Heatwave Damage Prediction Using Random Forest Model in Korea

Leveraging data science and machine learning for urban climate adaptation in two major African cities: a HE2AT Center study protocol

INTRODUCTION

African cities, particularly Abidjan and Johannesburg, face challenges of rapid urban growth, informality and strained health services, compounded by increasing temperatures due to climate change. This study aims to understand the complexities of heat-related health impacts in these cities. The objectives are: (1) mapping intraurban heat risk and exposure using health, socioeconomic, climate and satellite imagery data; (2) creating a stratified heat-health forecast model to predict adverse health outcomes; and (3) establishing an early warning system for timely heatwave alerts. The ultimate goal is to foster climate-resilient African cities, protecting disproportionately affected populations from heat hazards.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The research will acquire health-related datasets from eligible adult clinical trials or cohort studies conducted in Johannesburg and Abidjan between 2000 and 2022. Additional data will be collected, including socioeconomic, climate datasets and satellite imagery. These resources will aid in mapping heat hazards and quantifying heat-health exposure, the extent of elevated risk and morbidity. Outcomes will be determined using advanced data analysis methods, including statistical evaluation, machine learning and deep learning techniques.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study has been approved by the Wits Human Research Ethics Committee (reference no: 220606). Data management will follow approved procedures. The results will be disseminated through workshops, community forums, conferences and publications. Data deposition and curation plans will be established in line with ethical and safety considerations.

Revisiting the importance of temperature, weather and air pollution variables in heat-mortality relationships with machine learning

Extreme heat events have significant health impacts that need to be adequately quantified in the context of climate change. Traditionally, heat-health association methods have relied on statistical models using a single air temperature index, without considering other heat-related variables that may influence the relationship and their potentially complex interactions. This study aims to introduce and compare different machine learning (ML) models, which naturally consider interactions between predictors and non-linearities, to re-examine the importance of temperature, weather and air pollution predictors in modeling the heat-mortality relationship. ML approaches based on tree ensembles and neural networks, as well as non-linear statistical models, were used to model the heat-mortality relationship in the two most populated metropolitan areas of the province of Quebec, Canada. The models were calibrated using a comprehensive database of heat-related predictors including various lagged temperature indices, temperature variations, meteorological and air pollution variables. Performance was evaluated based on out-of-sample summer mortality predictions. For the two studied regions, models relying only on lagged temperature indices performed better, or equally well, than models considering more heat-related predictors such as temperature variations, weather and air pollution variables. The temperature index with the best performance differed by region, but both mean temperature and humidex were among the best indices. In terms of modeling approaches, non-linear statistical models were as competent as more advanced ML models for predicting out-of-sample summer mortality. This research validated the current use of non-linear statistical models with the appropriate lagged temperature index to model the heat-mortality relationship. Although ML models have not improved the performance of all-cause mortality modeling, these approaches should continue to be explored, particularly for other health effects that may be more directly linked to heat exposure and, in the future, when more data become available.

A systematic literature review on the use of big data analytics in humanitarian and disaster operations

At the start of this review, 168 million individuals required humanitarian assistance, at the conclusion of the research, the number had risen to 235 million. Humanitarian aid is critical not just for dealing with a pandemic that occurs once every century, but more for assisting amid civil conflicts, surging natural disasters, as well as other kinds of emergencies. Technology's dependability to support humanitarian and disaster operations has never been more pertinent and significant than it is right now. The ever-increasing volume of data, as well as innovations in the field of data analytics, present an incentive for the humanitarian sector. Given that the interaction between big data and humanitarian and disaster operations is crucial in the coming days, this systematic literature review offers a comprehensive overview of big data analytics in a humanitarian and disaster setting. In addition to presenting the descriptive aspects of the literature reviewed, the results explain review of existent reviews, the current state of research by disaster categories, disaster phases, disaster locations, and the big data sources used. A framework is also created to understand why researchers employ various big data sources in different crisis situations. The study, in particular, uncovered a considerable research disparity in the disaster group, disaster phase, and disaster regions, emphasising how the focus is on reactionary interventions rather than preventative approaches. These measures will merely compound the crisis, and so is the reality in many COVID-19-affected countries. Implications for practice and policy-making are also discussed.

Special Issue on Applied Machine Learning

Machine learning (ML) is one of the most exciting fields of computing today [...]