension-heart disease in women.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of chronic diseases in patients who have chronic diseases and will form comorbidities differs from that in healthy states, and the related effects of different chronic diseases also differ. Among these conditions, hypertension is caused by a special mechanism.