Surface Heat Fluxes over the Northern Arabian Gulf and the Northern Red Sea: Evaluation of ECMWF-ERA5 and NASA-MERRA2 Reanalyses

Recent and projected changes in climate patterns in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region

Observational and reanalysis datasets reveal a northward shift of the convective regions over northern Africa in summer and an eastward shift in winter in the last four decades, with the changes in the location and intensity of the thermal lows and subtropical highs also modulating the dust loading and cloud cover over the Middle East and North Africa region. A multi-model ensemble from ten models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-sixth phase gives skillful simulations when compared to in-situ measurements and generally captures the trends in the ERA-5 data over the historical period. For the most extreme climate change scenario and towards the end of the twenty-first century, the subtropical highs are projected to migrate poleward by 1.5°, consistent with the projected expansion of the Hadley Cells, with a weakening of the tropical easterly jet in the summer by up to a third and a strengthening of the subtropical jet in winter typically by 10% except over the eastern Mediterranean where the storm track is projected to shift polewards. The length of the seasons is projected to remain about the same, suggesting the warming is likely to be felt uniformly throughout the year.

Satellite Observations of Wind Wake and Associated Oceanic Thermal Responses: A Case Study of Hainan Island Wind Wake

The wind wake on the lee side of Hainan Island in the winter covers the southwest entrance of Beibu Gulf (or Gulf of Tonkin) and is essential to regional ocean dynamics. Using multiple satellite observations including advanced synthetic aperture radar (ASAR), we revisited the wake process during the winter of 2011. Asymmetric oceanic thermal responses were found with a warm band expanding northwestwardly while a cold tongue formed to the southeast. Combining satellite observations, model simulations, and reanalysis data, heat advection terms (ADV) are reconstructed and compared to air-sea heat flux terms. The observed thermal evolution process across the wake footprint is closely related to the balanced spatial variability from the Ekman ADV, the barotropic geostrophic ADV, and the latent heat flux (LHF), which are all on the order of 10−5 K·m·s−1. Specifically, the Ekman ADV tends to heat the northwestern side of the wake and cool the southeastern side, while the geostrophic ADV compensates with the Ekman ADV across the wake footprint. This study reveals detailed oceanic responses associated with the wind wake and clarifies the contribution of ADV to the asymmetric spatial thermal variabilities. The identified role of heat advection on a sub-seasonal timescale may further benefit the understanding of regional oceanic dynamics.