Holistic View of Intuition and Analysis in Leadership Decision-Making and Problem-Solving

The police hunch: the Bayesian brain, active inference, and the free energy principle in action

In the realm of law enforcement, the "police hunch" has long been a mysterious but crucial aspect of decision-making. Drawing on the developing framework of Active Inference from cognitive science, this theoretical article examines the genesis, mechanics, and implications of the police hunch. It argues that hunches - often vital in high-stakes situations - should not be described as mere intuitions, but as intricate products of our mind's generative models. These models, shaped by observations of the social world and assimilated and enacted through active inference, seek to reduce surprise and make hunches an indispensable tool for officers, in exactly the same way that hypotheses are indispensable for scientists. However, the predictive validity of hunches is influenced by a range of factors, including experience and bias, thus warranting critical examination of their reliability. This article not only explores the formation of police hunches but also provides practical insights for officers and researchers on how to harness the power of active inference to fully understand policing decisions and subsequently explore new avenues for future research.

Making sense of complexity: A qualitative 'Framework' analysis of naturopathic case management and clinical reasoning

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The clinical encounter is inherently complex and uncertain. Naturopathic clinical practice is shaped by a traditional philosophy and practice guiding principles, with a therapeutic framework that incorporates a complex inter-systems approach. It is possible that this foundation may orient naturopathic practitioners to manage clinical complexity and uncertainty in a distinct manner. The aim of this study is to explore the perceptions of experienced naturopathic practitioners to the management of clinical complexity within naturopathic care.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Twenty experienced Australian naturopathic practitioners participated across four focus groups, responding to semi-structured questions regarding their clinical reasoning strategies and case management processes. The data were analysed using a seven step Framework analysis method.

RESULTS

Three primary themes were identified: i) patient is encountered as a whole entity, ii) clinical reasoning is ampliative and explicative, and iii) treatment reflects systems thinking. Participants perceived a focus on the connections between various case elements, building a comprehensive internalised schematic of each case. Participants saw treatments as meeting various needs including prevention, symptom alleviation, causal mitigation, and support of innate healing processes.

CONCLUSION

Naturopathic practitioners perceive they clinically embody the traditional holistic philosophy of naturopathy as a systems orientation, incorporating traditional and contemporary bioscience knowledge. This appears to shape a distinct naturopathic case management approach, oriented to working with patients in a complexity-informed manner.

Business Decision-Making and Complex Thinking: A Bibliometric Study

Complex thinking is an important tool for effective decision-making, as it helps people to better understand uncertain situations by considering the multiple variables and relationships involved in a situation, thus being able to identify patterns and connections that would not otherwise be evident. This article presents the results of a bibliometric study to identify academic publications that consider the correlation between decision-making in the business area and complex thinking competency and its sub-competencies. The intention was to have a theoretical horizon that provides a complete overview of the current academic situation regarding the correlation of both professional skills to identify areas of opportunity for new studies. Methodologically, we conducted a literature review using Scopus and Web of Science databases under the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses) protocol from which a sample of 339 articles related to both topics was obtained. R, Rstudio, and Bibliometrix were used for the quantitative analysis of the data. The results showed an academic tendency to associate decision-making in business with critical thinking, paying little attention to the other sub-competencies of complex thinking. Furthermore, we found a concentration of research in specific universities and countries, repeating a tendency to study only a few sub-competencies. Overall, this work sheds light on the broad opportunity to link the complex thinking macro-competency with decision-making in business, to provide more extraordinary skills and tools to future professionals.