Saharan Hot and Dry Sirocco Winds Drive Extreme Fire Events in Mediterranean Tunisia (North Africa)

Co-occurrence of marine and atmospheric heatwaves with drought conditions and fire activity in the Mediterranean region

Climate change has become a major concern in the twenty-first century, leading to the amplification of extreme events and, consequently, to severe impacts on society, economy and ecosystems. Heatwave conditions in particular, often coupled with extended periods of dryness, have an important contribution in exacerbating rural fires. Here, we propose to analyse the co-occurring interplay between atmospheric heatwaves and droughts in southern Europe, and marine heatwaves in the East Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea, between 2001 and 2022, highlighting their linkage to wildfires, on both an individual and compound approach. Positive correlations between air and sea temperatures and negative correlations between air temperature and precipitation values were found. Our analysis reveals that severe wildfires are mostly associated with reduced precipitation and/or elevated air temperatures during the summer season, alongside heightened sea surface temperatures. Marine hot (drier) conditions are prevalent for months in which burned areas remain below (above) the 80th percentile. Months marked by higher fire activity are predominantly associated with extreme climatic conditions, showcasing a substantial occurrence of compound events. This study highlights the potential of considering both land-based atmospheric and marine conditions when exploring compound extremes, crucial for mitigating climatic disasters. Moreover, it highlights the role played by compound extreme events in fire management strategies, particularly considering the present context of climate change and the increasing frequency and severity of extreme events threatening ecosystem stability.

Examining temporal trends in heavy metal levels to analyze sediment pollution dynamics in the Saida urban watershed (N-W Algeria)

The study focuses on current pollution in the Saïda basin, a semi-arid region in north-western Algeria. By analyzing sediments, the study provides interesting results on urban pollution and its environmental impact. The research consists of two main phases, each addressing different aspects of pollution. In the first phase, different pollution indicators are used to analyze heavy metals and organic pollutants in urban drainage sediments. The results are compared with sediment quality guidelines, regulatory thresholds, and local and international references. Most of the metallic contaminants exceed the toxicity levels established by the continental crust and sediment quality guidelines, suggesting an anthropogenic origin. In addition, contamination indices show significant accumulation. In this context, the results highlight the importance of accumulation and transport processes in urban sediments. Hydrological parameters significantly influence heavy metal distribution mechanisms. Remarkable variations between copper (Cu) and lead (Pb) suggest a combined or singular source during transport. Conversely, chromium (Cr), nickel (Ni), and iron (Fe) are mainly derived from natural lithological sources. Cadmium (Cd) is associated with anthropogenic sources related to the agricultural use of phosphate fertilizers, whereas zinc (Zn) is mainly derived from physical corrosion processes. In the second phase, a combined descriptive and multivariate statistical analysis examines the mobility and distribution of heavy metals and their relationships with organic matter (OM) over time. Pronounced temporal variations in Cd, Zn, and Cu concentrations are attributed to human activities. Strong correlations exist between OM and cobalt (Co), Cu and Pb, confirming the ability of OM to adsorb these metals under specific geochemical conditions associated with waste disposal. Conversely, Zn, Cd, Cr, and Ni show weak or negative correlations with OM, suggesting diverse sources, including potential agricultural, industrial, and natural origins. The dendrogram confirms the existence of previously identified contaminant groups, suggesting common sources and potential co-occurrence patterns. This analysis highlights the role of the drainage network as a physico-chemical reactor in the mobilization of contaminants. It underlines the importance of sediment interactions in urban pollution processes. Finally, recommendations are proposed to ensure effective pollution control and remediation. PRACTITIONER POINTS: Useful information on pollution and its environmental impact is provided by the analysis of sediments in the urban basin of Saida (NW-Algeria). The results of this study indicate high levels of heavy metals in the sediments, in excess of toxicity limits, and evidence of anthropogenic sources. Temporal variations in metal concentrations indicate the influence of human activities. The study has made it possible to identify the sources, to understand the mobility and distribution, and to control the contamination by heavy metals in the urban sediments. Drainage system serves as a pathway for dispersing contaminants.

High-resolution mapping of wildfire drivers in California based on machine learning

Wildfires are important natural disturbances of ecosystems; however, they threaten the sustainability of ecosystems, climate and humans worldwide. It is vital to quantify and map the controlling drivers of wildfires for effective wildfire prediction and risk management. However, high-resolution mapping of wildfire drivers remains challenging. Here we established machine-learning (Random Forests) models using 23 climate and land surface variables as model inputs to reconstruct the spatial variability and seasonality of wildfire occurrence and extent in California. The importance of individual drivers was then quantified based on the Shapley value method. Thus, we provided spatially resolved maps of wildfire drivers at high resolutions up to 0.004° × 0.004°. The results indicated that precipitation and soil moisture are the major drivers dominating 37% of the total burnt area for large and extreme wildfires in summer and 63% in autumn, while elevation plays a major role for 15-58% of burnt areas in small wildfires in all seasons. Winds are also an important contributor to summer wildfires, accounting for 41% of large and extreme burnt areas. This study enhanced our knowledge of spatial variability of wildfire drivers across diverse landscapes in a fine-scale mapping, providing valuable perspectives and case studies for other regions of the world with frequently occurred wildfire.

Increased likelihood of heat-induced large wildfires in the Mediterranean Basin

Wildfire activity is expected to increase across the Mediterranean Basin because of climate change. However, the effects of future climate change on the combinations of atmospheric conditions that promote wildfire activity remain largely unknown. Using a fire-weather based classification of wildfires, we show that future climate scenarios point to an increase in the frequency of two heat-induced fire-weather types that have been related to the largest wildfires in recent years. Heat-induced fire-weather types are characterized by compound dry and warm conditions occurring during summer heatwaves, either under moderate (heatwave type) or intense (hot drought type) drought. The frequency of heat-induced fire-weather is projected to increase by 14% by the end of the century (2071–2100) under the RCP4.5 scenario, and by 30% under the RCP8.5, suggesting that the frequency and extent of large wildfires will increase throughout the Mediterranean Basin.