Global Solar Radiation Transfer and Its Loss in the Atmosphere

Ensemble Machine-Learning Models for Accurate Prediction of Solar Irradiation in Bangladesh

Improved irradiance forecasting ensures precise solar power generation forecasts, resulting in smoother operation of the distribution grid. Empirical models are used to estimate irradiation using a wide range of data and specific national or regional parameters. In contrast, algorithms based on Artificial Intelligence (AI) are becoming increasingly popular and effective for estimating solar irradiance. Although there has been significant development in this area elsewhere, employing an AI model to investigate irradiance in Bangladesh is limited. This research forecasts solar radiation in Bangladesh using ensemble machine-learning models. The meteorological data collected from 32 stations contain maximum temperature, minimum temperature, total rain, humidity, sunshine, wind speed, cloud coverage, and irradiance. Ensemble machine-learning algorithms including Adaboost regression (ABR), gradient-boosting regression (GBR), random forest regression (RFR), and bagging regression (BR) are developed to predict solar irradiance. With the default parameters, the GBR provides the best performance as it has the lowest standard deviation of errors. Then, the important hyperparameters of the GRB are tuned with the grid-search algorithms to further improve the prediction accuracy. On the testing dataset, the optimized GBR has the highest coefficient of determination (R2) performance, with a value of 0.9995. The same approach also has the lowest root mean squared error (0.0007), mean absolute percentage error (0.0052), and mean squared logarithmic error (0.0001), implying superior performance. The absolute error of the prediction lies within a narrow range, indicating good performance. Overall, ensemble machine-learning models are an effective method for forecasting irradiance in Bangladesh. They can attain high accuracy and robustness and give significant information for the assessment of solar energy resources.

Long-Term Variations in Global Solar Radiation and Its Interaction with Atmospheric Substances at Qomolangma

An empirical model to estimate global solar radiation was developed at Qomolangma Station using observed solar radiation and meteorological parameters. The predicted hourly global solar radiation agrees well with observations at the ground in 2008–2011. This model was used to calculate global solar radiation at the ground and its loss in the atmosphere due to absorbing and scattering substances in 2007–2020. A sensitivity analysis shows that the responses of global solar radiation to changes in water vapor and scattering factors (expressed as water-vapor pressure and the attenuation factor, AF, respectively) are nonlinear, and global solar radiation is more sensitive to changes in scattering than to changes in absorption. Further applying this empirical model, the albedos at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and the surface in 2007–2020 were computed and are in line with satellite-based retrievals. During 2007–2020, the mean estimated annual global solar radiation increased by 0.22% per year, which was associated with a decrease in AF of 1.46% and an increase in water-vapor pressure of 0.37% per year. The annual mean air temperature increased by about 0.16 °C over the 14 years. Annual mean losses of solar radiation caused by absorbing and scattering substances and total loss were 2.55, 0.64, and 3.19 MJ m⁻², respectively. The annual average absorbing loss was much larger than the scattering loss; their contributions to the total loss were 77.23% and 22.77%, indicating that absorbing substances play significant roles. The annual absorbing loss increased by 0.42% per year, and scattering and total losses decreased by 2.00% and 0.14% per year, respectively. The estimated and satellite-derived annual albedos increased at the TOA and decreased at the surface. This study shows that solar radiation and its interactions with atmospheric absorbing and scattering substances have played key but different roles in regional climate and climate change at the three poles.

Long-Term Variations of Global Solar Radiation and Its Potential Effects at Dome C (Antarctica)

An empirical model to predict hourly global solar irradiance under all-sky conditions as a function of absorbing and scattering factors has been applied at the Dome C station in the Antarctic, using measured solar radiation and meteorological variables. The calculated hourly global solar irradiance agrees well with measurements at the ground in 2008–2011 (the model development period) and at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). This model is applied to compute global solar irradiance at the ground and its extinction in the atmosphere caused by absorbing and scattering substances during the 2006–2016 period. A sensitivity study shows that the responses of global solar irradiance to changes in water vapor and scattering factors (expressed by water vapor pressure and S/G, respectively; S and G are diffuse and global solar irradiance, respectively) are nonlinear and negative, and that global solar irradiance is more sensitive to changes in scattering than to changes in water vapor. Applying this empirical model, the albedos at the TOA and the surface in 2006–2016 are estimated and found to agree with the satellite-based retrievals. During 2006–2016, the annual mean observed and estimated global solar exposures decreased by 0.05% and 0.09%, respectively, and the diffuse exposure increased by 0.68% per year, associated with the yearly increase of the S/G ratio by 0.57% and the water vapor pressure by 1.46%. The annual mean air temperature increased by about 1.80 °C over the ten years, and agrees with the warming trends for all of Antarctica. The annual averages were 316.49 Wm−2 for the calculated global solar radiation, 0.332 for S/G, −46.23 °C for the air temperature and 0.10 hPa for the water vapor pressure. The annual mean losses of solar exposure due to absorbing and scattering substances and the total loss were 4.02, 0.19 and 4.21 MJ m−2, respectively. The annual mean absorbing loss was much larger than the scattering loss; their contributions to the total loss were 95.49% and 4.51%, respectively, indicating that absorbing substances are dominant and play essential roles. The annual absorbing, scattering and total losses increased by 0.01%, 0.39% and 0.28% per year, respectively. The estimated and satellite-retrieved annual albedos increased at the surface. The mechanisms of air-temperature change at two pole sites, as well as a mid-latitude site, are discussed.

The Solar Radiation Climate of Greece

The solar radiation climate of Greece is investigated by using typical meteorological years (TMYs) at 43 locations in Greece based on a period of 10 years (2007–2016). These TMYs include hourly values of global, Hg, and diffuse, Hd, horizontal irradiances from which the direct, Hb, horizontal irradiance is estimated. Use of the diffuse fraction, kd, and the definition of the direct-beam fraction, kb, is made. Solar maps of annual mean Hg, Hd, kd, and kb are prepared over Greece under clear and all skies, which show interesting but explainable patterns. Additionally, the intra-annual and seasonal variabilities of these parameters are presented and regression equations are provided. It is found that Hb has a negative linear relationship with kd; the same applies to Hg with respect to kd or with respect to the latitude of the site. It is shown that kd (kb) can reflect the scattering (absorption) effects of the atmosphere on solar radiation, and, therefore, this parameter can be used as a scattering (absorption) index. An analysis shows that the influence of solar variability (sunspot cycle) on the Hg levels over Athens in the period 1953–2018 was less dominant than the anthropogenic (air-pollution) footprint that caused the global dimming effect.

Long-Term Variations of Global Solar Radiation and Atmospheric Constituents at Sodankylä in the Arctic

An empirical model of global solar irradiance (EMGSI) under all sky conditions was developed by using solar radiation and meteorological parameters at Sodankylä. The calculated hourly global solar irradiance is in agreement with that observed at the ground during 2008–2011 and at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). This model is used to calculate the global solar irradiance at the ground and its attenuation in the atmosphere due to absorbing and scattering substances in 2000–2018. The sensitivity test indicates that the responses of global solar irradiance to changes in water vapor and scattering factors are nonlinear and negative, and global solar irradiance is more sensitive to changes in scattering (expressed by the scattering factor S/G, S and G are diffuse and global solar radiation, respectively) than to changes in water vapor. Using this empirical model, we calculated the albedos at the TOA and the surface, which are in agreement with the satellite-retrieved values. A good relationship between S/G and aerosol optical depth (AOD) was determined and used to estimate AOD in 2000–2018. An empirical model for estimation of tropospheric NO2 vertical column density (VCD) was also developed and used to calculate tropospheric NO2 VCD in 2000–2018. During 2000–2018, the estimated global solar irradiance decreased by 0.92%, and diffuse irradiance increased by 1.28% per year, which is ascribed to the increases of S/G (1.73%) and water vapor (0.43%). Annual surface air temperature increases by 0.07 °C per year. Annual mean loss of global solar irradiance caused by absorbing and scattering substances and total loss are 1.94, 1.17 and 3.11 MJ m−2, respectively. Annual mean losses of absorbing and scattering global solar irradiance show negative and positive trends, respectively, and the annual total loss increases by 0.24% per year. Annual mean losses due to absorption were much larger than those due to scattering. The calculated albedos at the TOA are smaller than at the surface. The calculated and satellite-retrieved annual albedos decrease at the TOA and increase at the surface. During 2000–2018, annual means of the AOD and the tropospheric NO2 VCD increased by 8.23% and 0.03% per year, respectively.

O3 Concentration and Its Relation with BVOC Emissions in a Subtropical Plantation

An empirical model of O3 is developed using the measurements of emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs), O3 concentration, global solar radiation, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and meteorological variables in a subtropical Pinus plantation, China, during 2013–2016. In view of the different structures of isoprene and monoterpenes, two empirical models of O3 concentration are developed, considering PAR absorption and scattering due to gases, liquids and particles (GLPs), as well as PAR attenuation caused by O3 and BVOCs. The estimated O3 is in agreement with the observations, and validation of the O3 empirical model is conducted. O3 concentrations are more sensitive to changes in PAR and water vapor than S/Q (horizontal diffuse to global solar radiation) and BVOC emissions. O3 is positive to changes in isoprene emission at low light and high GLPs, or negative at high light and low GLPs; O3 is negative to changes in monoterpene emissions. O3 are positive with the changes of PAR, water vapor and S/Q. It is suggested to control human-induced high BVOC emissions, regulate plant cutting, and reduce NOx and SO2 emissions more strictly than ever before. There are inverted U-shape interactions between O3 and its driving factors, and S/Q controls their turning points.