Modeling Paratuberculosis Transmission in a Small Dairy Herd Typical of Slovenia Suggests That Different Models Should Be Used to Study Disease Spread in Herds of Different Sizes

Investigating the Prevalence of Paratuberculosis in Hungarian Large-Scale Dairy Herds and the Success of Control Measures over Four Years

Paratuberculosis (PTB) is a severe, slow-developing, untreatable disease of ruminants. Worldwide, the disease affects more than 50% of herds in the dairy industry, and causes substantial economic losses for dairy producers. Diagnostic tests show limited sensitivity, especially in the early stages of the disease. Our study aimed to investigate the seroprevalence of Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP) in large-scale dairy herds in Hungary, in association with the self-reported presence or absence of screening and intervention measures against MAP transmission. We processed data from 42 large-scale Holstein Friesian farms in Hungary between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2021. An average of 32,009 (min.: 31,702; max.: 32,207) animals were blood sampled yearly (127,372 in total during the four years), corresponding to 15% of the Hungarian dairy cattle population. All female cattle older than 2 years were blood sampled on the farms enroled in the study. The samples were tested using a commercial ELISA (IDEXX paratuberculosis screening Ab test). Farm managers were interviewed about their on-farm diagnostic and intervention approaches using a uniform questionnaire, including questions on the level of awareness, frequency of ELISA and PCR testing, and their strategies for culling adult animals and reducing transmission to newborn calves. By comparing the annual rate of change in seroprevalence and the amount of change observed during the four-year period, we concluded that test-and-cull strategies implemented in parallel with newborn calf management that aimed at preventing MAP transmission were superior to test-and-cull strategies alone; moreover, fortifying culling decision making via additional ELISA and PCR tests is superior to using a single ELISA result. For farms that carried out a complex program with both "test-and-cull" and proper newborn calf management, there was a proportional reduction in apparent seroprevalence at an average of 22.8% per year. Fifteen of the sampled farms had no measures in place to control paratuberculosis. On these farms, the seroprevalence increased by 12.1% per year on average.

Modelling transmission of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis between Irish dairy cattle herds

Bovine paratuberculosis is an endemic disease caused by Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (Map). Map is mainly transmitted between herds through movement of infected but undetected animals. Our objective was to investigate the effect of observed herd characteristics on Map spread on a national scale in Ireland. Herd characteristics included herd size, number of breeding bulls introduced, number of animals purchased and sold, and number of herds the focal herd purchases from and sells to. We used these characteristics to classify herds in accordance with their probability of becoming infected and of spreading infection to other herds. A stochastic individual-based model was used to represent herd demography and Map infection dynamics of each dairy cattle herd in Ireland. Data on herd size and composition, as well as birth, death, and culling events were used to characterize herd demography. Herds were connected with each other through observed animal trade movements. Data consisted of 13 353 herds, with 4 494 768 dairy female animals, and 72 991 breeding bulls. We showed that the probability of an infected animal being introduced into the herd increases both with an increasing number of animals that enter a herd via trade and number of herds from which animals are sourced. Herds that both buy and sell a lot of animals pose the highest infection risk to other herds and could therefore play an important role in Map spread between herds.

Quantitative Risk Assessment of Exposure to Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) via Different Types of Milk for the Slovenian Consumer

This study aimed to assess the risk of exposure to Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) via milk for the Slovenian consumer. MAP is suspected to be associated with several diseases in humans, therefore the risk of exposure should be better understood. The primary source of MAP for humans is thought to be cattle, in which MAP causes paratuberculosis or Johne’s disease. We developed a stochastic quantitative risk assessment model using Monte Carlo simulations. Considering the assumptions and uncertainties, we estimated the overall risk of exposure to MAP via milk to be low. For people consuming raw milk from MAP positive farms, the risk was high. On-farm pasteurisation reduced the risk considerably, but not completely. The risk of exposure via pasteurised retail milk was most likely insignificant. However, with a higher paratuberculosis prevalence the risk would also increase. Given the popularity of raw milk vending machines and homemade dairy products, this risk should not be ignored. To reduce the risk, consumers should heat raw milk before consumption. To prevent a potential public health scare and safeguard farmers’ livelihoods, a reduction in paratuberculosis prevalence should be sought. Our results show that culling clinically infected cows was insufficient to reduce milk contamination with MAP.