Climate Perspectives in the Intra–Americas Seas

Process-Informed Subsampling Improves Subseasonal Rainfall Forecasts in Central America

Subseasonal rainfall forecast skill is critical to support preparedness for hydrometeorological extremes. We assess how a process-informed evaluation, which subsamples forecasting model members based on their ability to represent potential predictors of rainfall, can improve monthly rainfall forecasts within Central America in the following month, using Costa Rica and Guatemala as test cases. We generate a constrained ensemble mean by subsampling 130 members from five dynamic forecasting models in the C3S multimodel ensemble based on their representation of both (a) zonal wind direction and (b) Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), at the time of initialization. Our results show in multiple months and locations increased mean squared error skill by 0.4 and improved detection rates of rainfall extremes. This method is transferrable to other regions driven by slowly-changing processes. Process-informed subsampling is successful because it identifies members that fail to represent the entire rainfall distribution when wind/SST error increases.

Current and Future Climate Extremes Over Latin America and Caribbean: Assessing Earth System Models from High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP)

Extreme temperature and precipitation events are the primary triggers of hazards, such as heat waves, droughts, floods, and landslides, with localized impacts. In this sense, the finer grids of Earth System models (ESMs) could play an essential role in better estimating extreme climate events. The performance of High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) models is evaluated using the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) over the 1981-2014 period and future changes (2021-2050) under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP5-8.5, over ten regions in Latin America and the Caribbean. The impact of increasing the horizontal resolution in estimating extreme climate variability on a regional scale is first compared against reference gridded datasets, including reanalysis, satellite, and merging products. We used three different groups based on the resolution of the model's grid (sg): (i) low (0.8° ≤ sg ≤ 1.87°), (ii) intermediate (0.5° ≤ sg ≤ 0.7°), and (iii) high (0.23° ≥ sg ≤ 0.35°). Our analysis indicates that there was no clear evidence to support the posit that increasing horizontal resolution improves model performance. The ECMWF-IFS family of models appears to be a plausible choice to represent climate extremes, followed by the ensemble mean of HighResMIP in their intermediate resolution. For future climate, the projections indicate a consensus of temperature and precipitation climate extremes increase across most of the ten regions. Despite the uncertainties presented in this study, climate models have been and will continue to be an important tool for assessing risk in the face of extreme events.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s41748-022-00337-7.

Responses of Caribbean Mangroves to Quaternary Climatic, Eustatic, and Anthropogenic Drivers of Ecological Change: A Review

Mangroves are among the world's most threatened ecosystems. Understanding how these ecosystems responded to past natural and anthropogenic drivers of ecological change is essential not only for understanding how extant mangroves have been shaped but also for informing their conservation. This paper reviews the available paleoecological evidence for Pleistocene and Holocene responses of Caribbean mangroves to climatic, eustatic, and anthropogenic drivers. The first records date from the Last Interglacial, when global average temperatures and sea levels were slightly higher than present and mangroves grew in locations and conditions similar to today. During the Last Glaciation, temperatures and sea levels were significantly lower, and Caribbean mangroves grew far from their present locations on presently submerged sites. The current mangrove configuration was progressively attained after Early Holocene warming and sea level rise in the absence of anthropogenic pressure. Human influence began to be important in the Mid-Late Holocene, especially during the Archaic and Ceramic cultural periods, when sea levels were close to their present position and climatic and human drivers were the most influential factors. During the last millennium, the most relevant drivers of ecological change have been the episodic droughts linked to the Little Ice Age and the historical developments of the last centuries.

Trends in Reproductive Indicators of Green and Hawksbill Sea Turtles over a 30-Year Monitoring Period in the Southern Gulf of Mexico and Their Conservation Implications

Long-term monitoring programs of species at risk are efficacious tools to assess population changes, evaluate conservation strategies, and improve management practices to ensure populations reach levels at which they can fulfill their ecological roles. For sea turtles, annual nesting beach surveys are the most accessible method to estimating the population abundance and reproductive output, especially when these are done in primary nesting sites. However, little data exist on the long-term assessment of these parameters. Here, we present the trends of the nest abundance, female size, hatching, and emergence success of hawksbill (Eretmochelys imbricata) and green (Chelonia mydas) turtles at key nesting beaches in the southern Gulf of Mexico over 31 years (from 1990 to 2021). The nest abundance showed an increasing trend in both species as a result of the sustained protection and conservation effort, but there was no significant temporal trend in the annual female size, clutch size, hatching, and emergence success. However, these indicators showed decreasing mean values over the last decade and should be closely monitored. We suggest these decreases link to the combined effects of ocean warming and anthropogenic pressures affecting the sea turtle foraging grounds. Aside from protecting key nesting sites, protecting and restoring crucial foraging habitats should be an immediate priority requiring international cooperation.

Quantifying the Annual Cycle of Water Use Efficiency, Energy and CO2 Fluxes Using Micrometeorological and Physiological Techniques for a Coffee Field in Costa Rica

Coffee is one of the most commonly traded agricultural commodities globally. It is important for the livelihoods of over 25 million families worldwide, but it is also a crop sensitive to climate change, which has forced producers to implement management practices with effects on carbon balance and water use efficiency (WUE) that are not well understood due to data scarcity. From this perspective, we propose crop canopy coupling to the atmosphere (Ώ) as an index of resilience and stability. We undertook an integrated observational approach for the scaling-up of measurements along the soil–plant–atmosphere continuum at different stages of the coffee crop phenological cycle. Additionally, we develop this perspective under pronounced climatic seasonality and variability, in order to assess carbon balance, WUE, and agroecosystem resilience in a sun-grown coffee field. Further, we devised a field layout that facilitates the measurement of intrinsic, instantaneous, and actual water use efficiency and the assessment of whether coffee fields differ in canopy structure, complexity, and agronomic management and whether they are carbon sources or sinks. Partitioning soil and canopy energy balances and fluxes in a sun-grown coffee field using eco-physiological techniques at the leaf and whole plant levels (i.e., sap flow and gas exchange), as proposed here, will allow the scaling-up to whole fields in the future. Eddy covariance was used to assess real-time surface fluxes of carbon, gross primary productivity (GPP), and evapotranspiration, as well as components of the energy balance and WUE. The preliminary results support the approach used here and suggested that coffee fields are CO2 sinks throughout the year, especially during fruit development, and that the influence of seasonality drives the surface–atmosphere coupling, which is dominant prior to and during the first half of the rainy season. The estimated WUE showed consistency with independent studies in coffee crops and a marked seasonality driven by the features of the rainy season. A plan for the arborization of the coffee agroecosystem is suggested and the implications for WUE are described. Future comparison of sun- and shade-grown coffee fields and incorporation of other variables (i.e., crop coefficient-KC for different leaf area index (LAI) values) will allow us to better understand the factors controlling WUE in coffee agroecosystems.

Drone-Based Hyperspectral and Thermal Imagery for Quantifying Upland Rice Productivity and Water Use Efficiency after Biochar Application

Miniature hyperspectral and thermal cameras onboard lightweight unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) bring new opportunities for monitoring land surface variables at unprecedented fine spatial resolution with acceptable accuracy. This research applies hyperspectral and thermal imagery from a drone to quantify upland rice productivity and water use efficiency (WUE) after biochar application in Costa Rica. The field flights were conducted over two experimental groups with bamboo biochar (BC1) and sugarcane biochar (BC2) amendments and one control (C) group without biochar application. Rice canopy biophysical variables were estimated by inverting a canopy radiative transfer model on hyperspectral reflectance. Variations in gross primary productivity (GPP) and WUE across treatments were estimated using light-use efficiency and WUE models respectively from the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), canopy chlorophyll content (CCC), and evapotranspiration rate. We found that GPP was increased by 41.9 ± 3.4% in BC1 and 17.5 ± 3.4% in BC2 versus C, which may be explained by higher soil moisture after biochar application, and consequently significantly higher WUEs by 40.8 ± 3.5% in BC1 and 13.4 ± 3.5% in BC2 compared to C. This study demonstrated the use of hyperspectral and thermal imagery from a drone to quantify biochar effects on dry cropland by integrating ground measurements and physical models.

Tropical Convection in the Caribbean and Surrounding Region during a Regional, Warming Sea-Surface Temperature Period, 1982–2020

Warming sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) have implications for the climate-sensitive Caribbean region, including potential impacts on precipitation. SSTs have been shown to influence deep convection and rainfall, thus understanding the impacts of warming SSTs is important for predicting regional hydrometeorological conditions. This study investigates the long-term annual and seasonal trends in convection using the Galvez-Davison Index (GDI) for tropical convection from 1982–2020. The GDI is used to describe the type and potential for precipitation events characterized by sub-indices that represent heat and moisture availability, cool/warm mid-levels at 500 hPa, and subsidence inversion, which drive the regional Late, Early, and Dry Rainfall Seasons, respectively. Results show that regional SSTs are warming annually and per season, while regionally averaged GDI values are decreasing annually and for the Dry Season. Spatial analyses show the GDI demonstrates higher, statistically significant correlations with precipitation across the region than with sea-surface temperatures, annually and per season. Moreover, the GDI climatology results show that regional convection exhibits a bimodal pattern resembling the characteristic bimodal precipitation pattern experienced in many parts of the Caribbean and surrounding region. However, the drivers of these conditions need further investigation as SSTs continue to rise while the region experiences a drying trend.