Combinational Optimization of the WRF Physical Parameterization Schemes to Improve Numerical Sea Breeze Prediction Using Micro-Genetic Algorithm

A Multi-Hour Ahead Wind Power Forecasting System Based on a WRF-TOPSIS-ANFIS Model

Wind is a renewable and green energy source that is vital for sustainable human development. Wind variability implies that wind power is random, intermittent, and volatile. For the reliable, stable, and secure operation of an electrical grid incorporating wind power systems, a multi-hour ahead wind power forecasting system comprising a physics-based model, a multi-criteria decision making scheme, and two artificial intelligence models was proposed. Specifically, a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to produce wind speed forecasts. A technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) scheme was employed to construct a 5-in-1 (ensemble) WRF model relying on 1334 initial ensemble members. Two adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) models were utilised to correct the wind speed forecasts and determine a power curve model converting the improved wind speed forecasts to wind power forecasts. Moreover, three common statistics-based forecasting models were chosen as references for comparing their predictive performance with that of the proposed WRF-TOPSIS-ANFIS model. Using a set of historical wind data obtained from a wind farm in China, the WRF-TOPSIS-ANFIS model was shown to provide good wind speed and power forecasts for 30-min to 24-h time horizons. This paper demonstrates that the novel forecasting system has excellent predictive performance and is of practical relevance.

Performance Evaluation of Planetary Boundary Layer Schemes in Simulating Structures of Wintertime Lower Troposphere in Seoul Using One-Hour Interval Radiosonde Observation

We investigated the structures of the wintertime lower troposphere in Seoul, South Korea on 17 and 18 January 2017 by performing 1 h interval radiosonde observation and numerical simulations. In the daytime on 17 January, the height of the convective boundary layer (CBL) sharply and quickly increased when the residual layer became a part of the CBL. From the afternoon on 17 January, moist air with clouds began to substantially intrude in the lower troposphere in Seoul, and radiative heating/cooling weakened. As a result, the mixing of air in the lower troposphere was inhibited and the vertical gradients of potential temperature and water vapor mixing ratio changed little on 18 January. We evaluated the performance of four planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes (the Yonsei University (YSU), Mellor–Yamada–Janjić (MYJ), Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino (MYNN), and Asymmetric Convective Model version 2 (ACM2) schemes) coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting model in simulating the structures of the lower troposphere against 1 h interval radiosonde observation. The general tendencies of the air temperature and wind speed in the lower troposphere were well-reproduced in the four simulations. However, the sharp increase in the CBL height did not appear in the four simulations, implying that the process of the residual layer becoming a part of the CBL in the daytime is not well-parameterized. Additionally, the simulated water vapor mixing ratio near the surface was smaller compared with the observation. We found that small-scale turbulence in the CBL, which mixes advected air and pre-existing air, was not reproduced well by the PBL parameterization schemes. Compared with the other simulations, the most accurate air temperature and wind speed were reproduced in the simulation with the MYJ scheme, while the CBL development and moisture advection were reproduced relatively well in the simulation with the MYNN scheme.